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Field of Streams :: 8/25/08
by Tenacious D-Store
Published: August 26, 2008, 12:07 am
But I don't see it in my sent items?
Welcome back for another edition of Tenacious D-Store's Field Of Streams. Each week, I will focus on some of the better pickups who should be available in the majority of leagues for each day of the week as well as some that should be avoided. Since some people also choose to stream an outfield or utility spot with a hot bat each week, I will also include a weekly highlight on a hitter who may fly under your radar. Let's get started.
NOTE: All starts are probable. I can not be held responsible for last minute managerial decisions, injuries, rain-outs, alien abductions, arrests etc.
Monday August 25, 2008
Brian Moehler HOU @ Mike Pelfrey NYM
Brian Moehler hasn't lost since June 18th and has won his last five decisions. He nearly pitched a complete game on July 29th during a brilliant three game winning streak as well. However, many of his wins this season have been due to late inning rallies and pure luck. He has not had a very successful career as a starter by any means despite his recent hot streak. I suppose the same could be said of Mike Pelfrey, who is also having a nice run right now winning his last two starts and four of his last six decisions. Neither will provide much in the means of strike outs, but Pelfrey has been pitching deeper in to games lately. I think it's important in this case to look beyond the most recent starts. Pelfrey is clearly the better pitcher, and the NL East leading Mets are more likely to provide the run support needed to secure a win. Go with Pelfrey in this match up. If Pelfrey is not available to you, I still don't recommend falling back on Moehler. Reality is bound to catch up to him soon.
Kevin Millwood TEX @ Gil Meche KC
Kevin Millwood is coming off what could be a career best outing for him. He pitched a complete game against the Detroit Tigers allowing only one run on six hits. However, most of his other starts this season have been horrendous, and he still has a 5.28 ERA in his last three starts including on that only lasted 1.2 innings. Millwood cannot be relied on for fantasy use and it is unrealistic to expect a repeat of his last outing. Although Gil Meche hasn't gotten a decision in his last three starts he still pitched very well keeping his ERA below 2.80 and posted a ton of strikeouts. He really hasn't pitched poorly since his three game losing skid in early June. The Royals may not have a lot to offer and may not always provide the run support needed for a win, but Meche's strike outs in and of themselves are extremely valuable. There is no real contest here.
Dallas Braden OAK @ Jered Weaver ANA
Dallas Braden has done pretty well for himself in his last three starts and has clearly become more confident in his strike out pitches. I still wouldn't expect more than four strikeouts per start at the most despite the fact that he just struck out seven Twins in 5.2 innings. Braden certainly has what it takes to become a very good pitcher, but he is too young and green to demand consistency from. Add to that a lack of offense from the Oakland A's and Braden becomes a very risky spot start outside of AL only leagues. As for Jered Weaver, I think I've made it clear through my writings that I would prefer not to have anything named Weaver on my teams. Weaver certainly has a great offense behind him, but he fails to pitch late in to games resulting in a lot of no decisions. He is capable of posting obscene strike out numbers even during a bad outing. That combined with a team that will provide better run support make Weaver the better option in this match up, but one that is not without risk as well.
Jeff Francis COL @ Matt Cain SF
Jeff Francis continues to stink up the joint, and it's beginning to make me nauseous. I don't even want to discuss him in this column anymore. Matt Cain on the other hand has been lights out most of the season, yet his season loses outweigh his wins. It's just so sad to see someone who is among the MLB's most elite pitchers, waste away on a piss poor team. The lack of wins makes Cain virtually useless in points based leagues, but he still provides solid stats in the other four main pitching categories in roto leagues. Feel confident using him there.
