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Field of Streams :: 8/17
by Tenacious D-Store
Published: August 18, 2008, 8:00 pm
Welcome back for another edition of Tenacious D-Store's Field Of Streams. Each week, I will focus on some of the better pickups who should be available in the majority of leagues for each day of the week as well as some that should be avoided. Since some people also choose to stream an outfield or utility spot with a hot bat each week, I will also include a weekly highlight on a hitter who may fly under your radar. Let's get started.
NOTE: All starts are probable. I can not be held responsible for last minute managerial decisions, injuries, rain-outs, alien abductions, arrests etc.
Monday August 18, 2008
John Maine NYM @ Paul Maholm PIT
John Maine's ownership plummeted to 67% during his DL stint, nearly 30% lower than it had been previously. In his first start back he collected his tenth win of the season in a strong outing against the Nationals. I know, I know, it's the Nationals. Well this week he gets the Pirates so things aren't going to get an more difficult for him. Paul Malholm has been pitching well enough to deserve a recommendation this week too. Especially after striking out 10 Phillies in seven shutout innings. Given his career 3-1 record and 2.16 ERA against the Mets it would appear that you could certainly do worse. Those who forgot about John Maine as he sat in their leagues free agent pool, are likely looking for him right about now. So if you can't find Maine, don't hesitate to settle for Maholm. Just don't expect a win from him. As I've said in the past, there is such a thing as a quality loss.
Barry Zito SF @ Jorge Campillo ATL
When you pitch for a team like the San Fransisco Giants it's easy to blame a lack of wins on a lack of run support. However, when you've racked up 14 losses in 23 starts as Barry Zito has, you know there has to be more to the story. Zito has more losses than any other pitcher in the MLB this season. Johnathan Sanchez has the second most loses for the Giants with nine. Zito was never a great pitcher at any point of his career and now he's not half as good as he used to be. Barry Zito currently isn't even worthy of NL only ownership. Jorge Campillo has last four decisions while averaging five or six K's per start. This will be his first career outing against the Giants, but as of late Campillo has been the Braves most consistent pitcher (which really isn't saying much). This should be no contest for him.
Justin Duchscherer OAK @ Nick Blackburn MIN
Justin Duchscherer has been flat out horrible lately after one of the most surprising first halves of the season where he had the lowest ERA of any MLB starter. The converted middle reliever has already surpassed his innings pitched record for any previous season, and one has to wonder if he has simply run out of gas. I have already begun to drop Duchscherer from some of my shallower leagues and cannot possibly recommend him while his in his current slump. Duchscherer, has also never beaten the Twins. Despite an ugly outing against the Yankees recently, Nick Blackburn has posted decent stats this season. His stuff isn't overly impressive but he gets the job done and is a considerable low end starter for fantasy teams. Blackburn gets the nod this week against the offensively challenged A's and the struggling Duchscherer.
Jarrod Washburn / Mariners Scrub SEA @ Mark Buehrle CHW
By the time this weeks edition of Field Of Streams is published, Jarrod Washburn may be wearing a Cardinals uniform. I doubt it though. Most of the waiver deals seem to head South before they ever truly get off the ground. I wasn't going to recommend him anyway, and if the deal does go down I probably won't recommend the scrub who gets his job either. Mark Buehrle is shaping up to have a suburb second half. A side from ugly back to back loses three weeks ago, Buehrle has been on a roll and has allowed only one run in his last 14 innings pitched. Buehrle should have superior run support and better pitching stats regardless of who takes the mound for Seattle. Not to mention the fact that he is 6-3 at home with a 2.97 ERA, and with the way Buehrle is pitching he is still available in far too many leagues. Go do something about that.
Tuesday August 19, 2008
Phil Hughes NYY @ David Purcey TOR
I took some heat for referring to Phil Hughes as a bust earlier this season. He has yet to even come close to proving otherwise. His minor league numbers are of little interest to me. If he can't bring it to the show, then it's irrelevant. David Purcey pitched six outstanding innings against the Tigers in his last start, but with such an inexperienced young pitcher and the Jays sketchy offense, it's difficult to use Purcey as a spot start. Go for it in AL only, deeper leagues or any league you want to gamble in. I'll give him the green light over Hughes, but it's not someone I'd be jumping to pick up for my leagues.
