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Field of Streams :: 9/16/08
by Tenacious D-Store
Published: September 16, 2008, 2:43 pm
Welcome back for another edition of Tenacious D-Store's Field Of Streams. We're heading down the final stretch now as H2H leagues are beginning their playoffs, and second and third place roto teams are making desperation moves in an attempt to pull in to the lead. By now even the owners who have been bitching and moaning about you streaming pitchers all season, are using the same strategy themselves in an attempt to boast their stats and win their playoff bracket.
As I do every week, I will focus on some of the better pickups who should be available in the majority of leagues for each day of the week as well as some that should be avoided. Since some people also choose to stream an outfield or utility spot with a hot bat each week, I will also include a weekly highlight on a hitter who may fly under your radar. Let's get started.
NOTE: All starts are probable. I can not be held responsible for last minute managerial decisions, injuries, rain-outs, alien abductions, arrests etc.
Monday September 15, 2008
Mark Buehrle CHW @ Alfredo Aceves NYY
Mark Buehrle's consistency has been a little suspect recently, but aside from a Red Sox Blowout on August 30th, Buehrle hasn't lost a start since July 2nd. I would like to excuse Mark Buehrle's recent struggles since he may have been distracted by his concern for his sick wife and what was an undiagnosed ailment until recently. With a diagnosis an old weight is lifted, and a new weight takes it's place. Mrs. Jamie Buehrle is pregnant, and perhaps now Mark Buehrle's distractions are caused by attempting to discover how that could happen during a lengthy string of away games. OK perhaps there's no need to go there, bottom line is Buehrle may be winning and his strike out numbers are tolerable, but overall he's looking pretty ugly out there and has a very disturbing 1-5 record and 6.58 ERA in seven previous starts against the Yankees. Although Buehrle appears to have settled down in his last two outings I think it's best that you avoid him in this start. The Yankees once again have a pitching prospect to look forward to. Rookie Alfredo Aceves, has pitched very well against two intimidating line ups to face. Five innings, one earned run and four punch outs against the Rays, followed by seven innings, one earned run, and only two strike outs but Aceves didn't walk anyone. Given the fact that Alfredo Aceves has already proven he can last seven innings and hold his own against even better teams than the White Sox, added to Buehrle's career long washouts against the Yankees I think Aceves is worth a gamble.
Hiroki Kuroda LA @ Ross Ohlendorf PIT
I certainly hope you heeded my warnings about Ross Ohlendorf in his second start. It isn't hard to look impressive against the Reds, the Astros can actually hit the ball as Ohlendorf discovered in his short four inning session. This is the Ohlendorf you should expect to see, and he has no value in fantasy leagues especially while pitching for the Pirates. In Hiroki Kuroda's last eight starts he has allowed more than two runs only twice (allowing four in the other two). Kuroda doesn't provide the numbers that will ever make him anything but a low end fantasy starter at best, but he'll provide six solid innings and four or five strikeouts. Pitching against the Pirates makes him an advisable spot start, but that won't be the case against stronger teams.
Wade LeBlanc SD @ Livan Hernandez COL
Wade LeBlanc's first two major leagues starts, both of which were against the Dodgers, were like night and day. He followed up a four innings train wreck with six lights out innings for his first career big league win. However, his AAA numbers seems to reflect that the first performance we saw from LeBlanc, is closer to what we can expect on a regular basis. He has some great strike out potential, as he managed to K a batter per inning in 25 starts with the AAA Portland Beavers, but his 11-9 record is soured by a 5.34 ERA. Everyone should be aware that at this point in Livan Hernandez's career we can't expect much more from him either. At 11-11in 29 MLB starts this season Hernandez carries a 6.21 ERA and a heavy 1.67 WHIP, in addition you can no longer expect more that four or five innings from the man who was once known as a work horse. Avoid both of these options at all costs even in NL only leagues.
Dontrelle Willis DET @ Kevin Millwood TEX
The Tigers bring back two names that we haven't heard in awhile, and for those of us whose pitching stats suffered while they struggled on the mound probably hoped we would never hear them again. We'll discuss Fast Freddy Garcia a little bit later, first up is The D-Train, Dontrelle Willis. 2005 was an amazing season for Dontrelle 22 wins and a minuscule 2.63 ERA, but how long can we dwell on that or continue to add him to fantasy teams praying for a repeat. Some of us expected a resurgence with a move to the Detroit Tigers, I admit I took him in the later rounds of a few drafts, but he got worse. However, fantasy owners appear to have lived and learned and they are not fooled this time around. Willis's ownership has not risen even one percent since his call up, and there hasn't been much to look forward too based on his AAA starts this season. Therefore I doubt I have to tell anyone, that Dontrelle Willis is not the solution. As for Kevin Millwood, I told you the streak would end at three. I would not recommend him even if he was pitching against... well pitching against Dontrelle Willis.
Tuesday September 16, 2008
Derek Lowe LA @ Tom Gorzelanny PIT
Why is Derek Lowe still available in anything other than AL only leagues? Lowe has pitched like a man possessed this season. He has now won his last three starts with a 0.47 ERA having only allowed one run. He's bound to have quite a tattoo from a line drive that got him right in the back of the knee, but that's a lot better that being caught in the knee cap. Lowe has said it looks worse than it feels and claims to have very little discomfort resulting from it. If you are in one of the leagues filled with comatose owners and failed to see a reason to add him previously, a match against Tom Gorzelanny and the Pirates is about as good as it gets. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a complete game shutout with double digit strikeouts.
Braden Looper STL @ Ramon A. Ramirez CIN
Braden Looper is Braden Looper, not much changes from week to week and he has been profiled enough in Field of Streams that very little remains to be said. Aside from a late August start against the Astros, Looper hasn't allowed many earned runs lately. Looper is usually good for about seven innings, and the only definitive trend you can count on from him is low strike out numbers. Looper hasn't been horrendous this season but I am still always reluctant to recommend him because we know he can have a melt down at any time as we saw in that start against Houston. I'm not going to do it this week even against the down-and-out Reds. The Cincinnati Great American Ball Park is just too unforgiving to below average, low velocity pitchers like Looper. Ramon Ramirez is an interesting option as he has pitched very well in his trio of major league appearances thus far. He is a hard throwing strike out specialist in the making and is able to keep the ball low in the strike zone which is imperative in a hitter friendly park. At this point he is nothing more than a spot starter even for the Reds and it is unclear what their plans for Ramirez are for the remainder of the season. Ramirez is young, and is likely to struggle with his command as he attempts to do too much on the mound and show off his fastball, something we see from a lot of rookies who see early big league sucess. I want to see more before I invest in Ramirez. I personally think he is ready for the Show and the Reds have nothing to lose by allowing him to showcase himself as a candidate for next seasons rotation. Continue to monitor him, but don't pounce too soon.
Armando Galarraga DET @ Dustin Nippert TEX
Armando Galarraga is getting his first taste of how unforgiving fantasy owners can be. Galarraga is mired in his first slump of the season is he is now winless in his last four, with back to back losses. He has reached a new career high in innings and it is normal for pitchers to struggle at this point. I'm a bit more optimistic in this case, I believe this is nothing more than a minor slump and owners should show some patience after the dominant season he has had. I'm not even going to recommend you bench him until he rights his ship, keep him in your active lineup, and have more faith in a free agent pitcher that provided you with a free ace all season long. It is far too early to drop him as many have already done. Who would have thought Rangers fans would be anticipating the return of Vicente Padilla to the rotation. Dustin Nippert can't realistically be labeled a bust, because there was nothing that supported his being labeled a top prospect. Even his 2006 AAA season where he had a 13-8 record in 25 appearances came with a 4.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. That's a sign that he received desperately needed run support, not the sign of a good pitcher.
Dustin Moseley ANA @ Sean Gallagher OAK
With John Lackey being sidelined for undisclosed reasons, Dustin Moseley has been granted a shot at redemption. Moseley struggled early in the season and lost the rotation spot he was battling for, but he is still a top pitching prospect. Moseley pitched well in his return to the rotation holding the Yankees to three hits and two earned runs with six strikeouts through five innings. This may be his last opportunity to prove his worth as a future staple for a major league rotation. Given the fact that the Oakland A's have failed to make much of anything happen this season, and Sean Gallagher has done very little of anything noteworthy, Moseley deserve a chance as a spot starter. However, you would be best advised to keep him to AL only or deeper leagues at this point.