Tuesday August 26, 2008
Derek Lowe LA @ Collin Balester WAS
It doesn't take much to beat the Nationals or Braves this season so Derek Lowe's most recent wins remain unimpressive. He did manage to defeat the Phillies in his last win and followed it up with a great seven inning display against the Brewers allowing only a single run, but still not pulling off the win. It's hard to view the Dodgers as real contenders considering the Kindergarten class NL West division, and Lowe's inconsistencies are worrisome. However, his best recent outing was against the Nationals, and he will face them again here. Collin Balester isn't anywhere near as bad a pitcher as his stats reflect, but the Washington Nationals are every bit as horrid as their .352 winning percentage reflects. That leaves Balester unworthy of consideration in anything other than the deepest of NL only leagues. The Nats couldn't possibly do much damage to Lowe. So this is a relatively safe opportunity to start him.
Scott Olsen FLA @ Jair Jurrjens ATL
Scott Olsen is winless in his last six games picking up the big L in four of them. He has allowed nine or more hits in each of his last three starts and his ERA has risen significantly. This is what happens when a great prospect skips AAA altogether. Olsen was never properly conditioned to face major league hitters and it is too late to change what the Marlins have done to him. Even though Olsen is still rather young I don't ever see him becoming a viable pitcher in mixed fantasy leagues. With a better managed team, it could have been a very different story. Jair Jurrjens cannot be blamed for a pair of fielding errors leading to his most recent loss, but the fact that he walked three in a row certainly didn't help anything. He did his part to ensure he got himself out of trouble. It was Chipper Jones who dropped, the ball or in this case practically threw it in to the dugout. Jurrjens has been the most solid member of the Braves pitching staff, a couple of rough starts aren't enough to frighten my away from activating him.
Pedro Martinez NYM @ Jamie Moyer PHI
Pedro Martinez continues to pitch well and appears to be gaining some endurance as he is now pitching in to the sixth and seventh innings again. He is not allowing many earned runs at all. If he can manage to give us seven or even eight innings again and lock down a few more wins, I may have to eat my words about him barely being an NL only viable starter. His lack of run support is not likely to continue so taking a chance on Pedro down the stretch isn't a bad option. Moyer has done very well for himself this season, and recently he and Pedro's stats are very similar right down to the lack of run support. However, everything Moyer has done, Pedro has done just a little bit better. I surprise myself this week as Pedro gets the nod over Moyer. Neither is a horrible option but with two beefed up line ups like these teams offer, mistakes by either pitcher will be capitalized on in the unforgivable band box that is Citizens Bank Park.
Ben Sheets MIL @ Todd Wellemeyer STL
A side from a five hit compete game shut out of the Nationals, Ben Sheets can't seem to buy a win lately losing the other four of his last five starts and picking up countless no decisions since early July. Sheets has remained healthy this season, and run support cannot be blamed. Despite a reasonable ERA, Sheets has not quite been the type of pitcher we expect him to be. You can't choose to bench someone you invested so heavily in this season without good cause, so if you own him you might as well activate him. However, look for Todd Wellemeyer who has won three in a row and is 4-0 in his last eight starts, to get the better of the Brewers adding to his recent winning streak. The Brewers have clobbered Wellemeyer to the tune of a 5.85 ERA in 20 innings over his career, but Sheet's 5-14 record against the Cards isn't all that flattering either. The way Wellemeyer is pitching he shouldn't have any problems picking up his first career win against Milwaukee.
Wednesday August 27, 2008
Glen Perkins MIN @ Ryan Feierabend SEA
Glen Perkins has defiantly redeemed himself after ruffling some feathers with a poorly thought out comment in an early season interview. Even so, his comment doesn't appear to be so off base given the success he has seen this season. Remember, it's only arrogance if you can't back it up, otherwise it's called confidence. With a 10-3 record in 19 appearances this season, Perkins continues to dominate even the most feared AL teams. The Yankees, The White Sox, The Tigers, The Rangers, and the lowly Mariners have all been no match for Perkins in the past five weeks alone. He has an upcoming game against the Angels which is only hours away as I write this, but with soft throwing opposing pitcher Joe Saunders taking the mound, Perkins could easily add the Angels to his path of destruction. Perkins has earned my respect. As for Ryan Feierabend, he's just not major league material. Although he has only pitched three innings this season, it resulted in an ERA of 18.00 and WHIP of nearly 4.00. He now has a total career ERA of 7.42 on 69 innings pitched at the major league level. It's hard to believe this is the same pitcher who went 7-1 with a 2.04 ERA in 13 starts for Triple-A Tacoma before his call up this season. Don't even consider using Feierabend if Perkins is unavailable in your league. (Update: Perkins completely dominated the Angels pitching eight scoreless innings for the win).