Luke Hochevar KC @ Anthony Reyes CLE
Luke Hochevar actually pitched quite well in his last start against the White Sox, but there was just no way he could match Mark Buehrle's seven shutouts innings. The fact that Hochevar wasn't absolutely horrible was rather out of character for him. Ethough the Royals looked like they were going to make something happen early in the season, it's back to the same old same old in Kansas City. You can't rely on Hochevar even in an AL only league. Anthony Reyes has been a rather pleasant surprise since his recent call up by the Indians. Reyes has provided six solid innings in both of his major league starts, beating the Blue Jays and being robbed of a victory against the O's. He's also allowed only a combined three runs. The Tribe may not be a very exciting team this season, but they can handle the Royals. I want to see more K's from Reyes, but he's not a bad spot starter in this match up.
Ricky Nolasco FLA @ Kevin Correia SF
I want so much to recommend Kevin Correia after two solid performances in a row, but the last time he faced the Marlins it was a horror show. Ricky Nolasco has been the victim of some tough undeserved losses and no decisions where he pitched well enough to win. However, his last two starts left a lot to be desired. He allowed a lot of hits, but kept the runners in check and hasn't allowed more than three runs in his last four starts. Stick with Nolasco in his very first appearance against the Giants.
Jeff Francis COL @ Brad Penny LA (Chan Ho Park or Hong-Chih Kuo)
Damn, all that rest and Jeff Francis got worse! Francis isn't even getting close to cutting the mustard in any fantasy league of 12 or less teams. Perhaps he's worth stashing on the bench, but for crying out loud don't even think about activating him until he pitches like the ace of the Rockies once again. As I write this, Brad Penny has actually been placed on the 15 day DL. He's been pitching like crap anyway and I'd be more willing to recommend Chan Ho Park or Hong-Chih Kuo, so keep an eye on the situation, and go with either of the later two if there are in fact given the start, don't expect more than five innings though.
Wednesday August 20, 2008
Wandy Rodriguez HOU @ Manny Parra MIL
Wandy Rodriguez finished his last night on the mound after only two innings. It probably wasn't even the three hits and four earned runs that sent manager Cecil Cooper out to the mound, but those six walks he gave up and the fact that it took him 77 pitches to get seven outs. Manny Parra is winless in his last five starts losing his last four decisions. A side from some pretty strike out numbers, he has been a mess this month with an ERA of about 6.00. Neither Rodriguez or Parra have fared well in the past against these opposing teams, and with their struggles at the moment I would suggest you pass on them both. You can find some strike outs elsewhere.
Jason T. Davis PIT @ Todd Wellemeyer STL
For someone who only started five games last year for AAA-Tacoma and hasn't started since, Jason Davis's endurance level was completely unexpected. In his two major league starts he gave six solid shutout innings before getting the ol' pat on the back and an escort back to the dugout. He could be seen saying "I can keep going" to manager John Russell before relenting and calling it a night. Five days later he was back to go seven innings against the Mets only giving up a pair of earned runs, which unfortunately is usually enough to beat the Pirates. Davis doesn't strike many out, and I'm not going to recommend him here, but he might be worth watching in NL only leagues. Todd Wellemeyer saw the seventh inning for the first time in longer than I can remember last week. He also hasn't sucked in his last two starts. We aren't quite seeing the strike out numbers he provided during his hot streak earlier this season, but the Cubs and Marlins are a much bigger handful than the Pirates and he held is own just fine, so feel secure in spot starting Wellemeyer once again.
Jair Jurrjens ATL @ Mike Pelfrey NYM
When comparing Jair Jurrjens and Mike Pelfrey over there last three starts, many might decide to go with Pelfrey since he has won two of those starts while Jurrjens has learned that the Giants have his number and only managed a win over the D-Backs. However, despite the fact that the Giants knocked him around like a pinata in both starts, Jurrjens has still bested Pelfrey in every category other than wins and he has done so all season. Jurrjens also has yet to be beaten by the Mets winning both previous starts with a combined ERA of 2.77. Pelfrey on the other hand has a 1-3 record and 6.85 ERA in five career starts against the Braves. The choice is clear.
Collin Balester WAS @ Brett Myers PHI
Brett Myers? Is that really you? Do you think that after what you did to everyone who drafted you this season, that you can pitch four great games in a row and just stroll back in to our lives like nothing ever happened? You told us you could change and went down to AAA to work on bettering yourself and instead in your first minor league start you walked five batters in the first inning alone, it was all lies Brett and we can't trust you anymore. How do you allow nine runs on six hits and expect us to forget that? You've fooled us in to believing things were going to be different before Brett, once you struck out 11 Giants in seven innings, only to literally get booed off the field in your next start against the Braves. That's right Brett, we all remember, and we're still hurting. It's never going to be like it was two years ago, we're different people now. No more deception, no more manipulation, we are stronger without you, and we've moved on. But, what the Hell. How about one more romp before we say goodbye since it's against the Nats. After this, we're through forever though.
