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MLB Mailbag :: Volume 1
by Adam Hathaway
Published: March 12, 2008, 3:31 pm
Welcome to a new MLB season at fantasyplaymakers.com and thanks for clicking to read this. I hope that I serve you well and I promise you that I will answer all your questions to the best of my ability. I have decided to take over the FPM mailbag because I find it is the best way to interact with you. So once again thanks and enjoy.
First question I received was from Joe in Brooklyn:
A-Hat, Your Red Sox got lucky last year, but I hope you don't think that you will get by with 2 green pitchers in your rotation. What do you think? - Joe in Brooklyn
 Joe, Apparently you are a Mets fan since I know a Yankee fan would not be questioning the Red Sox rotation. Yes, the Red Sox have a couple of young guys that they are going to depend on, but they also have Schilling the bookmaker to help them out while he nurses his female reproductive organ injury. I am not worried since I know we still have Beckett, Dice-K, and Wake to bring order and intensity to this rotation.
A couple young starters really struggled last year after good 2006's. Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, Ervin Santana and Boof Bonser come to mind. Who could be a really low buy, high reward guy? - Surge from PA
Great question, Surge, I am going to break it down by each pitcher in question:
 Willis is the person in this list that I would say stay away from. He may pick up a bunch of wins but he is moving from the pitcher friendly National League over to the Hitter friendly American league. He changed teams, leagues, and also fan support. Detroit has way more fans that will not tolerate Willis going through a slump. The Marlins might have had 10 real fans at their games. The pressure and the DHs will get to him this season so be very wary of Dontrelle.
 Boof Bonser is going to suffer this season because more will be asked of him and he will not have a consistent team behind him. He is another like Santana that will have a high K count but his ERA will be above his 4.77 average. Pitching with small leads or pitching while your team is losing often damages young pitchers psyche and so Bonser will have a rough season, unless Minnesota plays better than expected.  Ervin Santana is hard to get a read on. He never really had a great ERA, his K's should be above 120 and he should improve from his disappointing season last year. I feel he was used to often in 2006 because he was too young to ask 200+ innings from. I feel that this could have been the reason he did not perform well in 2007. So look for an improvement in wins and Ks but maybe just a slight improvement on his career average ERA of 4.84.
 I think Bonderman may have suffered a bit from an extended season and then the World Series loss. I think he is the #1 by low guy right now even more so because his team is stacked from top to bottom. Look for his wins/ERA/WHIP to improve this season because he will be pitching a lot more comfortably with leads.
Also, how much do you put any weight on Spring Training? I'm watching some guys (see: Kendrick, Kyle) absolutely get torn apart this year. Todd Jones has given up 10 ER in 3.2 IP. Zito has a 22.09 ERA. Brian Bannister, Joe Blanton, Oliver Perez... but does it bode for poor performances this season? - Surge from PA
I don't think you should look to deep into spring training stats. Although I do feel someone like Zito is way overrated, his team stinks, and he did not pitch to expectations last season either. If a player is pitching poorly during spring I would look to how he closed out last season as an indicator of how he may start off this season. Here is a little indicator that shows not to be too concerned.
Jake Peavy had a spring training ERA of 4.05, but a regular season ERA of 2.54.
John Lackey had a spring training ERA 5.51, but a regular season ERA of 3.01
Brad Penny had a spring training ERA of 10.64, but a regular season ERA of 3.03
Fausto Carmona had a spring training ERA of 4.80, but a regular season ERA of 3.06
Dan Haren had a spring training ERA of 6.16, but a regular season ERA of 3.07
Chris Young had a spring training ERA of 5.14, but a regular season ERA of 3.12
This was just grabbed from looking at the regular season ERA leaders. I am sure if you compared stats you will find a lot more anomalies.
Which young Pirate starter do you think has more upside: Ian Snell or Tom Gorzelanny? - John from Pittsburgh
 Gorzelanny in my opinion has the build and stamina to be the starter with the most upside out of the 2. In the past 2 seasons he has produced sub 4 ERAs while Snell was only able to do it once.
The player under the age of 24 who is the most likely to hit at least 30 HR's during his career 5 times is ____________. - SSGT Anthony USMC
I have 2 players I feel can do this.
 The first is 21 year old Colby Rasmus the OF prospect in the St Louis Cardinals system. While in High School he hit 24 HRs in one season and passed Bo Jackson for the most HRs in the state for one season. In 2006 with the Cardinals minor league team, the High-A Palm Beach Cardinals, he started off slow and still ended the season with 16 HRs. Then he moved to the Double-A team in 2007 and hit 29 HRs.
 The second player is 22 year old Evan Longoria the 3b prospect for the TB Rays. In his 485 at bats in the minors he has 26 home runs. He may still be a year away from grabbing that starting job at 3b but he is another solid power hitting corner infield player coming through the Rays system.
Adam, I have a question about my keepers. I can only keep 5. I'm looking at keeping Guerrero, Cano, A. Ramirez, Hamels, Jeter and Mauer. Who should I leave off? I'm thinking Mauer, as catcher is fairly deep this year. What are your thoughts? - Dave in Reno, NV
Well Dave I once made the mistake of taking Mauer early in one draft and I paid the price. Mauer is a great young catcher and I truly feel he could be league MVP someday based on his work ethic and his ability to hit consistently. However ,I don't see you cutting anyone else you have on your roster to keep him on it. Like you have already mentioned, catcher is fairly deep this season and you can always pick one up in your draft.
A-Bombz, I had meatloaf for dinner last night and all I can say is I think it gets a bad wrap. Do you like meatloaf? - Brian in Fresno, CA
Brian I really do like meatloaf. I am trying to stay away from ground beef and my wife has found a much better alternative. She uses Italian spiced ground turkey instead! This makes an amazing meatloaf and there is nothing like the meatloaf sandwiches with cheese you get to have in the days following.
That's all I have time for this week guys but get your questions into me for next weeks edition of FPM Mailbag. fpmadmin@gmail.com
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