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Rate My Team :: Volume 4
by Surge
Published: April 20, 2008, 12:24 pm

Fantasy Playmakers has a roster management message forum available for members to post their team to get several opinions on the team's talent and how to improve their squad for a championship run. I'll be doing the same thing but with a lot more depth and substance. My goal is to give as much advice as possible this season to teams hoping to take home their league trophies. Everything stated unless otherwise noted is obviously an opinion (pretty much everything that isn't a number), and everybody has one. So don't look at me as anything more than one commenter among many who could tell you how to adjust your roster and fiddle with the waiver wire. Remember, these articles are rather in-depth, so I won't be able to handle more than two or three teams a week, and it's first-come, first-served. Take a look at my grading criteria. Details are at the bottom on how to get in touch with me.

League Type: Roto
Number of teams: 10 (only 2 bench spots)
Stat Categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP

Hitters

C Hernandez, Ramon C BAL
C Lo Duca, Paul C WAS
1B Lee, Derrek 1B CHC
2B Uggla, Dan 2B FLA
3B Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY
SS Tejada, Miguel SS HOU
U Roberts, Brian 2B BAL
U Konerko, Paul 1B CHW

 Well, let's start with the catchers. Hernandez is among the best hitters at the catcher position when he's healthy as evidenced by a .291, 23 HR, 91 RBI campaign just two years ago. Of course, the slugger is now 31 and will be 32 in May, and he had an oblique injury in spring training. He's gone 7-for-42 this season so far, and it looks like the injury might be a small concern. If he does get healthy in the next few weeks, a .260 average with 12-15 homers would be solid expectations for the Orioles slugger. Paul Lo Duca can certainly hit for average, evidenced by his career .287 clip, but the 36-year old has lost any semblance of power from his peak seasons1. The Nats have Johnny Estrada around, but Lo Duca figures to be the main catcher, and so far he's gone 7-for-35 without a strikeout. It'll be interesting to see if the contact-hitting backstop can put up a 60-run season batting primarily sixth, but he should provide at least a .285-.295 BA. Derrek Lee can hit, and he's doing a ton of that this year2. 20-25 homers are solid if unspectacular for a first baseman, but Lee also provides batting average and good RBI and RS totals in a good Cubs lineup. He's consistent, rather durable (save 2006), and a top 10 first baseman. Konerko is also a pretty good first baseman. He has hit at least thirty homers four straight years. And though his slugging fell below .500 for the first time since 2003, Konerko can still rake. The White Sox provide a solid-enough lineup for 90 RBI once again, but expect low RS totals resembling '07 (71). His average fell, though, from .313 to .259 last season. That was due to a low line drive rate (17%) vs. his career average (21%). He's only 8-for-42 this season, and he's struggled with the line drives (12%). Power, though, should continue. A .260 average with 30 HR and 90 RBI is nothing to drop at the utility position. Brian Roberts is a beast base stealer. 50, again, would not be out of the question because he's got speed to burn. He's only 30, so he isn't slowing down that much. Add in a very improved walk rate (12.5% vs. 9% in 2006) and Roberts will be on base to steal as many times as he wants. He should also hit .290+, but the O's need some talent to bring him home for RS. Right now, Markakis and perhaps Luke Scott seem like their lone options. 10 HR would be nice, too. Dan Uggla, meanwhile, is all power. The 28-year old second baseman is near his prime and should belt 25+ HR for the third straight year, and another 31-HR campaign wouldn't be out of the ordinary. He even hit 49 doubles last season showing the power is capable of even reaching 40. But Uggla's high strikeout rate3 leads to a portended low batting average. .255 with 30 HR and 90 RBI would be solid numbers in Uggla's third year as a starter. A-Rod is A-Rod. .300+ BA, 45+ HR, 125+ RBI, 115+ RS, and even 20+ steals are golden. Miguel Tejada, though, has been declining in power4 the past four seasons. Now we learn the guy's actually 33 and not 31, a difference that isn't surprising considering the decline over the past couple seasons. However, the guy can still hit for average and hit 15-20 HR at least. Now in the NL, that total could reach 20 once again after falling to 18 in '07. Thanks to the lineup, he'll have the protection to get fastballs and the RBI and RS totals are still starter-worthy even in a ten-teamer. Let's hope the power makes a resurgence after a year in which he hit just 19 doubles with his 18 bombs, a year after he hit 37 doubles alone.

