Adam Lind

The Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 5 runs a game this year (5th best in the AL) as opposed to 4.41 runs a game last year (4th worst in the AL). A big part of that is due to Adam Lind. A lot of young hitters take about 750 plate appearances to make the transition to the Majors and will then being to play at roughly the same level through their prime years. Before this season, Lind had 725 PAs. He is having an amazing season this year and has been one of the better hitters in the AL this season. Here is what he has done for fantasy teams this year:



2009 stats
14 HRs
48 RBIs
43 Runs
.303 BA
1 SB

In less PAs than last year, he's already easily surpassed his previous season highs in HRs and doubles. There is no denying that he's improved a lot this year. A big part of that is due to his increased patience which goes hand in hand with his pitch recognition. Before this season, Lind seemed to have trouble with breaking balls as many young hitters do. The quality of sliders/curveballs in the Majors is much, much better than in the minors. He has continued hitting fastballs and change-ups well this season but has also shown no weakness against breaking pitches where he struggled with in the past. Specifically with sliders where he was worth -1.26 runs per 100 pitches. This season: 1.65 runs above average.

And with better pitch recognition, comes better patience. Not only is his walk rate up, but he is also seeing more pitches per plate appearance. Before this year, he was walking at a 5.1% clip and had a 3.68 K/BB ratio. He was seeing 3.79 pitches per plate appearance. This year, he is walking at a 9.1% clip with a 1.89 K/BB ratio and seeing 4.18 pitches/PA.

Further evidence of his patience can be seen in what pitches he is swinging at. He's cut down on swinging the bat at pitches out of the strike zone while slightly increasing his contact rate on those pitches. Overall, he's swinging at less pitches while maintaining a similar contact rate as usual. This explains the increase in his LD rate (21.8% rate in 2009 vs. 18.7% before this season) as wel as his BABIP this season. While last year's BABIP he posted seemed to be more a result of luck, his .330 BABIP this season seems to be based more on skill than luck.

The improvements Lind has made this year match what one would expect from him based on his minor league numbers. He has shown more patience this year and is entering his expected peak years. That also explains the increased HR/FB ratio this season. Overall, there is little that Lind has done this season to look like he's due for any drop in production. Lind looks like he's finally been able to make the transition to the Majors.


All stats are through June 22, 2008. Stats are courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball-reference, and Fantasy Playmakers

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All stats updated through 5/20/08 and courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and of course Fantasy Playmakers.