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Rate My Team :: Volume 3
by Surge
Published: April 13, 2008, 3:59 pm
Fantasy Playmakers has a roster management message forum available for members to post their team to get several opinions on the team's talent and how to improve their squad for a championship run. I'll be doing the same thing but with a lot more depth and substance. My goal is to give as much advice as possible this season to teams hoping to take home their league trophies. Everything stated unless otherwise noted is obviously an opinion (pretty much everything that isn't a number), and everybody has one. So don't look at me as anything more than one commenter among many who could tell you how to adjust your roster and fiddle with the waiver wire. Remember, these articles are rather in-depth, so I won't be able to handle more than two or three teams a week, and it's first-come, first-served. Take a look at my grading criteria. Details are at the bottom on how to get in touch with me. Team Number 1 (Kyle, Maryland)
League Type: Dynasty, H2H
Number of teams: 18
Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL
Stat Categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
2008HittersAs I usually do, let's begin with the infield. C Kurt Suzuki (OAK - C)
1B Prince Fielder (MIL - 1B)
2B Brandon Phillips (CIN - 2B)
3B Akinori Iwamura (TB - 3B)
SS Derek Jeter (NYY -SS)  Fielder and Phillips are studs. Crushing fifty home runs last season, the 24-year old Fielder is already one of the elite power hitters in the game today. He's also one of only seven players who can claim to have knocked in 100 runs and score 100 in '07. Just as impressive was the increased walk rate per nine innings, from 9.4 in 2006 to 13.6 in 2007. Fielder seems like the type who'll avoid slumps partly because of the walks but also because he continually changes his approach. Sure, he's a bit portly1 though his new vegetarian diet may change that, but Fielder can flat out rake and has done so since the minors2. His only concern should be a new contract. As for Phillips, I've mentioned him as a guy who should threaten for a 30/30 season yet again with the only fear being his career year as a mirage. The pathetic 4.8 BB/9 in his arsenal scares me3. However, The Reds had no such fear giving him a four-year extension. At 27, the speedy second baseman is entering his peak, and he's in just his third full season as starter. As a cleanup this season, Phillips should be in line for excellent ribbies totals not associated with the second base position. Expect a decrease in batting average with his high K rate and low walk rate. Also, his power should fall. He wasn't much of a flyball hitter (35%) so 20-25 homers is more in line with his averages. Derek Jeter is a top 6 or 7 shortstop. His BB/9 fell last year, but the cologne-selling, hotty-dating 33-year old will score runs in that Yankee lineup. His durability is excellent4, and even though he cut his steals in half last year, an NL-style manager like Joe Girardi should change that in the positive direction. He possesses a sterling batting average as well, so Jeter's lack of power shouldn't be a big detriment. At the other end of the spectrum from Jeter is the relatively-unknown Kurt Suzuki. The forgotten catcher in the A's system the past few years thanks to Moneyball and Jeremy Brown, who is now out of baseball, Suzuki is a capable backstop. He was a .283 hitter in the minors while hitting 25 homers in 1,283 at-bats. In 213 at-bats, he only hit .249, but his good walk rate got him on base plenty of times. That will not help in much with the A's, though, since that team can't see straight at the plate. If he gets the 430 at-bats he should, he could be a 50/50 RBI/RS guy but likely hit around .260 to .265 at best. He's a borderline starter in an 18-teamer. We finally come to Iwamura at the hot corner. As a guy who strikes out a lot, that batting average seems more like luck. His BABIP was at .359, and since nobody will confuse Iwamura with an elite hitter like Alex Rodriguez or David Wright, expect that BABIP to regress to .300 and his batting average to hit the .260s. He doesn't possess much in terms of power or speed, but he's a good roto player because he does a bit of both. That doesn't come into play with an H2H league, so you're really hoping for good runs scored numbers from him. Since he bats first for the Rays, that should come into fruition in the form of 85-95 runs scored. Like Suzuki, however, he's also a borderline 18-team starter.
1. 270? David Wells had that weight at his peak physical form.