Wednesday September 17, 2008
Josh Geer SD @ Jeff Francis COL
Last week I encouraged you to gamble and use Jeff Francis as a spot starter over Billingsley, especially since Billingsley has been dominated by the Rockies in every previous match up. As I write this segment I am currently watching that game as it unfolds. Francis hasn't pitched poorly but he has allowed three runs and trails by one. His strike out numbers are encouraging and helpful to your fantasy stats but he is simply throwing too many pitches and I highly doubt he takes the mound in the seventh. So at best we may get a no decision from him. Last week I made another ballsy recommendation with Jeff Geer who gave us another seven innings in a win over the Giants. He allowed nine hits, but only two runs. Those strikeouts that I love so much from my fantasy pitchers, really weren't there, but the potential to post high strike out numbers is possessed by Geer. So who gets the nod this week? It has to be Francis again. Geer was successful in his first major league start which came against Colorado, but the boys know what they are up against this time and the Padres are no match for the Rockies.
Tim Wakefield BOS @ Matt Garza TB
Tim Wakefield and Matt Garza are both 1-2 in their last three starts, however the differance in their earned run average in that span is 6.95 to Garza's favor. Garza was a little shaky against the Yankees, but also had to face a red hot Blue Jays line up twice. He pitched brilliantly in both starts shutting them out for a win in 7.2 innings the first time, and losing the last start despite only allowing one run. Garza pitches deep in to games, posts great strike out numbers most of the time and is always well composed on the mound. Wakefield is likely in his final MLB season and although he saw moderate success in the first half of the season, he has been falling apart at the seams down the final stretch. Boston may even attempt to replace him in the rotation with the Jays gaining speed down the final stretch. They will not allow Wakefield to be a liability and neither should you. Avoid him even in AL only leagues. Not even the mighty Red Sox are enough to make him worth it. Don't put to much thought in to what Wakefield did against the Jays on Friday. The Jays are tired and they have always struggled with Wakefield's knuckleball.
Todd Wellemeyer STL @ Bronson Arroyo CIN
Todd Wellemeyer has lost three of his last four starts, but really hasn't done anything wrong. He pitched well and provided plenty of strikeouts keeping his ERA under 2.00 during that stretch. Amazingly Bronson Arroyo has accomplished a similar feat, the strikeouts, the low ERA, the only difference is Arroyo is winning. Either of these options could be favorable as a spot start right now. I'm probably going to jinx Arroyo here, as we all know he is prone to a melt down at anytime, but he has actually been rather consistent all season. Posting 14 wins on a team as bad as the Reds is no easy task. I'm giving them both the green light this week, but going with the pitcher who is actually winning games for my teams.
Freddy An. Garcia DET @ Vicente Padilla TEX
For years and years I used to refer to Freddy Garcia as the most under-rated pitcher in the MLB. By 2006 people began to agree with me, as Garcia improved his strikeout numbers and showed himself to be a road warrior dominating in away games while still pitching moderately well at home. By 2007, he was drafted in more leagues than ever before following a trade to Philadelphia, and completely imploded. Garcia only pitched 58 innings over 11 starts. He went 1-5 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.60 WHIP before admitting that he was having shoulder issues, which lead to a rather serious surgical procedure. Now Garcia is ready to start on the road back with the Detroit Tigers. It's going to be a long road and it is doubtful we'll see more than five innings tops. I don't think Garcia will ever fully recover and he should be ignored for at least the rest of the season. Vicente Padilla is back from a far less serious DL stint which I really don't think was anything more than a rest for him. Padilla doesn't really do anything special, he is not over powering but he's been getting his job done this year. He's still nothing more than a low end AL only starter, but at 13-7 on the season, if he can pull out a victory here he may be useful for points leagues. I can't bring myself to suggest him for anything else, he's brutal to the rest of your roto stats.
Thursday September 18, 2008
Ryan Feierabend SEA @ Zack Greinke KC
Ryan Feierabend beats the Yankees with a rather good seven inning performance, and his ownership in fantasy leagues is cut in half from 4% to 2%. I congratulate those who were not fooled. In five starts for the Mariners this season, only two of Feierabend's starts have been classified as quality. Feierabend gives up too many hits, and if the M's defense isn't on their toes it only leads to trouble as they certainly aren't able to bail their pitchers out with their offense. I really haven't formed much of an opinion on Feierabend, his minor league numbers are nothing special and I don't see him suddenly becoming a stud pitcher even two or three years down the road. At best Feierabend may develop in to a pitcher very similar to Ted Lilly as far as the stats compare. I'm going to go with Zack Greinke here breaking my own cardinal rule about bad not being better than worse. Two prior relief appearances against KC have left Feierabend with a 16.88 ERA in only 5 innings pitched. I'm not looking forward to seeing what the Royals do to him in a full start. Besides, Greinke is pitching quite well recently and has even struck out eight batters in back to back starts.
Jered Weaver ANA @ Greg Smith OAK
Jered Weaver missed a couple weeks after cutting is right index and ring fingers on a protruding staple as he attempted to stick his gum under the dugout bench. Serves him right for having such poor manners. That combined with Weaver recent inability to pitch deep in to games has a few owners cutting him loose and he is currently available in about 10% of 12 team leagues. Weavers injury did not require stitches and enough time should have passed for the wound to heal. Since he has been averaging more than a strikeout per inning lately and has a great offense behind him, Weaver and the Angels should have no difficulty making quick work of Greg Smith and heavily outscoring the A's.
Joe Saunders ANA @ Josh Outman OAK
As the first team to clinch their division title and with it a playoff berth, the Angels are going to be resting a lot of their big bats for the remainder of the regular season, especially the big man Vladimir Guerrero. This is going to hurt the value of pitchers like Jon Garland and Joe Saunders whose limited fantasy value is inflated by a potent offense. Saunders is probably owned in your league anyway, but with little strike out potential, limited ability to effectively hold base runners and no Big Daddy Vladdy he's barely an antiquate #5 starter for most fantasy teams from this point out. Josh Outman did exactly what I said he would last week, so for those of you that took the gamble with me, you're welcome. This wasn't a fluke start. The Rangers can hit, but they couldn't hit Outman. The A's kept him on a short leash, and Outman received the managerial pat on the back after only five innings. He allowed only one run and struck out three. He has the ability to strike out far more, and that may come with longer outings. Oakland isn't usually capable of scoring a lot of runs, but they managed to score seven against the Rangers with Outman on the mound last time. Have faith in the youngster to improve in his second start.
Alberto Arias HOU @ Scott Olsen FLA
If Alberto Arias proved anything in his first major league starts, it was that the Astro's don't use him nearly as much as they should. Arias is a middle reliever and is best suited for that role, after five innings and 69 pitches Arias was evidently exhausted, but he allowed only two hits, no runs and struck out six batters for the win. His endurance is bound to be too problematic to risk him as a spot starter and he will likely be back to the bullpen after this start. Don't risk him burning out in the third or fourth inning when an option like Josh Outman is virtually unknown and available in most leagues. Scott Olsen has finally ended a nine game losing streak with a win over the Nationals. Olsen had looked promising back in April and heading in to May, but overall has been a complete flop this season. He has only two precious starts against the Astros and was victorious in both of them and posted excellent strikeout numbers in both games. As a top prospect Olsen is a bust, but he's not so horrible that he could kill you with one spot start. Give him a shot based on his previous success against the Astro's.
Friday September 19, 2008
Dave Bush MIL @ Ramon A. Ramirez CIN
Dave Bush has had a very good second half. His only bad start after the All-Star break has been a recent one against the Mets, which he followed up with seven solid innings against the Reds for a no decision. Bush will face the Reds again on Friday. I don't see any reason not to start someone who is pitching so well against a pathetic team like the Reds and rookie Ramon Ramirez. Ramirez is a darned good pitcher himself even with his inexperience. In two starts and one relief appearance this season he has logged 16 innings, 12 K's and only four runs. However, I believe you are better off using the six year veteran Bush and the better offensive team.
Oliver Perez NYM @ Jo-Jo Reyes ATL
I am always reluctant to recommend the inconsistent Oliver Perez. I would do so even against the Washington Nationals last week despite the fact that he had been pitching well in a series of starts preceding that. As proof of what I have been saying all along Oli was crushed for eight hits and seven runs in only three innings. There is no reason why Oli shouldn't be able to effectively win against Jo-Jo Reyes and the struggling Braves either, but I won't start him. His periodic arbitrary meltdowns just aren't worth it. I would be even more hesitant to recommend Jo-Jo Reyes though so take that what for what it's worth. Oli should win, but I want no part of him.
Randy Wolf HOU @ Ian Snell PIT
I was really on a roll with last weeks column and the recommendations within it. Randy Wolf was fantastic once again in his first start last week. However, despite a complete game shut out against the Cubs the last time they met, the Cubbies evened the score on Sunday scoring five runs in 2.2 innings before Wolf walked off the mound in disgust. I recommended Ian Snell against the Astros in a match up against Brandon Backe. Snell did not win the game, but he did strike out nine batters and allowed only three runs which was still far better that what Backe would have contributed to your pitching stats. I warned against starting Snell in his second start last week correctly predicting the damage the Cardinals line up would do to him. Bottom line is the Cubbies are a great team, and what happened to Wolf could have happened to the best of pitchers. Even Peavy and Santana get roughed up from time to time. Wolf has been far too effective lately to sit against one of the worst teams in the league based on what one of the best teams in the league did to him.