Paul Byrd BOS @ Sidney Ponson NYY
Paul Byrd's last three straight starts have been against the Blue Jays. He started off with a complete game for the win allowing only two runs, while still with the Indians. He didn't fare as well in his first start with the Red Sox as the Jays got to him for ten hits and four runs through seven innings. He then followed that up with a very similar performance where he at least got enough run support to pick up a win. All this proves that offense doesn't necessarily make a bad pitcher better. The Blue Jays also recently made a victim out of Sidney Ponson who had actually been riding a nice hot streak. The Jays butchered the porky Ponson for eight hits and seven runs in only two innings ending his night early. Even when Ponson was red hot when the Yankees first put him to work, his ownership in fantasy league remained very low. Obviously, we all knew it was too good to be true and wouldn't last as Ponson now stands 0-2 in his last three starts. Byrd has still won five of his last six games and has pitched well enough to have only a 1.98 ERA in his last five starts. He is not an over powering pitcher and won't post more than a few strike outs tops, but he seems like a solid low end spot starter on a solid team.
Greg Maddux LA @ Tim Redding WAS
42 year old Greg Maddux is back in Dodger town who he spent a few months with late in the 2006 season. Maddux offers very little to a fantasy team, but although he doesn't throw very hard, his pin point accuracy remains as solid as ever. Maddux was riding a three game winning streak with the pathetic Padres before joining the Dodgers. He continued to pitch very well in his first start with L.A allowing just a single run, but the Dodgers failed to get anything going and Maddux still picked up the loss. I'm not going to recommend any Nationals pitcher right now, not even Tim Redding who has been solid, but far from spectacular. Ride out Maddux for a little bit longer. He's not a great fantasy option with his low strike out totals, but he will be an asset to your ERA and WHIP and should also pick up the win here.
Matt Harrison TEX @ Brian Bannister KC
Hmm... Matt Harrison who is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 3.72 ERA, or Brian Bannister who is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 12.75 ERA and hasn't won a game since June 24th. This is a tough one. Brian Bannister also continues to perform even worse in night games as he does in days games, and this well be an evening game. Decisions, decisions. All sarcasm aside. Matt Harrison also has slightly better stats in day games and home games, and this game falls under neither of those categories. He also hasn't had enough starts for those stats to mean much of anything since he struggled a bit while adjusting after his call up. He is smoking hot right now, not only enjoying a three game winning streak, but also shutting down the AL East leading Rays through eight innings adding a K per inning as well. This really is an easy choice, Bannister has had a horrible season and isn't about to suddenly turn it around here.
Thursday August 28, 2008
David Purcey TOR @ Edwin Jackson TB
We begin another lowly Thursday with a look at free agent spot start options who are probably free agents for very obvious reasons. What was originally a great hard breaking slider has now become a predictable pitch that hitters seem to hungrily wait on when David Purcey is on the mound, and Purceys curve ball and change up are laughable. Therefore in Purcey's last start after struggling to establish his curve ball, he turned to repetitive fastballs allowing hitters to comfortably sit back knowing what was coming and wait for the one they liked. The result was a four inning disaster where he allowed seven hits and five runs, and would have allowed many more if not for some amazing fielding by the Jays. Unfortunetly, Toronto does not currently have the luxury of sending Purcey down to AAA to work on his mechanics and command. The potential is there for him to be a good #3 pitcher for the Jays but he is being pushed too hard and too fast due to injury woes. Edwin Jackson is rolling once again, and although he is far from one of the leagues more consistent pitchers he has the blazing Tampa Bay Rays providing him with enough run support to recover from the odd mistake. Jackson is now 4-1 in his last five starts and has now lowered his once bloated ERA to below 4.00. Jackson has had difficulty against the Jays, his record against them current sits at 1-3 in nine appearances, but the Rays patient hitters will be a nightmare for Purcey if he continues to rely solely on his fastball.