2. .297 / .398 / .524 with 91 doubles and 91 homers in 1,635 at-bats
3. Eleventh-worst in baseball for players with the minimum number of at-bats
4. At least 154 games played four straight seasons OF Carlos Beltran (NYM - OF)
OF Torii Hunter (LAA - OF)
OF Corey Hart (MIL - OF)
UT Ryan Theriot (ChC - 2B,SS) The outfield is very impressive. With 30-homer power and 20-steal speed, Beltran ranks as one of the better outfielders in baseball. After getting both his knees cleaned out via surgery in the offseason, his health is a concern. Still, Willie Randolph will allow him to steal bases if he's up for it. Beltran may hurt you a bit with consistency since his batting average will hover around .275, but with his excellent OBP and David Wright, the 31-year old center fielder should be a factor in RBI and RS once again. The injury would be my lone fear for Beltran, who struggled mightily in his first season with New York thanks to those injuries. So far, though, Beltran looks healthy and somewhat powerful, with six of his seven hits being doubles. Torii Hunter, meanwhile, joins a new team this year after being the face of the Twins. He's also coming off a career year in his contract season, but approaching 25 homers and 15 steals will be expected once again. His strikeout rate improved from 2006 from 19.4 to 16.8, but his BB/9 has decreased the past three seasons (8.4 / 7.5 / 6.3). The .505 slugging percentage he put up was the highest since 20025, and at 33, we can't expect that to improve again. The Angels lineup will provide the RBI and RS opportunities, and he is expected to be Vladdy's protection. We'll see how that works. He's still a heavy groundball hitter possibly meaning dips in homers, but expect that average to hover around .280 or .285 since he's got that K-rate down. Finally, Corey Hart's namesake doesn't devalue him whatsoever. 20/20 isn't out of the question as the 26-year old is closing on his prime. RBI should improve as he bats sixth in the Brewers order, but a weak BB/K ratio could spell problems for that .295 batting average. He should still hit .280 or so. At utility, you've got Theriot. I spoke way too much about The Riot in my previous article, so please just gander over there for a statistical expectation. He seems backup worthy in an 18-teamer but a so-so starter even as a leadoff or 2-hole hitter. 5. Which was due to his increase in doubles (45) and not his home runs (28) which actually fell from '06, and his HR/FB rate actually fell from 18.3 to 15.1. BN Ryan Sweeney (Oak - OF)
BN Carlos Quentin (CWS - OF)
BN Mike Jacobs (FLA - 1B)
BN Miguel Montero (Ari - C) DL
BN Alex Gonzalez (Cin - SS) DL Now let's look at the bench. As of now, Ryan Sweeney is batting .364 with 3 RBI and 2 RS as the A's center fielder. Batting ninth, however, depletes the 23-year old's value right now. Carlos Gonzalez is in the wings ready to take over that spot as well, and Sweeney will be trying to hold him off. The former White Sox prospect6 put up solid if unspectacular minor league totals7. There might be some potential here, but it's not that much in the fantasy world. He's not a home-run hitter or a base-stealer, but there's a small chance he  develops into a 10/10 type. Quentin creates an interesting pair with Sweeney since he's pretty much the kid's replacement. Traded after a disappointing rookie season in Arizona8, Quentin will try to resurrect a promising minor league career9 into a major league one. The second chance might be short-lived for the power-hitting 25-year old who'll have to compete with the likes of Alexei Ramirez, Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson for at-bats next to Jermaine Dye. If he puts together a solid campaign, it probably will be in just over 400 at-bats. But most likely expect 270 at-bats with a .260-.270 average and 8-12 homers. Mike Jacobs should be a source of some power. He won't hit for much better than .275, but he's good for 20 HR and 75 RBI, modest numbers for a first basemen, but good-enough stats off the bench in such a deep league. Miguel Montero is among the top catching prospects in baseball and among the better options for fantasy owners with 61 minor league homers and a .291 average in 456 career games. In his callup last season, Montero hit 10 homers in 214 at-bats but only hit .214. Despite his top prospect status, don't expect more than ten homers again with around a .250 average. Alex Gonzalez is pretty much average for a shortstop. He'll start, he'll get benched, but he'll finish with a solid 12-15 HR campaign and a half-decent .260 average. The 31-year old is probably an OK utility starter if the matchups dictate it. Right now, though, Jeff Keppinger doesn't seem like he's losing his job at short1, so Gonzalez may have no worth after all. 6. Traded to the A's with top pitching prospect Gio Gonzalez in a deal for Nick Swisher.
7. .289 / .351 / .401 with 33 HR, 32 SB in 499 games.
8. .215 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 81 games. He got injured as well.
9. .312 / .427 / .526 with 55 HR, 19 SB, 169/187 BB/K in 379 games.