Glen Perkins MIN @ Edwin Jackson TB
After a lengthy winning streak and a very impressive rookie season to date from Glen Perkins, he has now provided three absolutely atrocious starts in a row. I have to wonder if Perkins has simply worn himself out. He has never pitched anywhere near as many innings as he has logged for the Twins this season at any level of his career. It's probably best to use a wait and see approach and avoid activating him in any league for now. The Rays don't just simply want to make the playoffs, they want to win the AL East division. With the Red Sox neck and neck with them now, the Rays won't be resting players or taking it easy. This works in Edwin Jackson's favor as at least he will have a loaded line up and some run support. Jackson has struggled in his last two starts. Jackson is a lot like Oliver Perez, you never really know what to expect. I am concerned partly because Jackson has never beaten the Twins in five previous starts against them. Even worse is his whopping 18.90 ERA in those five starts. Do yourself a favor and avoid both of these guys on Friday. There is no way to even fathom what the result will be, and you can't afford a train wreck now as we enter the second round of the play offs for most H2H fantasy leagues.
Max Scherzer ARI @ Jorge De La Rosa COL
I usually try and limited this column to four pitching match ups per day. However, I couldn't just ignore the fact that Max Scherzer is once again getting a start for the D-Backs. Scherzer is an animal who can post obscene strike out numbers. Forget his earlier starts this season. So what if he didn't win, he still kept his ERA around 3.00, his WHIP moderately low and has struck out 45 batters in only 39 innings. Truthfully, I don't think that is anywhere close to being his ceiling. You start a guy like Scherzer anytime he takes the mound. Period.
Saturday September 20, 2008
Jeff Suppan MIL @ Johnny Cueto CIN
Jeff Suppan is 5-2 in his last eight starts, but in two of his last three starts he has allowed four runs in 5.1 innings, then got hit hard by the Phillies in his last start. The Brewers are still in contention for the NL wild card spot, but they have now lost six straight and their playoff hopes appear to be slipping away. Johnny Cueto had a great start to the season, but has struggled and battled injuries in the second half. The Reds seem hesitant to leave him on the mound longer than five innings at this point even when he is pitching well. Cueto was very effective in his last start holding the Diamondbacks to one earned run in five innings. However, he threw 115 pitches and waked six batters which is reason for concern. Due to the fact that Suppan is struggling and the Brewers appear to be choking I am going to go out on a limb and predict a Reds victory here. Cueto will probably not factor in to that decision but might be the better option for deeper leagues.
Carlos Silva SEA @ Dana Eveland OAK
Carlos Silva is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and now that he has been experiencing stiffness in his back it probably isn't going to change that fact. Silva has only managed to win four of 26 starts this season, that is absolutely pathetic even for a Mariners pitcher. Dana Eveland now has four consecutive no decisions in his last four starts. He has provided six or more innings of work in all but the last, and allowed more than three runs only once. If Eveland had just pitched one more inning on Sunday against the Rangers the win would have been his, but at least he provided six K's. This is a no brainer, Silva doesn't have anything on Eveland.
John Danks CHW @ Kyle Davies KC
John Danks was on his way to having a great sophomore season. Lately he has struggled a bit, and the White Sox have limited his innings most likely as precaution not to over work him before the post season. Kyle Davies doesn't go past the fifth very often either but has pitched a little better than Danks as of late. Davies won't be a horrible option in AL only leagues, but Danks posts more strikeouts and pitches for the division leaders rather than the basement dwelling Royals. Take the safer bet here.
Brad Hennessey SF @ Hiroki Kuroda LA
Brad Hennessey managed to hold his own in his only major league start this season, but despite only allowing one run against the D-Backs. He wasn't suburb by any means. There is enough risk in using a Giants starter alone, never mind one that stunk it up in his minor league starts this season, and hasn't been effective in relief either recently allowing five runs in two innings against the Pirates. Hennessey's 9.64 ERA this season speaks for itself. Don't be fooled by one half decent outing. Hiroki Kuroda has allowed far too many hits in his last two starts, but has still managed not to do too much damage to anyone's fantasy stats. Kuroda is almost never lights out as a pitcher, but he doesn't have many disastrous outings either. Consider him a reasonably safe option against the Giants.
Sunday, September 21, 2008Kenny Rogers DET @ Scott Lewis CLE
With Kenny Rogers still owned in about 22% of 10 team leagues, we can easily come to the conclusion that at least 22% of owners in 10 team leagues have dead teams. Kenny Rogers was already passed over from his last start because of a sore hip. Rogers has never been more than average at any point of his career, but now at 44 years old he's just the crazy old guy who hobbles around the Tigers clubhouse complaining about how the weather affects his bad hip. The Gambler is probably done after this season and there is no point in hanging on to him in any league. Sometimes, you've got to know when to fold 'em. Scott Lewis would have been a stud pitcher long ago if he could keep himself out of the doctor's office. Lewis must be made of glass as his list of minor league injuries is quite extensive. In his first major league start Lewis showed that the injuries haven't slowed him down at all, pitching eight shut out innings against the Orioles. Lewis is an unknown to most fantasy players but has loads of potential. This is a great spot start option for any fantasy team, but remember glass can't support it's own weight, if he shatters I can't be held responsible.
Dan Haren ARI @ Ubaldo Jimenez COL
When you are considered to be a top five NL pitcher, and fail to get the job done against the Padres, lose back to back starts against the Dodgers, and can't even make it out of the fourth inning against the San Francisco Giants, something is clearly wrong. Haren is normally a stud and you almost have to start him if you own him, but he has been horrible lately. He can't pitch like that and get away with it against the Rockies. I'm willing to bet he continues to struggle and the Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez benifit.
Brandon Morrow SEA @ Sean Gallagher OAK
Brandon Morrow has done it all for the Mariners pitching staff this season. He picked up ten saves as an interim closer while J.J. Putz was on the DL, he spent some time as the set-up man, and now he's found himself in the rotation. Morrow was in control when he faced the Yankees in his first start. He pitched 7.2 innings with 8 strikeouts, and only gave up one hit, which was unfortunately hit in to orbit. Morrow had a bit more trouble with the Angels but still held his own. Sean Gallagher is making the Cubs look like geniuses, as he continues to get worse with every start. Clearly the Cubs realized that there was no moldable talent here and did the right thing by using him as a toss in to finalize the trade that netted them Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. Gallagher has no business on any team; MLB or fantasy.
Chris Waters BAL @ Alfredo Aceves NYY
Chris Waters pitched an eight inning shutout allowing only one hit against the best team in the MLB, the Anaheim Angels. That was back on August 5th and since then Waters has provided 7 consecutive atrocious outings. Waters was never much of a prospect and is only still a part of the O's rotation due to desperation, and the fact that they are not even close to contending this season. With so many injuries, they obviously prefer to rest their current pitches than actually win some ball games. So that makes the job of Alfredo Aceves rather easy. Aceves looked great against the Angels, holding them to one earned run through seven innings for the win. If he can do that against the MLB's best team, it seems reason enough to start him against one of the worst.
Highlight Of the WeekFelipe Lopez (2B,3B,SS,OF) St. Louis Cardinals
Felipe Lopez is currently riding a 14 game hitting streak, and would be very valuable to any league that uses a middle infielder or deeper leagues with more than three outfield spots. Lopez's 44 stolen bases in 2006 were clearly a fluke as he has yet to even hit double digits there this season, but he is playing everyday for the Cardinals and playing very productively at that. The Nationals are looking pretty foolish at the moment for releasing him, but clearly Lopez enjoys playing in St. Louis and continues to thrive. He could provide a nice push for your team down the stretch especially with his multiple position eligibility.
Field of Streams :: 9/08/08
by Tenacious D-Store
Published: September 8, 2008, 5:34 pm
Welcome back for another edition of Tenacious D-Store's Field Of Streams. We're heading down the final stretch now as H2H leagues are beginning their playoffs, and second and third place roto teams are making desperation moves in an attempt to pull in to the lead. By now even the owners who have been bitching and moaning about you streaming pitchers all season, are using the same strategy themselves in an attempt to boast their stats and win their playoff bracket.
As I do every week, I will focus on some of the better pickups who should be available in the majority of leagues for each day of the week as well as some that should be avoided. Since some people also choose to stream an outfield or utility spot with a hot bat each week, I will also include a weekly highlight on a hitter who may fly under your radar. Let's get started.
NOTE: All starts are probable. I can not be held responsible for last minute managerial decisions, injuries, rain-outs, alien abductions, arrests etc.