Anibal Sanchez FLA @ Charlie Morton ATL
Anibal Sanchez is 2-2 in his four starts since coming off the DL. Even in the starts that he lost he only allowed three earned runs apiece. He hasn't exactly been lights out, but he is showing promise and striking out more than a batter per inning on average. Charlie Morton has been a complete disaster at home in Turner Field failing to win all of his nine starts there this season. Morton also got pounded in his only start against the Marlins this season, while Sanchez has pitched very well against the Braves with a combined 1.80 ERA against them in two career starts. Stick with Sanchez.
Nick Blackburn MIN @ Gio Gonzalez OAK
Both Gio Gonzalez and the A's have failed to impress this season and I'm sure I don't have to warn any one to leave Gio alone until he proves he can locate his pitches. Oakland actually managed to pull off a victory recently when they faced Nick Blackburn, but it was still a solid outing as Blackburn went eight innings allowing only three runs. Although he has had a nice rookie season, keeping his ERA under 4.00 and coming up on double digit wins, Blackburn does not have knockout stuff. He will still provide decent stats overall with the exception of his low strike out numbers. He still isn't someone I would want to rely on regularly outside of AL only leagues, but he is a nice spot start option when the match up is right. Oakland and a struggling Gio Gonzalez appear to be the right time.
Brandon McCarthy TEX @ Jon Garland ANA
Brandon McCarthy is coming off 13 scoreless innings over two starts at the AAA level and will now join the Rangers so called major league rotation. The AAA outings are very promising since McCarthy has been out all season with forearm issues. However, he has never really shined at the major league level. He is young enough and talented enough to turn that all around with a late start to his third season as a major leaguer which is typically a breakout period for young talent. Jon Garland has won three of his last five, but his high ERA and low strike out numbers reflect the fact that his success is more related to run support than dominant pitching. The Rangers are familiar with Garland as they have tattooed him for a 4-8 record and 5.87 ERA in 18 previous meetings. I'm all over McCarthy here, despite what I've said about minor league starts meaning nothing when it comes to the show, He truly looked amazing in his two rehab starts. It's time McCarthy brings it like we all know his capable of. Not only do I recommend him as a spot start, but suggest you grab him in all AL only and deeper leagues immediately.
Friday August 29, 2008
Jesse Litsch TOR @ Darrell Rasner NYY
After going from the Jays most effective starter earlier in the season to an absolute mess almost overnight, Jessie Litsch made his return to the Blue Jays rotation shutting out the Tigers through seven innings for a no decision. He then stepped up for the Jays again last weekend pitching six scoreless innings against the Red Sox, in an embarrassing 11-0 Boston defeat. As usual the Jays offense has exploded when it's too late in the season to even matter. They still have little hope of contending, but regardless they are hitting, and Litsch appears to have found his groove once again. Darrell Rasner continues to do very little of any interest to any fantasy owner. Even if the Yankees rally, Litsch has the potential to post better numbers in a loss than Rasner will with the win. Not that he is likely to see the win since he can't pitch out of the fifth inning most of the time. I wouldn't be jumping on Litsch in any league just yet. Look for better options first, but I would take him over Rasner any day.