1. .342 with 2 HR and 7 RBI / 7 RS in 10 games. I think both power and speed have been gathered very well. This team should be up there in every offensive category. The infield is very strong with three guys at or near the top of their respective positions while the outfield has three guys who could be #1s or #2s on any 18-team league roster. A bunch of good power/speed combos combined with Fielder who is pure power and Jeter who is pretty much all speed. If Phillips remains at the top of his game, you'll finish in the top 3 in homers and steals, which should mean good RBI and RS numbers, too. This squad is pretty loaded for such a deep league. Grade: A-. PitchersSP Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos - SP)
SP Rich Hill (ChC - SP)
SP Ben Sheets (Mil - SP)
SP Greg Maddux (SD - SP)
P John Danks (CWS - SP)
P Matt Chico (Was - SP)
BN Joel Pineiro (StL - SP,RP)
DL Chuck James (Atl - SP) DL
Matsuzaka is an ace. He may not be a sub-3.5 ERA guy, but he puts up legitimate strikeout totals and will win his fair share assuming the run support comes through. Dice-K is also supposedly ready to use his full arsenal in any count, a year after Jason Varitek was calling fastball after fastball from the import. Ben Sheets is also an ace. That's when he's on the mound to pitch of course. Sheets has just 63 starts the last 3 years, but the affable Brewers' starter has shown what he can do when he's healthy with 15 K to 2 walks and no runs allowed in two starts. Assuming he makes 25-28 starts for the first time in four years, Sheets should put up 175+ strikeouts. Last year, his K rate fell to 6.75, the lowest since 2003's 6.40, but he's still capable of a strikeout per inning. If his stuff's back and he's mostly healthy, he'll be a #1 at age 29, a near-peak age for SPs. Right now, I'll temper those expectations by calling him a #2 in an 18-teamer. Rich Hill should also be a #2 or #3. He could even be a #1 by year's end. Like your other two studs, Hill's a K per inning guy, and he should close in on 200 this year. He does allow homers, but walks are at a solid rate (2.91 per nine). His ERA maybe in the fours, the only thing keeping him from ace-potential, but if he cuts down on the bombs, he has a chance to create a 3-ace trio here. Greg Maddux is close to done, but he's still Greg Maddux2. Expect an ERA above four while he pitches another 170-180 innings yet again with 100 or so strikeouts. Nothing spectacular for Maddux, but he always seems to be a good #4 in these deep leagues. James was just deactivated, so obviously you should drop someone soon to let him reclaim his spot if you haven't done so already. James was shelled vs. the Rockies in his first start, and it maybe a bit of a concern. The 26-year old starter decreased both his K and walk rates3. He also allowed 32 home runs in just 161.1 innings. His ERA is a lot of the luck the last two years, so maybe his first start was a sign of a big downswing. As a flyball pitcher (FB rates of 53% and 49% the last 2 seasons), he'll have a tough time in the smaller NL parks. I wouldn't hesitate to drop him after a couple more bad outings. With a sub-4.5 ERA and those strikeout rates, he's still got a roster spot in a 18-teamer, but that ERA may go over 5 unless luck stays on his side. Danks is alright. He might have a 5 ERA as well, His minor league numbers show good strikeout rates (9.27) but pretty average numbers elsewhere4. If he puts together a solid year, it will be pretty surprising. Expect some strikeouts, but don't look for Danks to deliver on the potential the Rangers believed he possessed. The 25-year old Matt Chico had an average or slightly bad rookie season with the Nats5. A similar season would be alright for a #6 pitcher in a deep league. He needs to work with his flyball rate (46%) before he becomes anything special. His minor league numbers6 portend to alright stuff, but he isn't going to blow anyone away anytime soon. Joel Pineiro put up pretty solid numbers7 for a flier in a deep league. If he stays in the rotation (and why wouldn't he with the Cards rotation being a mess?), Pineiro might be a decent #6 or #7 starter. He isn't the stud he was at a younger age with the M's, but the 29-year old did reach 90-92 on his fastball in his recent training session following irritation in his right shoulder. If healthy, he might put up a sub-4.5 ERA with 8-10 victories and around 90-100 strikeouts in 150 IP. 2. Whatever the hell that means.
3. 6.88 K rate to 6.47; 3.55 walk rate to 3.24.
4. 426.1 IP, 4.20 ERA, 426 HA, 48 HRA, 3.3 BB/9.
5. 167 IP, 94/74 K/BB, 4.62 ERA, 26 HRA
6. 548.1 innings, 3.73 ERA, 8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 56 HRA
7. 97.2 innings, 4.33 ERA, 60/26 K/BB, 14 HRA, 11 starts, 31 relief appearances
RP Brian Wilson (SF - RP)
RP Taylor Tankersley (Fla - RP)
RP Derrick Turnbow (Mil - RP)
BN Brad Lidge (Phi - RP) DL
BN Luke Hochevar (KC - P) NA
The bullpen's alright. Lidge could be a stud closer. I think he's due with the bad history in Houston. People say Pujols messed him up with one pitch, but Lidge is the only reliever in baseball capable of 120 strikeouts if he pitches the innings. He notched his first save of the season last night, and we'll see how he does in that role with Citizen's Bank being so small. But with such a great strikeout rate, expect him to dominate with the occasional mistake here and there. But Philly could do a lot worse8. Wilson may keep the job, may not. They have Tyler Walker whose main problem is being Tyler Walker, but Wilson does have the stuff to stay in that role even with unimpressive ERA and WHIP totals. Turnbow lost his closer job, but he might be a capable middle reliever. He had an ugly 4.63 ERA last year, but that was mainly bad luck. He struck out 84 in 68 innings but also walked 46. His so-so control could be a huge headache all year, but he's capable of repeating his '05 numbers9 if he gets his head on straight. Right now, the Brewers have their closer in Eric Gagne, which should last a good week or two more. After that, Turnbow has a good opportunity of nabbing that job and being a fantasy surprise just like he was that 2005 campaign. Tankersley could be one in line for the Marlins job if Kevin Gregg is dealt mid-season. In 47.1 innings last year, Tank had a 49/29 K/BB with a 3.99 ERA, and he didn't allow a run over his final ten innings while striking out 11. Most likely, however the lefty specialist will likely stay in that role using his slider as his out pitch. This year, he got murdered by the Bucs in one game to the tune of four runs, but he should be rather consistent with only a hiccup or two along the way. Hochevar was the Royals and the draft's first pick a couple years back, but he had a tough time in the minors in '071. His strikeouts and walks were excellent, but he was plenty hittable in his two stops at Wichita and Omaha. Hell, the Royals should have no problem moving him into the rotation since he does project as a future #1 or #2. As a former no. 1 pick, the 24-year old still has plenty of potential. 8. Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, etc, etc.