Monday September 8, 2008
Gio Gonzalez OAK @ Zach Miner DET
Gio Gonzalez struck out more than a batter per inning in his last start against the Kansas City Royals, which is good. However he only lasted four innings and the Royals scored four runs in that span which is bad. One of the runs was not an earned run which is good, but Gio lacked control and and those four runs scored on only two hits which is bad. This should have been Gio's easiest outing to date this season and he still stunk. His 7.18 ERA and outrageous 1.78 WHIP are all the warning you need. He's still not ready for the major leagues. Zach Minor is back in the rotation and someone who is easily overlooked as a spot starter. In eight outings this year, he has had one bad start and six brilliant ones, and one that was a little shaky, but the Tigers pulled through even if Miner didn't factor in to the decision. This is not a challenging start for Miner but it should be a productive one for you fantasy team, and that's good. However, the Frogurt contains potassium benzoate... that's bad, and I'll be getting sued by the producers of The Simpson's and that's worse.
Ian Snell PIT @ Brandon Backe HOU
How's that new approach working for our friend Brandon Backe? As you remember from last week, we discussed Mr. Backe's epiphany as to why he has previously sucked. It would appear that poor Brandon Backe has become an expert on making a fool of himself both on and off the field. The Cubs made quick work of Backe in his previous start ending his night early in the fourth inning. His improved pitching approach resulted in nine hits including three home runs, and a couple of walks (I'd be afraid to throw the ball over the plate after that too). Now, you might be thinking "Surely Backe can beat the Pirates". I say don't count on it, and don't call me Shirley. I'm actually going to recommend Ian Snell this week. Snell has won two of his last three, with plenty of strikeouts. He had a rough start against the Cubbies, but in the two games against the Cards and Reds where he was victorious he allowed only one earned run in 13 total innings. Snell's seasonal stats are despicable, but if he can stay focused, he has the ability to out pitch Backe. We know Snell can pitch like an ace, we've seen it... just not this season. Maybe he's ready for a hot streak. This is a risky recommendation, but take a shot if you are desperate.
Clayton Kershaw LA @ Cha Seung Baek SD
Things got ugly for Clayton Kershaw for awhile, even the Nationals crushed him in a recent start as Kershaw got the hook early in the third inning, after allowing five runs on five hits. Kershaw looked pretty good in his last start posting six strikeouts through seven innings, he was victorious over the Padres but strangely enough allowed three runs off three hits. He didn't give up any homers this time, but Kershaw has to keep his walks down and stop trying to paint the corners when he's behind in the count. Instead, he should be relying more on his filthy fastball. Kershaw will face the Padres again this week, he got the job done the first time, so have faith that he will do it again. Cha Seung Baek has been atrocious lately and has lost his last four decisions. The Dodgers blasted Baek for eight hits and seven runs in only 3.2 innings, that combined with Petco being an extremely pitcher friendly park, only serves to make Clayton Kershaw an even more attractive option and I strongly recommend him on Monday.
Fausto Carmona CLE @ Daniel Cabrera BAL
Fausto Carmona has won three in a row, but I still hesitate to recommend him. Nothing he did was impressive, spectacular or special. He still gave up plenty of free passes to first, still allowed three or four earned runs in six or less innings of work, and continues to post poor strike out numbers. So for those of you who are starting him, you are getting wins and nothing else. Danial Cabrera used to be known for a great fastball and strikeout abilities. Those days are over, Cabrera isn't even a decent innings eater anymore and has been a complete train wreak this season, not to mention he is coming off a suspension that he welcomed, as he was nursing a sore forearm. Carmona gets the nod over Cabrera if those are your only choices, but I would honestly much rather go with a guy like Ian Snell who has the ability to pad your strike outs numbers as well as post the win this week.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Jesse Litsch TOR @ Clayton Richard CHW
Jesse Litsch returned to the major league level with back to back shutout performances against the Tigers and Red Sox, allowing AL only owners who had hung on to him to breathe a sigh of relief. If Litsch can hold his own against two of the more potent offenses in the AL, then his owners have something to look forward to. Try not to be overly concerned that following that start, the Rays fed it to Litsch with 10 hits in 6.2 innings. The Rays have always had the Blue Jays number even when they were struggling to stay above .400. The good news is that despite all those hits, Litsch held them to only three earned runs. Richard Clayton is still being bounced between the bullpen and rotation. Twice in the past month he has been used as a reliever only to start a game a day or two later. It's completely absurd. Clayton has been fairly decent in his rookie season. He did take a loss against the Indians for the first time in five appearances, but if not for a fielding error it may have been a different story. I think it's best to ignore Richard as a spot start option. If the White Sox are going to use him on a regular basis out of the bullpen, and still expect him to start every fifth game, Richard simply will not have the endurance to pitch past the fifth inning at most. Go with Litsch.
Ross Ohlendorf PIT @ Randy Wolf HOU
After pitching in short relief appearances for the Pirates all season, rookie Ross Ohlendorf didn't do too bad in his first career major league start. Most impressive was the fact that he managed to pitch six complete innings, which isn't easy when you've been pitching one or two at a time as a mop up guy. Ohlendorf managed to retire the first eight batters he faced, before Reds pitcher Edinson Volquez lined one out to centerfield. Ohlendorf was a bit shaken by giving up a hit to the pitcher and began to struggle a bit, but pulled himself together for a relatively strong finish. By the end of the night he had allowed three runs and did not factor in to the decision. Ohlendorf may be worth a look in deeper leagues, but I'm not about to suggest him over Randy Wolf who is fresh off a complete game shut out of the Cubs where he tallied eight punch outs. Wolf has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings. He's not an over powering pitcher but has a great 5-1 record in eight career appearances against the Pirates.
Chris Volstad FLA @ Joe Blanton PHI
Many of Chris Volstad's no decisions lately should have been losses, he was lucky enough to be bailed out by his team mates repeatedly. Volstad started hot, but it didn't take long for opposing batters to figure him out. As a result he is not striking out batters as frequently as he was, he is giving up far too many walks, and he's not winning games. Joe Blanton isn't winning games either. There is no reason why even a below average pitcher would fail to win in six consecutive starts especially when those starts came against teams like the Dodgers, Pirates and Nationals, when he has the big bats of the contending Phillies behind him. Neither of these guys are worth your time. Even if you manage to pick the pitcher for the winning team, and even if that starter factors in to the decision, you're still just going to have a win and a whole lot of ugliness to come with it. High ERA, high WHIP, low strikeouts and no more than five or six innings are to be expected from them both.
Josh Fogg CIN @ Jeff Suppan MIL
With only one win in his last ten starts since recovering from a back ailment, Josh Fogg would have been far more valuable to your team when he was still on the DL. His seasonal 7.29 ERA should be all the warning you need to avoid Fogg as a spot starter. Jeff Suppan would have been a decent spot start for you last week after all, as his start was pushed back and came against the Pirates rather than Johan Santana and the Mets. Suppan usually isn't a viable mixed league option but he has won his last five decisions in six starts and continues to pitch fairly deep in to games. Against the bottom feeding Reds and Josh Fogg, he remains a strong spot start option despite has low strike out numbers.
Wednesday September 10, 2008
Andy Pettitte NYY @ Ervin Santana ANA
Jered Weaver was original scheduled when I selected this pitching match up to review, and regardless of my long history of Weaver joke I was actually going to recommend him here. Andy Pettitte simply is not pitching very well right now. In his last two combined starts, he allowed 20 hits and 12 runs in only 10 combined innings. Now Pettitte must face a far better pitcher than Weaver, and there is very little chance that Ervin Santana is available in your league. Pettitte may be, or perhaps you own him already. I recommend that you do not activate him for this match up.
Ricky Nolasco FLA @ Brett Myers PHI
It would appear that we have all forgiven Brett Myers as he is now owned in virtually all leagues of ten teams or more. However, his previous record against the Marlins is as shaky as Myers was earlier this season. With a 6-8 record and 5.05 ERA in 26 career starts against the fish, it's worth taking a look at Ricky Nolasco who has pitched very well this season. In Nolasco's last seven starts he has struck out 59 batters and walked only four giving him the best K/BB ratio of all starting pitchers in the MLB over the past two months. You can't sit Myers while he's this hot, but I expect Nolasco to come out on top here.
Anthony Reyes CLE @ Chris Waters BAL
Chris Waters has had moments where the rookie looked like a seasoned vet on the mound this season. Then he's had moments where he looked like he might be Brandon Backe's retarded cousin. The fact that he pitched eight scoreless innings against the Angels, and held off the Red Sox to pick up a win in a bit of a shaky start proves that Waters has potential. One also has to remember that Chris Waters is 28 and only debuting in the majors now. That forces us to draw a line between potential and fluke. I'm not about to recommend Waters in any start based on one great outing, and another where he didn't exactly impress but managed to win. His other starts have just been to ugly. Anthony Reyes is now becoming a regular weekly recommendation, and has now lowered his season ERA to 2.93 thanks to one solid start after another. Maybe it's time Reyes got the respect to be a permanent fixture in all mixed leagues now. Yet, he remains only 40% owned in ten team leagues. Go get him again.