1. He once hit 25 homers in case anyone forgot.
2. In 13 games, Lee's 21-for-57 (.368) with a .422 OBP, 1.159 OPS and 5 HR, 12 RBI and 11 RS
3. 27% last season, batted .245 as a result
4. Slugging since 2004: .534 to .515 to .498 to .442

OF Byrnes, Eric CF ARI
OF Ibanez, Raul LF SEA
OF Kearns, Austin RF WAS
OF Teahen, Mark RF KC
BN Scott, Luke RF BAL

 Eric Byrnes is a fan favorite and for good reason. The guy plays all-out, but what's forgotten is he's got some talent, too. He has speed (50 steals) and decent power (.460 slugging) but mainly he has speed. He won't strike out a ton meaning a solid batting average in the .280, .290 range, and batting second allows him to rack up plenty of runs and some RBI. Many people expect a downturn, but his hitting is legit as is his speed5. The A's rarely allowed him to steal considering their philosophies, but Arizona is a lot more open to his skill set. A guy not known for any speed, Raul Ibanez is just a solid hitter. He didn't strike out 100 times just like Byrnes didn't last year, and fewer than 100 strikeouts usually means a .300 average or close to it. His homers fell from 33 to 21 in '07, and slugging from .516 to .480, but that was mainly due to a regression in HR/FB ratio (16.5% to 10.9%) which fell closer to his career average (12.6%). 20+ homers and a .290-.300 average would be solid totals along with good RBI numbers as the #3 hitter. Austin Kearns can hit for some power, 18-22 HR, but he won't be much more than a .260 average guy with good but not great RBI and RS totals (80s, maybe 90s if lucky). Washington doesn't have the lineup to  support him, and Kearns himself is a flawed player with strikeout rates and high groundball rates. His potential speaks more than his actual production, so expect him to do a little better than the average outfielder. Speaking of average outfielders, Mark Teahen is a 10/10 type. He had a weak third season6 after an 18-HR campaign in 2006, but that's what he is. He's switched between third and sixth in the Royals lineup, but the team has improved a bit with Butler in and Sweeney out. Expect slightly better RBI numbers, maybe in the 70s, but he won't live up to the no. 4 OF billing you've got him as. Luke Scott can hit for power. In 2005, he hit 31 in triple-A at 27 years old and 20 more at 28 last season. The reason he keeps ending up in the minors is partly because the Astros are morons, but it's also because they have some talent in their outfield. So the deal that sent Scott to Baltimore provided plenty of opportunity to showcase his 30-HR capabilities. He had 18 in just 369 at-bats in 2007, but he struck out 25% of the time resulting in a .255 average. Scott struggled with line drives with just 18% of his in-play balls resulting in them, 6% down from 2006. If he keeps that trend, he'll only hit .270 or so if he's lucky. This year, though, those numbers are back up and he's raking with a .368 average. He also has seven doubles displaying power that should leave the park during the summer in Camden Yards.

5. 114 steals in 475 minor league games
6. 7 HR, 13 steals, 60 RBI with 78 RS and a .285 AVG

Again, let's look at the necessary hitting benchmarks7 to win each stat in a 12-team roto league. You have 255 home runs right now. The thing is, those 250 home runs necessary to win a 12-teamer involve a 9-man starting lineup. Here, you've got 12 starters. Now it is a shallower league, but I'd think the number needed to win is closer to 300-330 than 255. In that case, you're a little better than mediocre with power. Moving Scott into the lineup over Teahen will hurt your BA but add around 15-20 homers. From your starters, you have around 125-135 steals. That won't get it done, as I think the number required to win that stat jumps to 175-185 in this league format. Your team's not loaded enough to make a big trade for some stud base stealer, but see if anyone on the waiver wire is worth acquiring when you fall behind in the speed stats. Uggla, Konerko and Kearns will hurt your batting average, but the team should be around .275 at the minimum thanks to Lee, A-Rod, Byrnes and Ibanez. I'd worry that this offense is very mediocre, but I don't see breakout players who could have surprise seasons. These are you-get-what-you-see types, and that does pose well for sustained production, but it does hurt you since aside from A-Rod, your power and speed combinations really are fairly average.