9. 67.1 IP, 64/24 K/BB, 39 saves, 1.74 ERA, 5 HRA 1. 26 starts, 4.86 ERA, 163 HA, 138/47 K/BB, 24 HRA in 152 IP,
This team's strong in pitching as well. There's one guy who'll be among the league leaders in strikeouts in Dice-K, and Sheets's health will determine how you finish this season. I like Rich Hill a lot, but many scouts do not for some reason (I've heard the Cubs rotation referred to as Zambrano and four others). Maddux is as consistent as pitchers come and he's being doing it since the Reagan Administration. James could be solid, but his skill isn't as good as his numbers suggest. Pineiro, Danks, and Chico need to combine for at least one good start every now and then to justify keeping any of them, but this staff is still strong. The bullpen only two closers, though Turnbow looks like he'll get his shot soon2. Two should be enough to sustain decent saves totals, and Lidge should deliver Maddux-like strikeout totals in about half as many innings. If Hochevar gets called up, he's a wait-and-see in terms of using him in '08. For such a deep league, having two aces (even if one's a 25-start candidate at best) and a stud #3 in Rich Hill is pretty damn impressive. Add two closers, and the pitching seems very solid.
Grade: B+.
2. Gagne's 1-for-3 as a closer as of right now.
Overall: A-.
I'd worry about Sheets's injury, but the offense and pitching combo should allow you to finish third at worst. A couple minor moves for the bench could make this team unstoppable because if someone goes down, you're gasping for air. 2009 and BeyondHittersThe future looks bright. Fielder is not even at his peak, and Phillips has just reached it. The outfield consists of two 31-year olds, but with all the advancements in the medical field for athletes, 31's the new 28. These guys could go another 6-7 years. Hart, meanwhile, is just 26. Jeter, at 33, is the only one I'd worry about a big decline in the next 2-3 seasons. His defense has been atrocious over his career, so the Yanks may consider moving him even with the whole “intangibles” thing. Jacobs is 27, but he's already shown what he's capable of, expecting anything more would be stupid. The rest of the bench and utility options are fairly youthful. PitchersDice-K is 27, but he could pitch another 7-9 seasons. Hill is also around his peak at 28 with two seasons under his belt. Sheets is 29. Maddux is 42, but with his style and Petco, he could go for another 3-4 seasons and chase 400 victories. Danks (23) and Chico (almost 25) are the young guys, but neither oozes potential. James is 26, and he's had two solid seasons under his belt, even though as I've mentioned twice, his skill hasn't been to impressive. Pineiro's the only one in his 30s. Wilson's got the best future of your relievers at 26. Lidge is 31 and will be a free agent this summer, we'll see where that leads him. Turnbow's 30, but he's still got plenty of stuff to be a strikeout beast for the next couple seasons. Tankersley's 25, and we'll see if Florida will consider him at closer with other relievers like Lindstrom and Justin Miller around. Hochevar's your best prospect, and KC would love to see what he's got. Watch the minors and see if this kid lives up to his potential or if it's all talk. ProspectsMinors:
Chase Headley
Scott Elbert
Travis Snider
Carlos Gonzalez
Will Inman
 Headley is one of the best 3B prospects in baseball. The 24-year old tore through the Texas League last year with twenty homers and 38 doubles in 433 at-bats, a .330 / .437 / .580 line. Usually, 30% XBH are a good sign for future power, and Headley's well over that at 44%. He did have a high strikeout rate (26%) but walked plenty (74 times) meaning he might be a high-walk, high-K type. Currently, the Padres are trying to get the masher into left-field since third is occupied with Kevin Kouzmanoff. He did play well there in the spring, He's only gone 7-for-31 at triple-A Portland, but the future's bright as he continues to get opportunities at successive levels. Elbert is also a top prospect. The former 17th overall selection had arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder last summer which limited him to just fourteen innings. In 2006, the 22-year old struck out 173 batters in 156 innings, walking 85 and allowing 15 HR. The lefty has the potential to be a #1 and #2 with a 94 MPH fastball and a strong curve. His third pitch is a work in progress, but Elbert's got time. The injury is a concern, however, but Dodgers management was pleased with his rehabilitation. He should be in the majors next season. Carlos Gonzalez was traded from the Diamondbacks to the A's. It shouldn't be a knock on him like Quentin since he did get traded for an ace in Dan Haren. With the DBax, he hit .286 / .341 / .476 over his minor league career with 74 HR and 47 steals in 540 games. He challenged Sweeney for the starting spot in center, but lost out in the spring. It's only a matter of time, though, before the 22-year old gets his shot. Like Headley, he reached the 30% XBH mark (39%) but his patience needs plenty of work (162/455 BB/K). With one of the better arms in the minors, he'll get his opportunity to play in the outfield when the A's deem he's ready. Travis Buck and co. won't hold him back much longer. Travis Snider also reached the 30% XBH mark (40%) in his seasons at rookie league and single-A. The 20-year old is still a pup, so his aggressiveness (49/129 BB/K) is not surprising. His .316 / .388 / .538 line in the minors is pretty good. Snider is one of Riccardi's few early high school selections suggesting he has something that the Jays like to nab him in the first round. It seems he has the potential to develop into a strong hitter in the Toronto lineup. His balance and swing are solid, and Snider also can hit to all fields. The only worry is his bulky physique may leave him without a position on defense forcing him to DH, but that bulk will help in the power game. He was hurt to begin this season and had to DH as a result, but he has begun throwing in recent days. Finally, there's Brewers 21-year old Will Inman. Inman was dealt for Scott Linebrink last year in one of the better deals in recent years for the Padres. Inman put up better numbers with the Padres double-A system than the Brewers3. But his skill level in K/BB was still very impressive in both leagues. After falling to the third round, the Brewers signed him. It wasn't long before Inman dominated the minors his first two campaigns. Until the last year or so, he hasn't been allowed to use much more than the fastball, but that fastball was dynamite. He pounds the strike zone and won't get behind too many hitters. Expect him in the majors next year, and though he'll likely be in the 'pen, he's definitely worth having around. 3. 8 GS, 39.2 IP, 42/16 K/BB, 7 HRA, 5.45 ERA vs. 7 GS, 41 IP, 40/19 K/BB, 6 HRA, 4.17 ERA Future: B+. In the present and future, this team looks spectacular. The infield may only have a couple losses in Jeter and Iwamura over the next couple seasons, but everyone else is primed for strong campaigns over the next five seasons. The outfield is a bit old outside Hart, but that's not a big deal nowadays. The pitching consists of guys all at their peak. Right now, I don't see a weakness. Maybe the bench could come back to haunt you, but you have plenty of dependable players minus Sheets. Really, this team should be competing for a title in the next two to three seasons. If the prospects live up to expectations, there's a chance this team will be feeding prospects into a strong major league roster for the next two to three seasons. Looks like you know how to build a dynasty team.
Team Number 2 (Geoff, Illinois)
League Type: Roto
Number of teams: 10
Roster Positions: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN
Stat Categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
C Johjima, Kenji C SEA
C Martin, Russell C LA
1B Butler, Billy 1B KC
2B Kent, Jeff 2B LA
3B Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY
SS Renteria, Edgar SS DET
OF Guerrero, Vladimir OF ANA
OF Hawpe, Brad OF COL
OF Lee, Carlos N. OF HOU
DH Figgins, Chone 3B ANA
BN McLouth, Nate OF PIT
BN Delgado, Carlos 1B NYM
BN Kemp, Matt CF LA
P Bedard, Erik SP SEA
P Young, Chris R. SP SD
P Carmona, Fausto SP CLE
P Oswalt, Roy SP HOU
P Gorzelanny, Tom SP PIT
P Billingsley, Chad SP LA
P Corpas, Manny RP COL
P Soria, Joakim RP KC
P Wilson, Brian RP SF
HittersWell, first thing's first Geoff. You obviously had the first pick overall. If you didn't have the first pick overall, quitting in the league might be a suitable option because these idiots shouldn't be in fantasy baseball. Alex Rodriguez is the best fantasy option, period. Hell, he's possibly the most obvious number one selection if we had a consensus of the four major sports. A solid projection is 45-50 homers with at least 135 RBI and 120 runs scored with a batting average over .300, close to .315. Also, add in 20 steals because he'll get bored on the base paths. Now, your job Geoff was to build around perhaps the most complete player in the fantasy world. At catcher, you're loaded. With two options, you got the second best at his position (regardless of his early struggles) and Johjima ain't chopped liver, either. But at the same time, I hate drafting catchers early. I know Martin could put up an unheard of 20/20 campaign for a backstop, but if you take him in the  third round, you're banking that you'll find some major studs in the later rounds at the other positions. Martin, though, could give you a 20/20 season with 80+ RBI and around 70+ RS. The problem is Martin is a high groundball hitter. I think his homers will more than likely fall to the 15-17 range, but expect everything else to remain constant or even improve. The 31-year old Johjima has done very well in his two seasons in the states. He doesn't walk as much as Martin, but he strikes out half as often (16.5% to 8.5%). Johjima should be around .290 again, but his '07 production fell by a decent total from '06. Part of the reason is he grounds