Thursday August 21, 2008
Mike Hampton ATL @ Pedro Martinez NYM
Mike Hampton partially proved me wrong. He made it to the mound and actually pitched. However, he pitched like crap so I got that part right. Hampton did manage to somehow collect two wins against the Giants despite his poor performances. His season ERA is now up to a plump 6.92 and we all know his days on the mound are limited. Pedro Martinez went seven innings for only the second time in his last 22 starts, shutting down the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's hard to get excited since he faced the Pirates in the previous week and failed to get the job done, and lost to the Padres before that. However, Pedro has allowed only five earned runs in his last five starts, and Mike Hampton and the Braves seem to be as good a time as any to risk starting the spiraling Dominican. Pedro is worthy of the spot start with an easy match up, but is still no where near worthy of full time ownership even in NL only leagues at this time.
Greg Smith OAK @ Ryan Rowland-Smith SEA
Ryan Rowland-Smith is probably going to be one of the better middle relievers in the MLB with more experience, but as a starting pitcher he just doesn't cut it. After he's thrown about 30-40 pitches he seems gassed and was absolutely humiliated by the Twins and Blue Jays which are hardly offensive power houses. Pitching for the lowly Mariners certainly doesn't help his cause and he must be ignored as a spot starter even in AL only leagues. Greg Smith also fails to pitch deep in to games and would probably manage to pick up more wins if he could. The Athletics are also far from contending this season and Greg Smith remains a low end AL only pitcher. His low strike out totals and excessive walks are damaging to any team in the long run but if you are desperate consider using him in this start, he managed to shut out the Mariners through six innings the last time they met.
Tim Redding WAS @ Jamie Moyer PHI
Tim Redding has lost six of his last seven starts and continues to prove that his hot start to the season was merely a fluke. Redding has seen success against the Phillies going 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA in three starts against them this season, but some of his early luck is reflected in those numbers. Jamie Moyer has been rather consistent losing only once since June 29th. Not bad for a 45 year old pitcher who is available in about half of ten team leagues. Moyer doesn't really do anything to provide a huge boost for your fantasy team, but he doesn't exactly hurt you in any one category either. Moyer makes a decent spot starter especially given a match up like this.
Josh Johnson FLA @ Matt Palmer SF
What a debut from the rookie Matt Palmer. He allowed seven hits, six earned runs while waking four and not even posting a single strike out earning himself an early third inning exit. Pack your bags kid, you're going back where you came from. I believe it's unlikely that Palmer will make a second start, but then again with the Giants being near the bottom of the totem pole in the NL West, they may not see the harm in giving him another shot. However, you should not even remotely consider it. Regardless of how deep your league is ignore Palmer, even his minor league numbers are disgusting. You didn't see nerves, you saw what truly is a horrible pitcher. Josh Johnson hasn't lost in seven starts so far this season but wasn't winning games either. He has now won three of his last four (his only three wins in 2008) and appears to have recovered from his Tommy John surgery. He looked outstanding against the Cubs fanning eight batters in six innings which oddly enough was the start he failed to win during his recent run. Regardless of whether Palmer starts for the Giants or some other scrub they dig up, Johnson is hot and a great option on Thursday.
Friday August 22, 2008
Paul Byrd BOS @ Shaun Marcum TOR
It's amazing what a little offense can do as Paul Byrd has now won four of his last five starts, but don't kid yourself. Byrd has simply gone from being a bad pitcher on a bad team, to being a bad pitcher on a good team. Oddly enough with his recent change in teams he will now face the Toronto Blue Jays for the third straight time in a row. Which really just means that the Jays should be even more tuned in to his stuff. Byrd may have a 1.98 ERA in his last five starts but that is not much of a reflection on what we have seen through this season and his career. I predict that Byrd implodes early and that the Jays put an end to his night in dramatic fashion within the first four innings. Shaun Marcum is 3-1 in nine starts with an ERA of exactly 3.00 against the Red Sox in his career and would have about seven wins if the Jays could ever string together some runs. Again I believe the Jays have seen enough of Byrd lately to have his number. I expect a quick offensive burst early in the game to give Marcum a nice cushion on his way to his fourth victory against the Sox.