7. .285 AVG, 250 home runs, 150 stolen bases, 900+ RS, 950+ RBI

Grade: C-.

Pitchers

P Webb, Brandon SP ARI
P Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC
P Bannister, Brian SP KC
P Lowe, Derek SP LA P
P Marcum, Shaun SP TOR
P Francis, Jeff SP COL
P Lackey, John SP ANA
P Wainwright, Adam SP STL

Webb, Lackey and Zambrano make up a really potent top of the rotation. Webb will strike out 200 or so for the first time this season behind that unbelievably devastating sinking two-seamer and hellacious groundball rates. Zambrano's walks are a concern, and he could blow up, but he's always been a stud that I could hardly count on him struggling. His consistent innings pitched may also be a worry, but he looks like a never-tiring workhorse. Lackey's injured, and it may seem like a killer to have him out for a month, but over the final four-to-five months he should be one of the top 12 or 13 pitchers in fantasy. After that, Jeff Francis was who I would have considered the fourth best pitcher. Unfortunately, the British Columbia native has been in a malaise. He's allowed 12 earned runs in 11.1 innings with just 5 strikeouts to 4 walks. Now, it's a ridiculously small sample size, but nineteen hits and six homers allowed in two starts is never promising. He should climb outShaun Marcum and Adam Wainwright of it as I don't feel this is an injury. Brian Bannister, however, has been a true ace. After posting a 3.87 ERA for the Royals in his rookie season, the 27-year old has allowed two earned runs in 21 innings while striking out 13 versus five walks. His stuff, though, is hittable, so watch out for some regressions to the mean. An ERA under one just won't hold out, but so far, he's been a gem. A sub-4 ERA would not be surprising as he did that regularly in his time in the Mets farm system. Marcum's also been studly. With 20 strikeouts in 20 innings, Marcum's posted a sub-3 ERA and sub-1 WHIP. Marcum's never been a guy to give up walks8 but he gives up plenty gopher balls9. He does strikeout a lot evidenced by his strikeout per inning rate in the minors, and he's pretty athletic being a shortstop when he was drafted by the Jays. He possesses a low 90s fastball, but his breaking stuff has improved greatly from his time in the minors leading me to believe he's capable of having a couple really good years. He's definitely worth having around when he's hot. A 4.13 ERA last year wasn't bad either, so he's a comfortable option as long he gets the strikeouts. Lowe's a groundballer, obviously, and you know strikeout totals are going to be rather average, though he has 16 in 20 innings this season. His ERA should be all right as long as he's got his sinker working, and he'll pitch plenty of innings with a sub-4 ERA. Wins have been at a premium in his time with the Dodgers, but he'll be fine at his spot in your fantasy rotation. Wainwright came into 2008 the Cards' staff ace. That isn't saying much1, but he has lived up to the billing2. He averaged almost a strikeout per inning in the minors (8.85 K/9) , but last year he had just 136 in 202 innings versus his rookie year as a reliever when he posted 72 in 75 innings. If those strikeouts go up, he could be a top 25 pitcher by next year. His ERA can be sub-4 thanks to 1.4 GB/FB ratio from last year, but he needs to lower the walks per nine (3.12). He's only 26, so he's closing in on his peak seasons meaning he should improve from '07.

8. 1.47 BB/9 in the minors, 2.77 BB/9 last year
9. 27 HR in 159 IP last year, 20 HR in 131 IP the previous year between triple-A and the Bigs
1. Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse, Anthony Reyes / Brad Thompson
2. 2.78 ERA, 16/3 K/BB, 1.06 WHIP in 22.2 innings