into a ton of double plays (37 in two seasons) because of so-so speed. So far this year, he and Martin have been atrocious1. That should turn around if it hasn't already by the time this article is published. At first, you decided to go with Billy Butler. Few players ooze upside like Billy Butler. His minor league stats2 portend to some astronomical major league numbers. Of course, the 22-year old's problem has nothing to do with the bat. The Royals have had difficulties finding a position for the natural masher, as he can't really play third, and when he was moved to left he struggled with flyballs and route-running, just like the receivers in Kansas City3. But as a full-time DH, Butler dominated the second half of the '07 season with Mike Sweeney on the DL leading the squad in slugging (.447) while putting up eight homers and 52 RBI in 92 games. That was his rookie campaign. With a full year at DH, Butler should hit and hit plenty (.414 right now) but KC will make RBI and RS opportunities hard to come by. 15-20 homers, though, and with a .300+ average it will be tough to bat fifth and still not knock in 80 runs. Those aren't elite first baseman numbers, and I don't think he has any business starting in a 10-teamer, but he could pay dividends if he has the Travis Hafner potential people allude to. Jeff Kent is a serviceable second baseman. Sure, he's 40 and missed 73 games the past two seasons, but no one can say Kent can't still rake. Last year he fell one RBI short of his eleventh 80-RBI season and two runs short of his ninth 80-RS season. He still slugged .500, and his BB/K rate is still exceptional. The line drive rate (hits that aren't flyballs or grounders) fell from 22.9% to 17.5%, but Kent's FB rate was still over 44%. Clearly, even if he misses a few games in June or August, Kent can make up for it with a rather solid power campaign for a second baseman. 80-90 RBI are not of the question with an average hovering around .295. Oldies shouldn't be hitting like him, but he always seems to be a good buy. Rounding out the infield is my nemesis Edgar Renteria. Renteria isn't terrible, per se. He's batted first, sixth and seventh this year in the Majors best lineup, and Leyland hasn't made it clear exactly how the 32-year old will be used. Still, like Butler, Renteria doesn't deserve to start in a 10-teamer. His .332 average last season was more luck than anything4. Expect that luck to run out in the AL, where in his lone year with the Red Sox, Renteria hit just .276 with 100 strikeouts (second most in his career) and eight homers (only single-digit homer season since '98). He definitely won't leadoff when Granderson returns, so Renteria will be stuck in that six and seven hole. Yes, the Tigers are loaded, but Renteria isn't a power hitter. His flyball ratio hovers around 30% vs. a 45+% groundball ratio the past four seasons. 10 homers would be a solid year as would 10 steals. Those are nothing-special stats with a .295 average and 70 RBI/RS. He's a backup in this shallow a league.
1. As I write, the Johjima has gone 2-for-25 while Martin is 3-for-28.
2. .336 / .416 / .561, 68 home runs, 190/260 BB/K.
3. I still can't forget Freddie Mitchell signing with the Chiefs after being released from the Eagles.
4. .375 BABIP vs. a career .325 BABIP. His average should have been closer to .290, .295.
 The outfield does make up for some weaknesses. Vladdy is a stud hitter. .320 with 30 homers would be a disappointment. So last year was a bit of a disappointment. But his power was still around (45 doubles, .547 slugging), and his 11% walk rate was higher than a 10.8% strikeout rate vs. a 7.6% walk rate in '06. The one worry is his groundball rate has increased to 48.5% last season vs. a 43% career rate which explains the homer drop off. If age isn't to blame for such a dip, Vladdy could step up and have another 30-35 homer season with Torii Hunter providing some protection. 100+ RBI is obvious. Moving on, I love Carlos Lee. He can mash, hit for average and steal ten bases. Adding Tejada to the Stros offense makes it better, and even though they expect Michael Bourn to live up to being a leadoff hitter (he won't), Lee will do plenty in RBI and RS just like last year5. I mentioned Hawpe before. Homers should go down, but expect plenty of RBI in the Rockies lineup. Figgins at DH is a good fit. So far, I've mentioned only around sixty steals in the players you've got, while Figgins might be able to reach that total by himself. However, Figgins was really lucky last year with BA so I expect a dip. He should fall between the 2007 average (.330) and the 2006 average (.267), so 2005's .290 BA seems appropriate. Batting leadoff, he actually has more walks than strikeouts this year, which would further improve his numbers. He's a 100-RS, 55-60 SB candidate if he's 100% healthy. But after missing 47 games last year, some can question that health status. Still, the Angels lineup is loaded and should provide the RS that at least makes him a 2-category player.