Kyle Davies KC @ Kevin Slowey MIN
Kyle Davies pitched five solid innings for a win against Oakland, but it follows four losses in his previous four starts. When starting a pitcher on a team as bad as the Royals, you have to make sure you are starting an ace. As of right now the Royals have no pitchers that fit that profile. Slowey had won four straight decisions before taking a loss to the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are crushing the ball right now however, and that start can't be held against him. You can usually count on Slowey for at least six innings and some solid strike out numbers, he may even hit double digit K's again against Kansas City.
Thursday September 11, 2008
Kevin Millwood TEX @ Greg Smith OAK
I'll have to check and see if Hell has frozen over, somehow Kevin Millwood has put together his longest winning streak since 2002 at a whopping three games. Damn, even Josh Towers put together a six game streak once. That poor jolly ol' fellow, this is all Kevin Millwood will have to tell his grandchildren. Well, perhaps he and Ned Yost can sit down over a hot cup of chamomile tea and whine together about how pathetic and meaningless their lives are. By now you've probably realized that I am still not going to recommend Millwood, and I'm going to encourage you to pass on Greg Smith too. Smith hasn't had much success against the Rangers in the past, and to be blunt, he's really not much better than Millwood.
Matt Cain SF @ Josh Geer SD
After a series off lights out performances, Matt Cain appears to be in a bit of a slump losing his last two games and ending up on the receiving end of a Cincinnati Reds outburst allowing eight hits and five runs through five innings. For the Reds, that is a rarity. Even when Cain is on, he still struggles to collect wins with the lowly Giants. Josh Geer was a nice surprise in his first ever major league appearance winning against the Rockies with a strike out per inning. I considered Geer in some of my leagues with weekly line ups as a two start option, but the Padres put an end to that idea with a rotation shuffle. Given the fact that your selection of free agent spot starters will be limited with a reduced Thursday schedule, Geer is an intriguing option albeit a risky one. Give him a shot, how much damage could the Giants really do?
Shaun Marcum TOR @ Gavin Floyd CHW
I knew Shaun Marcum would not be in the minor leagues long, and with the Jays tearing the cover off the ball he is almost guaranteed to receive plenty of run support. Marcum has been victories in four of his five minor leagues starts and picked up a no decision in the other. Not to shabby since the AAA Sky Chiefs are a ridiculously bad team. Gavin Floyd has only faced the Jays once resulting in a solid no decision. He is also 5-0 in his last seven starts. Maybe there is a little bit of homerism involved in recommending a Jays pitcher, but Marcum is currently dating my baby sister-in-law so believe me, he is on my no-no-list. I am recommending Marcum over Floyd due to the Jays hot streak. Both could be decent options to start on Thursday though.
Ubaldo Jimenez COL @ James R. Parr ATL
How do you end a Colorado Rockies eight game winning streak? That's right, you put Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound. Jimenez hasn't been the same pitcher that shined late last season and played a big role in carrying the Rockies to the World Series, not even close. He looked like he might turn it around with a nice July, but then it all seemed to fall apart again. Jimenez has a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts and a 6.32 ERA in three previous career starts against the Braves. As bad as Atlanta has been this season I just don't see any reason to believe U-Jim can put up a solid showing here. James Parr had a pretty easy go in his first major league appearance and it's hard to judge him based on an outing against the Nationals. Parr only gave up two hits in six innings and both came off the bat of Ronnie Belliard. Don't be so quick to use Parr as a spot start but continue to watch his progression. He may prove to be a viable option, but it's foolish to risk him with very little to critique him on.
Friday September 12, 2008
Matt Harrison TEX @ Josh Outman OAK
Matt Harrison is 4-1 in his last six starts, but he has allowed a lot of runs in some of those starts, and his season 5.73 ERA shows that he has been far from flawless. Harrison pitched well in the first inning of his last start against Seattle, but when he allowed a solo shot to Adrian Beltre with his first pitch of the second inning everything seemed to come apart. Harrison beat the Oakland A's with a five inning performance and allowed only one run the last time they met, but Harrison has been so inconsistent that you can't judge this start based on the previous one. Josh Outman will step up and step in for the injured Justin Duchscherer on Friday. Outman has only ever pitched two innings in relief at the major league level, he struck out two and also allowed only two hits. His minor league numbers tell the story of a young Randy Johnson like strike out pitcher who sometimes struggles with his control. Let's see if the Out Man lives up to his name, he won't be up long, but I think the youngster is worth a shot in this match. His three year minor league 3.18 ERA over 344 innings with 343 strikeouts, are numbers that would have deep dynasty owners salivating. Outman is defiantly worth a gamble.
David Purcey TOR @ Tim Wakefield BOS
David Purcey has shown us the best and the worst of what he has to offer. From an eight inning showdown against the Rays where he allowed only one run and struck out eleven, to a three inning nightmare against the Twins where he allowed five runs off seven hits with a pair of walks. Those were just his last two starts. He has another start before this one on Sunday September 7th, which will come against the Rays again. The Jays are hitting well, but I don't expect Purcey to be anywhere near as effective as he was the first time around. Tim Wakefield suffered a complete melt down against the Texas Rangers last weekend. He walked four and allowed seven earned runs on only four hits in 1.2 innings. Wakefield's three outings previous to this were decent enough not to harm any fantasy team, even the loss he took to the White Sox was a strong outing for him. After 16 years however, Wakefield doesn't appear to have much left in the tank. The Jays are too hot to recommend Wakefield and his soft throwing style, and you won't want to start someone as inconsistent as the young David Purcey against a loaded lineup like the Red Sox. This is going to be a slobberknocker, and I don't believe either of these pitchers will prove to be a acceptable spot starter by the end of the night. Avoid them both.
Ryan Rowland-Smith SEA @ Joe Saunders ANA
I sang the praises of Ryan Rowland-Smith in an earlier edition of Field Of Streams, but questioned his ability as a starter, suggesting he would be more suitable for long relief. Rowland-Smith however, has now not only proven he can go at least seven innings but that he has the ability to be a more more effective starter than Washburn, Silva and possibly Morrow. He should be a solid fixture of the Mariners rotation by next season after they find some way to get rid of Washburn and Silva. Rowland-Smith has allowed only a total of four runs in his last three starts of 20 combined innings. His strike outs totals fluctuate but his minor league numbers show the ability to regularly strike out more than a batter per inning. I see a bright MLB future ahead of him. Joe Saunders hasn't won since July 30th and appears to be getting progressively worse this season. The soft throwing Saunders offers nothing to a fantasy team anyway, the fact that he can't manage more wins on one of the most offensively and defensively gifted teams in the MLB proves what a joke he is. Saunders is completely worthless as a fantasy pitcher.
Chad Billingsley LA @ Jeff Francis COL
Let's just cut to the chase with this one, since many of you are now looking at my recommendation and shaking your heads. Chad Billingsley is owned in just about every league, but hopefully not by you this week. Billingsley has a horrible record against the Rockies, especially at Coors Field. In seven appearances against last seasons NL champions, Billingsley has an 0-2 record and 5.63 ERA. Jeff Francis on the other hand, has no problem with the Dodgers with a career 2.60 ERA and only a pair of losses against them in 13 prior meetings. Fantasy owners are still avoiding Francis like the plague right now as he is still available in almost half of 12 team leagues. Perhaps, they haven't notice that Francis has given the Rookies five solid performances in a row even if he does have only one win to show for it. Jeff Francis is without a doubt the way to go here.
Saturday September 13, 2008
TBA CHC @ Brandon Backe HOU
Look, it's Brandon Backe again. I recommend To Be Announced. He can't be any worse than Backe.
Aaron Harang CIN @ Randy Johnson ARI
Let's start off by wishing Randy Johnson a Happy 45th Birthday. It would appear fantasy owners have decided to give him a birthday break, as his ownership has taken a bit of a dip recently, while Aaron Harang's ownership has remained surprisingly high considering the awful season he has this year. Both Harang and The Big Unit have increadable low career ERA's against the others respective team, regardless of the fact that those previous outings have resulted in mainly no decisions for both pitchers. Here's the kicker, Harang is nowhere near as effective as he has been in previous seasons, so it is unrealistic to expect a similar result from him. Maybe Johnson isn't quite as dominant as he used to be, but he just won't quit and seems to have enough left in him to make the 300 win milestone. Johnson has also averaged twice as many strikeouts against the Reds as he has innings pitched. That's impressive. If you can find the Big Unit available to you, commence your happy dance now. If you can only find Harang, perhaps mentioning his previous record against the D-Backs to your H2H opponent would be a better strategy.