Clayton Kershaw LA @ Kyle Kendrick PHI
Following a rough go after his call up Clayton Kershaw is finally looking like the highly anticipated prospect we expected. A boost in offense from the newly acquired Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake isn't hurting his cause either. The run support is still somewhat laking and his win/loss record is disappointing, but everything else is there right now including the strike outs and Kershaw could have a very nice second half run. Kyle Kendrick is still struggling failing to get out of the third inning in his last two starts. He falls behind in the count with almost every batter then tries to compensate with an placate fastball down the middle. Even with the ample run support he has received from the Phillies lately, Kendrick is still unable to capitalize. 2007 was fun to watch, but it was merely the luck of a pitcher with a sloppy delivery who was difficult to read. Kendrick will likely have a very short MLB career. He just stinks.
Edwin Jackson TB @ John Danks CHW
Edwin Jackson and John Danks have posted very similar numbers and results in their last three outings. Both have also had a very similar up and down roller coaster season. Danks is by far the better pitcher however, Jackson has won most of his games with tremendous run support and lost three more games than Danks this season due to atrocious pitching more than anything else. If you still find yourself on the fence between these two consider this. Each pitcher has faced the opposing team three times in their career. Edwin Jackson has never beaten the White Sox leaving him with a career 7.71 ERA against them, while John Danks has won every start against the Tampa Bay Rays with an average ERA of 2.50.
Fausto Carmona CLE @ Matt Harrison TEX
What the heck has gotten in to Matt Harrison? This after my recent rant about the pathetic Rangers rotation. Well don't get overly excited, it's still the worst rotation in the American league and Harrison's recent success is just smoke and mirrors. Although Harrison has posted victories in his last three starts, he barely beat the Yankees, still allowed 10 hits and six runs against Baltimore, and that wasn't the real Tampa Bay Rays he dominated last weekend. They had given all their studs the night off. Congratulations, on shutting out a line up consisting of Justin Ruggiano and Gabe Gross. Before this streak Harrison was dragging around a hefty 5.57 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. I was never to keen on Fausto Carmona last season, as I believed he was a mediocre, low strike out pitcher, riding out a relatively hot team. Well now the Indians aren't so hot and Carmona has contributed a 10.42 ERA in his four starts since returning from the DL. When I think of Fausto Carmona I am reminded of Gustavo Chacin. Another lack luster, low strike out pitcher who never quite recovered from his injury, only to be released and eventually disappear to a place where everyone soon forgets you existed (admit it you all forgot all about Chacin). Carmona is traveling down that same road. I can't recommend either one of these guys.
Saturday August 23, 2008
Odalis Perez WAS @ Ryan Dempster CHC
Odalis Perez is pitching much better than what we have come to expect from him losing only once in his last five starts. I have some reservations about how effective Ryan Dempster will be in the second half. Even more so I have some concerns about the mystery "personal matter" that has kept him away from his team for the past week and how it may affect his concentration on the mound. Dempster is more than likely not available in your league so really we are discussing whether or not Odalis Perez makes a fathomable spot starter in this match up, and I'm going to say yes. Perez has been very focused as of late which is not something we can say about Dempster. Perez also has a life time 3-1 record and 3.44 ERA against the Cubs. Don't expect a spectacular start or a ton of strike outs, but don't be surprised to see the Nats upset the Cubs here.
Jorge Campillo ATL @ Joel Pineiro STL
Regardless of Jorge Campillo's recent sucess and the fact that I have recommended him over the Giants and Barry Zito (really, who wouldn't I have recommended in that scenario) he is still sporting an ERA of 4.91 in his last three starts despite picking up a pair of wins. Joel Pineiro has performed better winning all three of his starts with a more reasonable combined ERA of 3.60. Neither is a great pitcher, but the Braves are a horrible team this season and it is unlikely that they will see much sucess against the Cardinals. Pineiro should provide more innings and less free passes to first than Campillo who may strike out more batters, but will probably not win this game. Take a shot on Pineiro for this one if you have few other options.
Jeff Karstens PIT @ Jeff Suppan MIL
With all the hype around Jeff Karstens right now it is easy to see this as a no brainer, but don't be too hasty. Yes, Karstens has been lights out since being dealt to the Pirates winning his first two starts with out allowing a single run, and allowing three runs in a great effort against the Reds. However, he is still a part of the rotation of a horrible team, and one that is currently mired in a four game losing streak. The Brewers on the other hand have been playing very well this season and remain on of the hottest teams in the MLB. Jeff Suppan, while not usually being worthy of consideration is riding a three game winning streak with an 2.05 ERA to go along with it. It's great to see Karstens enjoying sucess, and he may very will be the only Pirates pitcher worth starting at all, but not here. Neither one of these pitchers are capable of big strike out numbers so you might as well go with the one who is going to get the win, especially considering his recent hot streak.