5. Career-high 119 RBI / 93 RS. Three straight 100+ RBI seasons in the NL (half season with Rangers is part of it, but you get what I mean, he loves the NL Central)
Now, I've put up the numbers that roto teams should strive for in each category6 for victory in a 12-teamer. The stats become slightly skewed in a 10-teamer, but it shouldn't be by a whole lot. For your team, I've found around 254 homers and 120 stolen bases. The other stats are too hard to predict, so HR and SB are half-decent harbingers for RBI and RS. Homers obviously mean more RBI and RS, SB usually leads to RS. I expect you to finish around third in homers/RBI/RS as of right now and maybe seventh or eighth in steals. But now I've got to head to the bench to see if I can add anything.
6. 900 RS / 250 HR / 950 RBI / 150 SB / .280-.285 BA
 I am a Matt Kemp fan. He tore up the second half of '07 to the tune of .337 / .361 / .529 with seven homers, seven steals, 29 RBI and 33 RS in 65 games. A 20/20 season isn't out of the question, and he could be better than Hawpe. Though the BA is not going to be near .320 or .3307, he'll be fine if he continues to start in LA even if he hits .270-.275. But that's the worry. Joe Torre could bench him for veteran help even with 60 homers and 69 steals in 404 minor-league games. He has upside for sure, which is more than I can say for Delgado. Sure, Delgado's got a fine bat when he's healthy. The problem is it's hard to find healthy major leaguers at age 35. His slugging fell before .500 for the first time since 1996 and the .258 average, 24 homers, 87 RBI and 71 RS were ALL his lowest in a full season ever. His 52 walks were also the lowest in a full season, the walk rate dipping below 10% (8.8%) for the first time since '95. Clearly, Delgado was not Delgado last year. It seems age has caught up with him. However, there is a chance of a resurgence. He is in a contract year and still had a pretty darn good season for a down year for him. His second half looked better8 than that first half. But his power also fell in the second half with eight doubles and ten homers vs. 22 doubles and 14 homers. He's a risk, but it's a risk worth taking. Nate McLouth, meanwhile, is wholly dependent on not living up to the usual Pirate hitter. He should score 75-80 runs as the leadoff hitter, perhaps more, and he can steal 20-25 bases, and that should help even though finding him a spot in your lineup will be difficult. He's an OBP guy, however, and strikes out too often to help in BA. At best, the center fielder is a .270 hitter. He does bring modest power as well, perhaps 10-12 homers. I think he's borderline in terms of worth for a 10-teamer. I know he's off to a hot start this season, but when percentages play in, expect a major fall. Then again, who would have guessed Curtis Granderson would have turned into a top ten OF? The steals are excellent to keep around, and if he adds to those steals a .290 BA and 100 runs scored with 15 HR, well, you just got some icing9.
7. 22+% K rate last year, just a 5% walk rate and a .417 BABIP.
8. .285 BA vs. 242; .375 OBP vs. .308; 47 K vs. 71;
9. Strawberry, of course.
There's plenty of room for improvement. By adding catchers like Martin and Johjima, you cost yourself big time elsewhere. The outfield has two elite hitters, and of course you have A-Rod. The worry is this team only seems mediocre. A-Rod will likely keep you in the title hunt by himself, but I fear there's still some weaknesses. If one of your good players has a subpar season, you have no shot at a title. Butler needs to breakout beyond the 15-18 homers most expect. This offense isn't bad, but it's just not title-ready yet. A couple pieces and a little luck with Butler and either Hawpe or Kemp, and I could be wrong. But for now, it's pretty average.
Grade: C+.