Clayton Kershaw @ Jorge De La Rosa COL
Jorge De La Rosa gets another nod from me here for the same reasons I discussed last week. Regardless of the fact that Clayton Kershaw pitched relatively well against the Padres in his last start allowing three runs on just as many hits, he still has a 9.45 ERA over his last three starts including a humiliating loss to the Nationals where he barely lasted two innings. Kershaw is unsuitable even for anything other than deeper NL only leagues at this time. He also has lost both previous starts against the Rockies with a combined 7.88 ERA.
Glen Perkins MIN @ Garrett Olson BAL
Glen Perkins has been victorious in his last five decisions and hasn't lost since July 23 against the Yankees. He may not strikeout many batters but has been far too effective to ignore. Garrett Olson is 0-2 in his last four appearances with an ERA around 11.00. Olson's season ERA is 6.53 with a 1.72 WHIP and he pitches on the third worst team in the AL, there isn't a whole lot to consider here. Stick with Perkins.
Sunday September 14, 2008
Nick Blackburn MIN @ Jeremy Guthrie BAL
Nick Blackburn hasn't won a start since the first week of August. He has only lost twice since then and allowed more than three runs in a game only once. It seems that every time Blackburn is featured in Field Of Streams, it comes down to the same mitigating factor. His inability to pitch deep into games. Until that changes there are long relief pitchers with more strikeout potential such as Hong-Chih Kuo, who would make far more appealing pick ups compared to Blackburn. Jeremy Guthrie has now lost three in a row following four straight wins where he allowed only a single run in each outing. At nearly 190 innings on the season now, it appears that he has simply burned out. The Orioles pushed back his last start hoping the extra rest would do him some good, but at this time Guthrie doesn't seem like a very reliable option.
Kyle Lohse STL @ Ian Snell PIT
Kyle Lohse is coming off three straight no decisions, rounding them off with six scoreless innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and totaling 13 strike outs in his last two outings. He has never lost against the Pittsburgh Pirates in six previous appearances. Despite Ian Snell's previous recommendation this week and two very good recent outings. You'd have to believe that in a Cardinals - Pirates match up, Lohse isn't about to blemish his record.
Brian Bannister KC @ Jeremy Sowers CLE
It's been a long time since I've given Brian Bannister the green light, but despite the fact that he hasn't won a game since June 24th in what was still a brutal outing for him, he still has a 2.91 ERA in his last three games. He also has a very favorable 2-1 record and 1.33 ERA in four appearances against the Indians. Jeremy Sowers has an ERA of 9.00 in his last three starts and has severely struggled with his control. Sowers has picked up only two wins in 18 appearances this season. So if there is ever a good time to start Bannister, this is it.
Ryan Dempster CHC @ Randy Wolf HOU
My recommendation of Randy Wolf this week, again comes down to pitching trends against opposing teams. Wolf may be hot now, but his past history against the Cubs is nothing special. However, Ryan Dempster has not fared well against the Astros at all. In 41 previous appearances against Houston, Dempster is 4-10. Now I admit, many of those were relief appearance, but Dempster has a fair amount of blown saves mixed in with those losses. Since Dempster is most likely not available to you, take a shot on Wolf who pitched a complete game shutout against Dempster and the Cubs only a week ago. History may repeat itself in this rematch.
Highlight Of the Week
Travis Snider (OF) Toronto Blue Jays
Travis Snider may only have 23 at bats with the Blue Jays as I write this, but even though he has struck out seven times he managed to keep his batting average above .300. I don't expect to see great numbers from Snider in the remainder of the season, but he does have a big powerful swing and could develop in to a Jim Thome type player in time. By that I mean that he could hit 35-40 home runs a year while striking out about 150 times per season. Snider was chosen as the Highlight of the week, mainly do to the fact that the Jays finish strong just about every season (unfortunately they don't do it until it is nearly mathematically impossible for them to make the post season). Even now the Jays are tearing up their competition and scoring runs in bunches. Since the Jays seem dedicated to keeping Snider in the line up for the remainder of the season, you have to think he's going to be involved in that mayhem somewhere. Snider is a great sleeper down the stretch for AL only and deeper leagues.
Field of Streams :: 9/01/08
by Tenacious D-Store
Published: September 1, 2008, 3:42 pm
Welcome back for another edition of Tenacious D-Store's Field Of Streams. Each week, I will focus on some of the better pickups who should be available in the majority of leagues for each day of the week as well as some that should be avoided. Since some people also choose to stream an outfield or utility spot with a hot bat each week, I will also include a weekly highlight on a hitter who may fly under your radar. Let's get started.
NOTE: All starts are probable. I can not be held responsible for last minute managerial decisions, injuries, rain-outs, alien abductions, arrests etc.
Monday September 1, 2008
Mike Hampton ATL @ Josh Johnson FLA
Ok Ok I got your e-mails. Not only is Mike Hampton still pitching, he actually went eight innings. Well he also lost didn't he, so put that in you pipe and smoke it you self-righteous jerks! Ok Ok, so maybe the Braves lost, which is certainly nothing new this season. I admit it, I'm impressed, but I didn't get any of the e-mails when I first made the comments, so I'll admit I may have been wrong, but you all have to admit that you were all right on board with me. Hampton has still only logged 40 innings so I'm not convinced he still won't break down again. Hampton remains too big of a risk, he doesn't rack up many K's and still has an ERA of nearly 6.00 on the season. Leave him alone. Josh Johnson is now 4-0 in nine starts on the season and all of his other stats are very admirable. He should be owned even in 10 team leagues at the moment but he's still available in many of them. Without a doubt he is the better option here and could be an asset to any team down the stretch.
Jonathan O. Sanchez SF @ Jorge De La Rosa COL
I'm always perplexed as to why some fantasy sports sights list a player as hot just for coming of the DL. They could have been hitting .125 all season before hand, but if they spend a couple weeks on the DL they are "Hot". Or is it just celebrational? Yay! He didn't die! Jonathan O. Sanchez in all his 4.53 ERA glory in fact did not die, but some of us who have suffered in our ownership of him may have wished otherwise after he flopped following a hot May/June. Jonny O was only placed on the DL on August 11th, but hasn't won a game since June 24th. It was ugly for everyone involved. His strikeout numbers are always sweet, but everything you have to put up with to get them is far too sour for my liking. Perhaps if he was on a team that actually won games it would be worth it, but for now you are swapping K's for a huge hit to your ERA and WHIP. For Jonny to win, the Giants have to win, and that doesn't happen often even though they play half their games in a Mickey Mouse division. Go with Jorge De La Rosa by default. His season ERA is even worse than Sanchez's, but the Giants can't hit anyway. Besides De La Rosa is actually 2-1 in his last three starts with a 2.50 ERA and has just as much strikeout potential as Sanchez. The Rockies winning percentage isn't much better than the Giants but they are without a doubt the better team.
Carlos Silva SEA @ Matt Harrison TEX
Carlos Silva is also coming off the DL, but at 4-14 on the season with a 6.36 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, even the fantasy sports sites are smart enough not to put him on the hot list. Silva is among the worst starting pitchers in the MLB and on a horrible team to boot. there is not a league deep enough to justify owning him in, never mind spot starting him. So Matt Harrison gets the green light from me again. Harrison has had his rough outings this season, but for a young rookie he has been impressive overall. His biggest down fall is his inability to hold base runners. He simply doesn't pay enough attention and becomes easy to run on, but that will change with experience. This one should be a cakewalk for him.
Chad Reineke SD @ Greg Maddux LA
Chad Reineke is 2-1 in his three major league starts despite only pitching five innings in all but one start where he gave us a sixth. Not bad since he pitches for the lowly Padres, but his 4.50 ERA to date has to be concerning. He might have some upside in deeper NL only leagues but before he gets a recommendation from me, I need to see a little more from him. Greg Maddux hasn't pitched well at all since joining the Dodgers. Not that any of us should have expected anything different from him. Maddux is just too old, and his soft pitches just don't have the accuracy that they used to. Ignore him too.
Tuesday September 2, 2008
Mike Mussina NYY @ Matt Garza TB
Matt Garza may be available in more leagues than Mike Mussina, but as of late Garza is the one looking like a stud on the mound. At 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last three starts including a complete game shutout of the Texas Rangers, Garza is looking like the guy who will carry the Rays to the playoffs. We all know he can be streaky, but when he's this hot he has to be owned and active. Moose is most likely not available to you in any league, but after getting roughed up by the Orioles in his last start, I wouldn't be too upset over that fact.