Dave Bush MIL @ Jeff Karstens PIT
Dave Bush may be one of the most over looked pitchers in fantasy leagues this season. He has maintained an extremely low WHIP of 1.12 this season as well as moderate strike out numbers. However, when Bush is off his game things get ugly quickly and he has been the victim of the occasional blow out leaving his ERA something to be desired. Bush has a 3-0 record in his last three starts, and although those wins came against the Pirates and Nationals, he recently dominated the Rockies posting 13 strike outs in eight shutout innings. Jeff Karstens was far less impressive in his last two appearances as he was in his previous starts as a Pirate. Karstens allowed a combined 16 hits and seven runs against the Mets and Reds, which isn't horrible but not what those who picked him up want to see. Bush is the hot hand right now, so give him the spot start and wait to see if Karstens manages to turn things around.
Jorge Campillo ATL @ Odalis Perez WAS
Jorge Campillo has already pitched far more inning this season than he is accustomed to, and it is beginning to show. With a 7.04 ERA in his last four starts after an impressive first half, the only thing Campillo has maintained is his low WHIP as he very rarely walks a batter. Campillo will most likely not be a viable mixed league option from this point out, with his aggressive approach and his decreasing velocity those fast balls down the middle are getting hit and hit hard. So for the second week in a row I'm going to recommend Odalis Perez for NL only and deeper leagues. It's tough for Perez to pick up wins on a team that struggles to score runs, but he has continued to pitch well despite a lack of strike outs. The Braves have a pretty weak offense themselves so it's not too unreasonable to think that Perez could pick up the win here.
Hiroki Kuroda LA @ Yusmeiro Petit ARI
After three consecutive seven plus inning starts where Hiroki Kuroda allowed only one earned run, he suffered a loss to the Rockies. He didn't pitch poorly allowing only six hits in as many innings, but made enough mistakes that the Rockies were able to capitalize scoring four runs to win the game. His earlier start against the Phillies this week will probably be pretty ugly as Kuroda tends to leave his fast ball up, in Citizens Bank Park you simply cannot do that, as what would be a pop out in most stadiums becomes a home run in Philadelphia. Yusmeiro Petit has posted a 2.89 ERA in his five starts this season and proved he can go seven strong innings when needed. He has far better strike out potential than Kuroda, and with the Dodgers scrapping at the heals of the D-Backs in the race to be the NL East division champs, I expect the D-Backs to turn in on to ensure they extend the gap. I'm going with Petit in this one.
Saturday August 30, 2008
Felix Hernandez SEA @ Anthony Reyes CLE
Unless you play in a NL only league, Felix Hernandez will be owned, but his owners can't be too thrilled about his performances lately. King Felix is 0-2 in his last six outings. He has struggled with his control and allowed far too many hits. Anthony Reyes however, has remained solid since joining the Indians rotation. Despite a recent embarrassing loss to the Orioles, he is now a must own pitcher in AL only leagues and a respectable mixed league option. Expect Reyes to have little trouble against a weak Seattle line up and feel confident starting him on Saturday.
Braden Looper STL @ Brian Moehler HOU
Braden Looper has allowed two runs or less in each of his last six starts, and somehow only managed a 2-2 record during that span. He has now matched his season high for career wins and still remains unowned in the majority of leagues. Anyone who follows baseball knows that Looper is prone to a melt down at any time, but although he doesn't K many batters he has been a solid choice as a bottom end starter even in 10 team leagues. Brian Moehler is also pitching well, but not as well as Looper. Moehler carries a higher ERA and WHIP and also has less strike out abilities. Although Moehler has never lost when facing St. Louis he has only won three starts in fourteen career appearances. The main differences right now is that Moehler is winning games he shouldn't be, while the exact opposite can be said for Looper at the moment. The law of averages has to catch up to these two and even the score eventually. Go with Looper who has a minuscule 1.71 ERA in his last three starts.