Phil Hughes NYY @ Garrett Olson BAL
Let's cut to the chase, you've all heard my opinions on Phil Hughes and nothing has changed. However, even if you agree with me don't be so quick to jump on Garrett Olsen. Olsen was looking great there for awhile, but he has struggled in a big way as of late allowing 28 runs in his last 16 innings pitched over three starts. The Yankees may not be the Evil Empire any longer, but compared to the O's they will be a force to be reckoned with, and Olsen has been knocked around by the Yankees in the past. Pass on Olsen too until he gets his act together again.
Sunday August 24, 2008
Darrell Rasner NYY @ Jeremy Guthrie BAL
So we go from one bad Yankees pitcher to one that might even be worse if that's possible. How is Rasner still even in the rotation? A side from an ugly win against the Blue Jays, Rasner hasn't won since May 21st against the Orioles. He offers absolutely nothing in even the deepest of fantasy leagues, especially considering he has walked more batters than he has struck out in his last four starts. However, unlike Garrett Olsen, Jeremy Guthrie continues to be the unexpected Ace of the O's rotation. He is simply unstoppable as he unceasingly mows down batter after batter and rakes in wins. He is now 6-1 in his last eight starts and it is difficult to imagine what kind of numbers he would be capable of posting if he pitched for a contending team. Guthrie should not be available in any league, but he is out there in many of them, either simply for being an Oriole or because people just aren't paying attention. Go take a look, and if you are lucky enough to find him, do what you have to do to make a permanent roster spot for him.
Randy Wolf HOU @ Oliver Perez NYM
Randy Wolf may appear to be a better pitcher with the Houston Astros than he was with the Padres, but really he looks about the same out there. He just gets run support now which is enough to boost his fantasy value. With is career 11-5 record and 3.25 ERA against the Mets, it's reasonable to expect the same sort of success since most of those starts occurred when he was in Phillie. I say the same thing every week. Oliver Perez should never be relied on outside of desperation. He is just far too inconsistent, and every time he appears to be on a hot streak and safe to start, that's when he gets you. Give Randy Wolf a shot, he's even been posting some nice strike out numbers as of late.
Kenny Rogers DET @ Luke Hochevar KC
Both Kenny Rogers and Luke Hochevar have lost their last four decisions in a big way. Even with the Detroit Tigers huge offense Kenny Rogers still can't manage to get the job done as his ERA continues to soar. You may be thinking, surely The Gambler can get one past the lowly Royals. Think about how long it's been since the Royals were any good. In 20 years on an major league mound, Kenny Rogers has a pathetic record of 21-18 against them in 58 carrer starts. There are no usable options here. Move along.
Josh Banks SD @ Kevin Correia SF
Well it would appear I get to recommend Kevin Correia after all. Reasons for ignoring Josh Banks should be painfully obvious. Although Correia has only one win in his last four starts he has actually pitched very well. However, being a Giants pitcher doesn't appear to be much fun. I don't claim that Correia is a good pitcher, but he has shown vast improvement in August and may be worthy of NL only ownership if the trend continues. Even now I recommend him only in the deepest of fantasy leagues, but against Banks and the Padres he should coast to victory.
Highlight Of The Week
Matt LaPorta, OF Cleveland Indians
Matt LaPorta came over to the Cleveland Indians as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal, immediatly becoming the Tribes top prospect. LaPorta is currently in Beijing, as a part of Team USA's Olympic team and was recently a huge factor in their 7-0 victory over the Netherlands on Thursday. Since the Indians are currently relying on Shin-Soo Choo, and I might be the only one who recognizes Choo's value as a young Lyle Overbay type hitter and a doubles machine, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tribe allowed him to forgo the minor leagues all together and stake his claim in right field by September. It's not so far fetched, John Olerud, Al Kaline and Dave Winfield just to name a few all skipped the minor leagues and went on to have great MLB careers. LaPorta may have more potential and baseball ability than any of them. Young prospects like this are easily over-hyped leaving some of us disappointed when they don't immediatly produce huge numbers once called up. However, if there is anyone capable of making a huge impact at such a young age with so little professional experience, it would be Laporta. He is one of few two time Southeastern Conference Players of the Year, a two time Southern League Player of the Week, and on his way to being the USA Olympic teams MVP. LaPorta is a huge power threat, with great agility. Keep an eye on the situation and be ready to pounce at the first suggestion that he may be called up. He is also a must own in all long term leagues. |
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