Glen Perkins MIN @ David Purcey TOR
David Purcey was incredible in his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, but the Jays couldn't even score a single run for him. With a career high 11 strike outs in the game Percy moves to a second place tie for the Jays franchise in that feat, behind only Ted Lilly who managed 13 in 2004. Purcey is going to develop in to a great pitcher someday, but he is just too inconsistent right now and still has much to work on. Glen Perkins is too hot for the Jays to handle right now. Having won his last four straight outings and eating lots of innings in the process, Perkins is without a doubt the better option here. Very few fantasy owners appear to have noticed his 12-3 record in 21 appearances this season either. Perkins ownership remains extremely low despite his consistency and winning ways.
Clayton Richard CHW @ Fausto Carmona CLE
After going 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA after his first call up this season, it's hard to get excited about Clayton Richard winning back to back starts now. After all it did come against Baltimore and Seattle. This is the same guy who has failed to get out of the fourth in his other starts and once gave up eleven hits and six runs to the Royals in four innings of work. Sorry, I am no where near convinced that he is worth a shot yet. My opinion of Fausto Carmona has not changed. Even though he has provided the Indians with back to back wins and an equally solid no decision prior to that, he is still giving up too many walks and fails to strike out batters. I'll give him a reluctant nod here, for his recent ability to prevent things from getting out of hand. I don't don't see him as much more than an AL only option.
Brandon Backe HOU @ Ryan Dempster CHC
Brandon Backe says he's figured out why he's pitched so badly at times this month. However, he failed to elaborate on that, and I have to ask the question, What about all the previous months? Are we supposed to believe that the same guy who allowed eleven runs on nine hits, with five walks in 5.2 innings is suddenly a new pitcher because he managed what was still a rather unimpressive win against the Mets. Or that he just suddenly realized over night why he completely sucks and is now ready to be the Astros Ace? Mr. Backe, listen up buddy. You are an absolutely horrible f***ing pitcher. See what you are doing now? You are making my editor do some actual work because I'm not supposed to use that word, but you have forced my hand because you are that bad. You are a free agent in my 20 team league that starts nine pitchers per team. So suck my balls you delusional jolly ol' fellow, it's one win that comes after your worst outing of the season, get over yourself. Ryan Dempster is owned, so this segment serves no real purpose, I'm sure none of you were so moved by Backe's speech that you rushed to pick him up.
Wednesday September 3, 2008
Jorge Campillo ATL @ Chris Volstad FLO
Jorge Campillo has given up five runs in three of his last four starts with six or less innings per outing. The run he had earlier this season appears to be over. Despite his 3.37 season ERA, he has posted a 7.02 ERA in his last three starts and must be avoided until he manages to right his ship again. Chris Volstad has been far from consistent himself. Due to the fact that he does not pitch deep in to games, his win-loss record has suffered. I don't see Volstad as a viable mixed league pitcher, but the match up seems to lean in his favor. Use him as a desperation option only.
Oliver Perez NYM @ Dave Bush MIL
Oliver Perez has taken three straight no decisions and has walked five batters in two of those games. Nothing has changed, Oli remains too inconsistent for me to recommend as a spot start. You just never know what you are going to get from him. Normally the same would be said for David Bush, but he has come on extremely strong over the past couple of months. He has now won his last four decisions and has a 2.66 ERA in his last three starts. Bush has also won both of his previous appearances against the Mets holding them to only three earned runs in total. Continue to spot start Bush.
Carl Pavano NYY @ Edwin Jackson TB
Carl Pavano has won both of his starts since his return, but they came against the Orioles and the Blue Jays. He also still has an ERA over 6.00 and a 1.60 WHIP. It is far from impressive when you compare all the numbers. I don't think anyone really takes Pavano seriously as a pitcher and starting him against the AL East leading Rays would be a big mistake. Edwin Jackson has won back to back games as well against the White Sox and the Jays, allowing only a combined three runs in those starts. He did walk five White Sox batters which is a bit of a concern but overall he pitched very well. Run support has not been an issue for Jackson as he has received plenty of it this season. Feel confident that the trend will continue despite some inconsistency from Jackson along the way.
Dana Eveland OAK @ Brian Bannister KC
Dana Eveland is obviously feeling better after a stint in the minor leagues. Eveland was doing superbly this season until it all began to unravel and he was sent to AAA to work on his mechanics. He returned to pitch a gem against Seattle fanning seven batters in seven innings. He did well in his second start against the Twins even though the strikeouts weren't there and he failed to factor in to the decision. Eveland is back on track and should be picked up again in any league. Clearly some are skeptical as he ownership remains very low. He should have no problem with the Royals, and Brain Bannister remains as awful as ever. Don't be fooled by one good start against the Rangers.
Thursday September 4, 2008
Thursdays are enough of a challenge to find four pitching match ups worth analyzing as it is. However, looking at the projected pitchers for September 4th all I can see is owned, and garbage. Tom Gorzelanny, Kenny Rogers, Jo-Jo Reyes, Darrell Rasner, Dan Meyer, Kyle Davies, I can't suggest any of them. Perhaps Jeff Suppan would have gotten the nod as a desperation spot start, but not against Jake Peavy. You'll survive one day without streaming, you may not survive using any of the options available to you today.
Friday September 5, 2008
Brett Myers PHI @ Mike Pelfrey NYM
Brett Myers, what are we gonna do with you? We gave you one last chance and you gave us a night to remember. Myers has a ridiculous 1.66 ERA in his last six starts including a complete game shut out, and two seven inning scoreless performances. On top of that, his strikeout numbers in those games can only be described as redonkulous. I'm probably too old to really know what that means, but I hear it's what the cool kids are saying. There is always the risk that Myers will burn you again at the drop of a hat, but right now he is far too sexy to stay angry at. Mike Pelfrey ain't exactly your brother's ugly sister right now either. Pelfrey has won three straight with an ERA of 1.44 and has gone the distance in his last two. The strikeouts make Myers a far more attractive option, but if you get shot down when checking your free agent pool, Pelfrey is a decent plan B.
Ricky Nolasco FLA @ Braden Looper STL
Ricky Nolasco and Braden Looper are looking like another win-win situation. Both have won two of their last three and although Nolasco has a slightly better ERA in that span, Looper has gone seven innings in his past six starts. Nolasco is the better strike out pitcher and rarely gives up walks. Looper is just about ready for a melt down as he has been pitching over his head all season. I'm going to recommend Nolasco and not Looper this week.
Anthony Reyes CLE @ Brandon Duckworth KC
Anthony Reyes is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his four starts since being traded to the Indians, yet remains only 35% owned in 12 team leagues. He recently faced the Texas Rangers in his longest outing of the season allowing only one earned run for a no decision. Fantasy owners need to forget about his ineffectiveness as a starter in previous seasons and respect what he is doing now. Reyes is worthy of ownership in all leagues of at least 12 teams and a must add in AL only leagues. Brandon Duckworth may have won his first start since his call up this season, but he failed to post any strikeouts in his five innings against the Tigers. Duckworth can't really be taken seriously mostly due to his career 5.35 ERA, but also because he pitches for the Royals. This should be another strong outing for Reyes.
Brian Moehler HOU @ Ubaldo Jimenez COL
Brain Moehler and Ubaldo Jimenez both enjoyed nice winning streaks in late July and early August. However, it's been all down hill since. Both now have ERA's of about 5.00 in their last three starts and horrible career ERA's against the others respective teams. Neither is effective enough to take a risk on, so ignore both of these options on Friday.
Saturday September 6, 2008
Jamie Moyer PHI @ Pedro Martinez NYM
Jamie Moyer had a pretty easy road to travel in his recent starts facing the Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, Padres and Nationals again. Although he provided some solid outings in those five games, he only managed a 2-1 record. Then reality came knocking as Moyer had to face a real team again. The Mets smacked Moyer around for nine hits and six runs sending Moyer back to the locker room after only three innings. Now the Mets have an opportunity to do it to him again. Pedro Martinez is still pitching deeper in to games than he was in the first half, as well as posting strong strikeout numbers. However, in his last two outings he also allowed a lot more earned runs. We'll forgive him for that since he had allowed more than two runs only once since his reactivation in late July after the death of his father. Continue to ride out Pedro.
Scott Olsen FLA @ Todd Wellemeyer STL
Scott Olsen's struggles continue as in his last two starts he allowed both the Braves and Giants to get the best of him. If he can't pitch well against those two teams right now I certainly don't want him in my lineup when he's facing Albert Pujols and the Cardinals. Olsen has only six wins in 29 starts this season, and isn't even recording strikeouts any more. He is a terrible option for any team right now. Todd Wellemeyer couldn't get it done against the Brewers in his last start as they humiliated the Cards in a 12-0 finish. Wellemeyer was only responsible for four of those runs in a six inning night, and even some of those are partially to blame on fielders who looked like they were playing with gloves that were a couple sizes two small. Wellemeyer did manage to win three in a row before that and hasn't lost since July 12th. Wellemeyer has been a remarkable waiver wire addition to deeper leagues this season and remains a strong spot start option.