P Cordero, Francisco RP CIN
P Soriano, Rafael RP ATL
P Kobayashi, M. RP CLE

Cordero is a top 10 closer. The NL Central has become a new home, posting a 2.98 ERA last year with an 86/18 K/BB a year after earning a 1.69 ERA in 26.2 innings following a trade from Texas to Milwaukee. He has had 60 saves in that time span, too. Since 2002, his strikeouts per nine innings have increased every year except 2006, which was still over 10 at 10.04. I'd worry a bit about his save opportunities in Cincinnati, a team that wins games by blowing out squads, and they don't win too often to make up for it with close games. Still, Baker will get him his work, and he should post 80+ strikeouts with a sub-4 ERA. 35 saves might be a little optimistic, however. Soriano is a good bet for 35 saves, and though he won't strikeout as many batters as Cordero, whiffing a batter per inning is still impressive. The elbow injury could be a big concern, though. Soriano's been DL'ed because of elbow problems before, and the elbow's never a good place to suffer an injury. Just watch what happens and be prepared to find someone if this injury is more serious than the time span of 15 days that he'll be out. Kobayashi could or could not close in Cleveland. With several excellent set-up men to such an awful closer in Joe Borowski, it's only a matter of time before Cleveland decides to give up this JoBo experiment3 and go with a new recruit. However, Kobayashi has yielded plenty of base runners in his own rightMasahide Kobayashi so far in the States, ten in 6.1 innings. His ERA has survived at 2.84, but we'll see if he can avoid the hits to make it as a closer. He does have the stuff: a mid-90s fastball, a cutting two-seamer and a hard-breaking slider. They signed him because guys like Rafael Betancourt (79 innings) and Rafael Perez (60 innings) needed some help. Masa's K/BB ratio in Japan was at four with 227 career saves. At 33, he should warrant closer consideration, especially if the Indians choose to keep Jensen Lewis, Perez and Betancourt where they are in the sixth-thru-eighth inning setup. We'll see who takes over when Eric Wedge finally takes Borowski away from the ninth inning.

3. 5+ ERA, 1.4+ WHIP, 8 blown saves last season. 2 more with 2 earned runs allowed per inning this season.

I like the starters. 950 strikeouts and 70+ saves are the requirements to win in a 12-team roto. Inflate those numbers a bit to adjust for the league format, and the winning numbers should be near 1,050 to 1,200-1,300 strikeouts and 90+ saves. The strikeouts are reachable. Webb and Zambrano will close in on 200, Lackey, Wainwright, Marcum, Francis around 150-160, and that's already 1,000. Add in all the other starters and relievers, and strikeouts should be top 2 or 3 at worst. Saves is a big concern. Soriano's injured and Masa might not close. 60 saves won't be enough to be top 3 or 4. Mediocrity is your best bet here. 85 wins is the usual goal in a 12-teamer, but they're tough to predict. I think there are up to 6 15-game winners on this staff. The other three could win 10-12 each or even more. This team is fine in the starting pitching department. In fact, if a guy like Bannister or Marcum keeps dealing, trade them away from some better hitters. Right now, pitching is a strength you can afford to trade. Your only worry is the saves.

Grade: B+.

Overall, this team won't win your league. A couple trades could help out, but the draft turned out pretty mediocre in terms of hitters. Your team has solid but unspectacular power hitters like Lee, Ibanez and Kearns. None are going to hit 30 homers even though their value is pretty good in fantasy. Building with guys like that, you need stud hitters, and you have only one power guy (A-Rod) and one speed demon (Roberts). This team should finish fourth or fifth if you manage well. I wouldn't be surprised if pitching could only carry you to sixth or seventh because of the subpar hitting. Make a move with a SP to acquire a good power hitter later this season, and I could be wrong. Right now, though, it doesn't look that great.

Grade: C+.

 

GRADING

I've developed a grading style which I'll use to state your team's relative strengths:

  • A... minor improvements necessary, should be first or second (players' health and stupidity pending)
  • B... you'll finish in the top half of your league, and I'll suggest what you should do to improve.
  • C... you'll be in the middle of the pack, may be only good in one area, hitting or pitching, or just a couple categories.
  • D... needs some major overhaul, the team is not well-drafted or well-built and has too many weak spots and players I don't like.
  • F... might want to re-consider this whole fantasy baseball hobby.

 

To contact Surge, send an attachment with your team roster, rules, league size, your own opinions, and possible free agents you are looking at to surge5102002@yahoo.com. You can also PM me with the same info to the username, Surge .

 





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