Pitchers Pitching is fairly loaded. Erik Bedard's the third best pitcher behind Johan and Peavy. He'll be among the AL leaders in Ks, but Geoff, you should refer to the previous article for a full evaluation. Chris Young is also a stud. With strikeouts and flyballs (in Petco) he should dominate once again. His walk rate (3.75) continues to increase each year, so that's the big worry with the 6-foot-10 hurler. But his stature makes him a lot harder to hit as evidenced by low BABIP's the last two years. And pitching in a huge park doesn't hurt either. Carmona is one guy I just avoided this year. His groundball rate was at a remarkable 64%, and he had a 2.97 GB/FB ratio. Of course, he depends a lot on his fielding, which isn't that bad behind him in Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera and Blake. But the worries are his low strikeout rate (5.73) and a huge upswing in innings1. Now, to be fair, Carmona pitched in Winter League ball after 2006 to work that arm because he was prepared to become a starter. However, the fact that innings spikes do portend to future injuries is a fear that should leave Carmona off the top 20 starter list. Depending on purely wins, ERA and WHIP (each one difficult to predict) is dangerous. Oswalt, meanwhile, has been declining in K rate the last 4 seasons and his walk rate reached a career-worst 2.55 last season. But he's a solid groundball pitcher who will be around 200 innings once again. The only fear would be those numbers continually crumbling, but Oswalt's ERA usually stays around 3.10 or 3.20, so he should be a fine #2 in a 10-teamer, and you got him as your #3. Gorzelanny, like Carmona, had an innings spike as well by 40 innings. Unlike 2006, Gorzelanny had a weak GB/FB ratio (1.06) vs. a 1.4 campaign in 11 starts the previous year. He does walk a few too many and strikes out only 6 per nine innings. His ERA should still be in the 3.9 or 4 range this year, but the Bucs won't get him much in terms of wins, and his strikeout total leaves much to be desired. WHIP isn't that impressive even when he was good (1.4 last season) so he could probably be improved upon in a small league. Billingsley, meanwhile, could be a really solid starter this year. The 23-year old dominated the minors with 460 strikeouts in 405 career innings (10.22 K rate) with just 26 home runs allowed and a 3.18 ERA. Following a so-so rookie year in terms of strikeouts and walks (59/58 K/BB) he had a 141/64 K/BB in 147 innings as both a starter and reliever. He's not much of a groundball pitcher, but he doesn't have to be a great one at Dodgers Stadium. With a 97 MPH fastball, the 23-year old should be ready for another solid season and could be a top 40 pitcher in 2008. Worries are his mediocre walk rate and switching between starter and reliever for the Dodgers, but expect him to be in the rotation and put up 15 wins and good numbers all around.
1. 102.1 in minors and majors in ‘06 to 230 in the regular- and post-season in ‘07
Corpas and Soria have been mentioned. Both are 35 saves guys, Corpas possibly close to 40 or 45 saves if the Rockies follow last year's example. They're close to top ten closer-status already, but both seem top 15 as of now. Wilson is risky. He might be good enough to keep the job behind a solid minor league career2, but he still walks too many and the Giants won't help him much in the wins column. He'll allow a few runs here and there because of the free passes, but if he keeps the job 25 saves is probable with a decent WHIP and sub-4 ERA. It's not like the Giants have much in the bullpen to pressure Wilson, either.
2. 183.2 career innings, 180/80 K/BB, 146 HA, 9 HRA, 3.00 ERA
So the pitching's excellent. Looking at the numbers you'd like to see for pitchers in a 12-team roto league3, your team stacks up fairly well, Geoff. The weakness is strikeouts with Carmona and Gorzelanny. I worry depending on ERA and WHIP from those two could be problematic. Plus, the strikeouts are rather low for Oswalt as well. Still, you have six starters, so depth should help you out. I do also worry a bit about WHIP with a couple guys. However, wins should be plentiful and surpass the 90-win plateau. The saves should be top 3 if not better. If you weren't dependent on a couple guys I really don't prefer in smaller leagues especially, this grade for pitchers would be higher. Still, you could conceivably win two stats while not blowing a few others either.
3. 85 wins / 70 saves / 950 K / 3.85 ERA / 1.3 WHIP
Grade: B.
Overall Steals are a weakness, and power is questionable. With A-Rod, you could still pull out both stats, but putting another base stealer in the lineup or adding a power/speed combo would make this team loaded. You could trade Carmona and that might actually raise your standing with my rating system, but if you want to keep him, scour the wires for someone who should provide cheap steals like a Dave Roberts, Nyjer Morgan, Joey Gathright, etc. If you find one, maybe dealing away some guys like Hawpe and a starter for a better starter could work out. Plus, finding Kemp a starting spot on your team seems preferable to any waiver wire move as of right now. This team needs some work, but it's got the talent to at least contend.
Grade: B-.
GRADINGI've developed a grading style which I'll use to state your team's relative strengths: - A... minor improvements necessary, should be first or second (players' health and stupidity pending)
- B... you'll finish in the top half of your league, and I'll suggest what you should do to improve.
- C... you'll be in the middle of the pack, may be only good in one area, hitting or pitching, or just a couple categories.
- D... needs some major overhaul, the team is not well-drafted or well-built and has too many weak spots and players I don't like.
- F... might want to re-consider this whole fantasy baseball hobby.
To contact Surge, send an attachment with your team roster, rules, league size, your own opinions, and possible free agents you are looking at to surge5102002@yahoo.com. You can also PM me with the same info to the username, Surge .
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