Wandy Rodriguez HOU @ Jeff Francis COL
Do two solid outings and a win make Jeff Francis a suitable fantasy pitcher again? I doubt it. Especially since the Dodgers are ice cold right now, and a win over the Giants is never much of an accomplishment. On the other hand, with the complete mess we've seen from Francis all season three earned runs in 13 innings is still something to think about. Francis has also held the Houston Astros to a 1.93 ERA in his previous outings against them. As of right now the Astros would have more success allowing the opposing batters to hit off a tee than hit off Wandy Rodriguez. I am skeptical that Francis is suddenly going to turn his season around. but I feel comfortable suggesting him for his start this weekend.
Tim Wakefield BOS @ Kevin Millwood TEX
I warned you last week not to be fooled by Kevin Millwood's complete game one run performance against the Tigers. Now that he has repeated that feat, his ownership is rising. It came against the Royals, and again I think people are being fooled by a deceptive performance against a team that can't hit. Millwood didn't just suddenly become an ace overnight. He earned that 4.95 ERA and 1.64 WHIP this season with one poor performance after another. He also hadn't pitched out of the sixth inning in countless performances before this. Come on people, I know you are smarter than this. Millwood isn't worth a jug of warm piss and you all know it. Tim Wakefield is a bit more of a risk as a spot start than he used to be. He hasn't pitched deep in to games this season and has been knocked around in a few starts, but despite it all he is still on pace for the best season ERA of his career. Wakefield as now won back to back starts as well. Millwood can't handle the Red Sox lineup, so Wakefield should have no problem getting run support here.
Sunday September 7, 2008
Jason Marquis CHC @ Aaron Harang CIN
Jason Marquis is 3-0 in his last four starts against some rather easy competition. The only remarkable feat he accomplished was going seven innings against the Pirates without walking anyone. Marquis is a bad pitcher on a contending team. He may have his moments, but if you look at his season numbers it's not hard to see why he cannot be relied on for an entire season, and I don't personally want to risk him even in an easier match up. Maybe if he struck out more batters, but he doesn't. The Reds may look hot after sweeping the Giants in a three game series, and maybe they are because as bad as the Giants are, the Reds aren't much better. The Reds haven't fared too poorly against the Cubs this year. In two July series with the Cubs they went 3-3, and almost took a fourth game as they rallied in the ninth inning to score five runs but allowed the winning Cubs run to score in the eleventh inning. Harang has pitched well in his last two starts, he may have lost one of them but only allowed three runs through seven innings and struck out eight batters. This recommendation comes from the gut only, since most people have the brains enough to stay clear of both these guys. Give Harang a shot.
Josh Johnson FLA @ Joel Pineiro STL
It's hard to believe that Josh Johnson has come back from Tommy John surgery to actually pitch better then he ever did prior to it. Johnson is now 4-0 in nine starts and his strikeout numbers are enough to prove that the surgery has not affected his velocity. I'm not sure what is going on with Joel Pineiro at the moment. The Cards were planning to pull him from the rotation and have him work in long relief, now he's scheduled to start a game again. His spot in the rotation now depends on the health of Chris Carpenter. Pineiro should make this start as scheduled, but regardless you should ignore him.
Joe Saunders ANA @ Clayton Richard CHW
Joe Saunders had been solid (even if unspectacular us usual) through most of the season. He now hasn't won a game in his last five starts and has an ERA of almost 12.00 in his last three alone. Saunders is among the lowest caliber strike out pitchers in the MLB, so when he can't get out of the second inning before allowing six runs against a team like the Oakland A's, you know it's time to cut him loose. Clayton Richard has done alright for him self in his last two starts, but posted an ERA over 9.00 in his three starts before that. First of all the White Sox need to determine whether they want Richard in the bullpen or the rotation, because yanking him back and fourth can't be helping him in his adjustment to the big leagues. Richard has plenty of upside, but I wouldn't chance him just yet.
Paul Byrd BOS @ Matt Harrison TEX
Paul Byrd has now won six of his last seven appearances, it's amazing what a team that can score eight or more runs in a game on a fairly regular basis can do for a below average pitcher. It's no secret now that I think Matt Harrison has the potential to be an amazing pitcher. Although he posted four wins in August, he still got roughed up at times and has plenty to work on. The Red Sox are just too much for him this early in his career. My money is on Byrd.
Highlight Of The Week
Elijah Dukes (OF) Washington Nationals
Maybe the Nationals pitchers aren't worth a damn, but Elijah Dukes has returned from the DL picking up right where he left off. Smacking long balls and stealing bases. Dukes only two hits against the Dodgers soon after his return both found the cheap seats. It's nice to see that the problematic outfielder finally has his head on straight and is focusing on baseball. Between trying to smash David Bush's face open with his batting helmet and an alleged murder plot of his wife, Elijah Dukes has been in the headlines for everything but his baseball accomplishments for the past couple of years. However, if he stays on his current pace and keeps himself in check he could prove to be a poor mans Carl Crawford, and a nice pick up for those that are struggling after losing Crawford for the season.
Field of Streams :: 8/25/08
by Tenacious D-Store
Published: August 26, 2008, 12:07 am
But I don't see it in my sent items?
Welcome back for another edition of Tenacious D-Store's Field Of Streams. Each week, I will focus on some of the better pickups who should be available in the majority of leagues for each day of the week as well as some that should be avoided. Since some people also choose to stream an outfield or utility spot with a hot bat each week, I will also include a weekly highlight on a hitter who may fly under your radar. Let's get started.
NOTE: All starts are probable. I can not be held responsible for last minute managerial decisions, injuries, rain-outs, alien abductions, arrests etc.
Monday August 25, 2008
Brian Moehler HOU @ Mike Pelfrey NYM
Brian Moehler hasn't lost since June 18th and has won his last five decisions. He nearly pitched a complete game on July 29th during a brilliant three game winning streak as well. However, many of his wins this season have been due to late inning rallies and pure luck. He has not had a very successful career as a starter by any means despite his recent hot streak. I suppose the same could be said of Mike Pelfrey, who is also having a nice run right now winning his last two starts and four of his last six decisions. Neither will provide much in the means of strike outs, but Pelfrey has been pitching deeper in to games lately. I think it's important in this case to look beyond the most recent starts. Pelfrey is clearly the better pitcher, and the NL East leading Mets are more likely to provide the run support needed to secure a win. Go with Pelfrey in this match up. If Pelfrey is not available to you, I still don't recommend falling back on Moehler. Reality is bound to catch up to him soon.
Kevin Millwood TEX @ Gil Meche KC
Kevin Millwood is coming off what could be a career best outing for him. He pitched a complete game against the Detroit Tigers allowing only one run on six hits. However, most of his other starts this season have been horrendous, and he still has a 5.28 ERA in his last three starts including on that only lasted 1.2 innings. Millwood cannot be relied on for fantasy use and it is unrealistic to expect a repeat of his last outing. Although Gil Meche hasn't gotten a decision in his last three starts he still pitched very well keeping his ERA below 2.80 and posted a ton of strikeouts. He really hasn't pitched poorly since his three game losing skid in early June. The Royals may not have a lot to offer and may not always provide the run support needed for a win, but Meche's strike outs in and of themselves are extremely valuable. There is no real contest here.
Dallas Braden OAK @ Jered Weaver ANA
Dallas Braden has done pretty well for himself in his last three starts and has clearly become more confident in his strike out pitches. I still wouldn't expect more than four strikeouts per start at the most despite the fact that he just struck out seven Twins in 5.2 innings. Braden certainly has what it takes to become a very good pitcher, but he is too young and green to demand consistency from. Add to that a lack of offense from the Oakland A's and Braden becomes a very risky spot start outside of AL only leagues. As for Jered Weaver, I think I've made it clear through my writings that I would prefer not to have anything named Weaver on my teams. Weaver certainly has a great offense behind him, but he fails to pitch late in to games resulting in a lot of no decisions. He is capable of posting obscene strike out numbers even during a bad outing. That combined with a team that will provide better run support make Weaver the better option in this match up, but one that is not without risk as well.
Jeff Francis COL @ Matt Cain SF
Jeff Francis continues to stink up the joint, and it's beginning to make me nauseous. I don't even want to discuss him in this column anymore. Matt Cain on the other hand has been lights out most of the season, yet his season loses outweigh his wins. It's just so sad to see someone who is among the MLB's most elite pitchers, waste away on a piss poor team. The lack of wins makes Cain virtually useless in points based leagues, but he still provides solid stats in the other four main pitching categories in roto leagues. Feel confident using him there.
Tuesday August 26, 2008
Derek Lowe LA @ Collin Balester WAS
It doesn't take much to beat the Nationals or Braves this season so Derek Lowe's most recent wins remain unimpressive. He did manage |