Mark Buehrle CHW @ Tim Wakefield BOS
Tim Wakefield is back from the DL after some shoulder woes, but one has to have concerns as to whether or not he is being rushed back to work after the loss of Josh Beckett due to his dead arm. Consider Wakefield far too big a risk even in AL only leagues until he can definitively prove his health. Mark Buehrle was riding a three game winning streak until the Tampa Bay Devil Rays came to town. The Rays seem to be enjoying spoiling the party this season, and they have handed far worse losses to far better pitchers this year. The White Sox rallied late in the game to squeak by with a win, but Buehrle picked up a no decision. Buehrle pitched a gem on August 8th when he faced the Red Sox, he should be able to hold his own in this rematch.
Kevin Correia SF @ Johnny Cueto CIN
Well I called it last week, Kevin Correia did in fact beat the Padres to pick up his third win of the season. He gave up a homer with his very first pitch of the game, but remained calm and was solid after that. However, a pitcher who only has three wins, and just earned his second since April is not someone who really belongs on any fantasy team. There is no way he gets another recommendation from me this week. I was all ready to give Johnny Cueto the go, until he left his April 24th start in the third inning with what is being reported as sore triceps. Risking a pitcher with a sore arm is just as foolish as expecting back to back wins from a Giants pitcher. Forget them both this week.
Sunday August 31, 2008
Matt Cain SF @ Bronson Arroyo CIN
Funny that we would go from a comment about the unlikelihood of back to back wins from a Giants pitcher, to one that seems to win only every second start. Matt Cain did not get a decision in his last start, and I recommended him against Jeff Francis and the Rockies earlier this week. So where does that leave us now? Bronson Arroyo is coming off a respectable outing against the Cubs, but overall he his been rather unimpressive this season. Matt Cain has an earned run average that is almost 2.00 lower than Arroyo's, and Arroyo's bloated WHIP doesn't even compare to Cain's. I have no choice but to be a hypocrite here and predict back to back wins for Matt Cain, and as I do almost every week, steer you away from Arroyo who has little to offer in any situation.
Todd Wellemeyer STL @ Wandy Rodriguez HOU
My reasons for recommending Todd Wellemeyer remain the same as when I suggested him for Tuesday's start. Although Wandy Rodriguez has allowed fewer hits than usual in his last few starts, he still isn't winning or pitching very deep in to games. The reasons are fairly obvious.
Scott Baker MIN @ Greg Smith OAK
Scott Baker hasn't had a decision in his last five starts, despite facing offensive weaklings like the Royals and the Mariners twice. He hasn't been horribly bad, but hasn't been consistent enough to be labeled anything but mediocre. In four major league seasons now, Baker really hasn't improved at all. What you see is what you get, and I doubt that will ever change. Greg Smith has performed on very much the same level, but this is still his rookie year. I wouldn't comfortably start either of these guys, but at least Smith managed to beat the Mariners. Try him in AL only leagues.
Kevin Millwood TEX @ John Lackey ANA
Wow, a six hit complete game from Kevin Millwood. Well I'm impressed aren't you? (note: Tenacious D-Store is using sarcasm). Personally I'm impressed by the fact that he allowed less than 10 hits in a game for a change. He managed that in only five innings in three straight starts before this one. Don't be fooled by the fact that some fantasy sports sites with writers who are clearly less intelligent than you or I or a retarded guppy for that matter, are listing Millwood as hot. The Angels and John Lackey are gonna pound the snot out of him.
Highlight Of The Week
Denard Span (OF) Minnesota Twins
Denard Span is still virtually an unknown name outside of the North Star State. Yet he has been a regular part of the Twins line up, and a differance maker since game one. Span isn't much of a slugger, but he has powered out three long balls. Span has made a bigger impact with his speed, legging out 12 doubles and five triples as well as swiping 11 bases. Even better, is the fact that he has maintained a BA above .300 in just over 200 at bats. Those who found Denard Span in AL only leagues may have found a differance maker down the stretch, but Span is an asset in any league right now, especially roto leagues. It's time more people began paying attention to him. |
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