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Field of Streams :: 8/03/08
by Tenacious D-Store
Published: August 3, 2008, 9:09 pm
Welcome back for another edition of Tenacious D-Store's Field Of Streams. Each week, I will focus on some of the better pickups who should be available in the majority of leagues for each day of the week as well as some that should be avoided. Since some people also choose to stream an outfield or utility spot with a hot bat each week, I will also include a weekly highlight on a hitter who may fly under your radar. Let's get started.
NOTE: All starts are probable. I can not be held responsible for last minute managerial decisions, injuries, rain-outs, alien abductions, arrests etc.
Monday August 4, 2008
Manny Parra MIL @ Bronson Arroyo CIN
Manny Parra suffered his first loss since May 3rd, and ironically enough it came at the hands of the same opposing team, The Houston Astros. As I begin my work on this weeks column. Parra's start against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster is just getting under way. Expect similar performances from both pitchers and don't be turned off from Parra if he suffers another loss. The Reds and Bronson Arroyo are as good an opportunity as any for the hard throwing Parra. It's easy to think Bronson Arroyo is worth a shot as he is coming of a recent six game winning streak. However, upon closer examination you may change your opinion as those were starts that required almost no effort from Arroyo himself. The Indians and Aaron Laffey on June 29th. The Indians were struggling and Laffey was already close to wearing out his welcome in the rotation. Laffey allowed five runs in the fifth inning alone and the Indians bullpen allowed four more. Reds win. July 4th against the Nationals and Jason Bergmann, Arroyo pitches six shutout innings against the worst team in the MLB with four of their top players injured and out of the line up. Who cares? July 10th, Arroyo allows seven hits and five earned runs in five innings against the Cubs. However, Ted Lilly manages to do that in 2.2 innings ending his night. The Cubs bull pen would allow eight more runs to score. The game ends with a ridiculous 12-7 score and Arroyo picks up a win despite being horrendous. On July 18th Arroyo manages to beat the Mets again while opposing pitcher John Maine is mired in a horrible cold streak. Arroyo actually pitches eight solid innings and we'll leave him alone for this start. Last but not least, the Padres on July 23rd. Arroyo would not have gotten this win if not for the fact that he pitched just deep enough in the game to take advantage of Padres relief Pitcher Joe Thatcher, who loaded the bases then served up a cream puff to Adam Dunn permitting him to unload them. So out of a six win streak, we have one game that Arroyo didn't look like crap out there. If you aren't convinced yet, then you go ahead and start Arroyo. Myself and the rest of the fantasy baseball world will go with Manny Parra.
Clay Buchholz BOS @ Gil Meche KC
Clay Bucholz has returned to the Red Sox line up and looks even worse then he did when he left, going winless in all four starts and picking up a loss in three of them. In the 15 innings he has pitched since his return he has allowed 21 hits, 12 earned runs and 12 walks. Absolutely unacceptable for the rotation of what is arguably the best team in the American League. It won't be much longer before he finds himself back with AAA Pawtucket. Gil Meche on the other hand is 6-1 in his last 10 starts and has claimed impressive wins in his last three. The Royals may not even be close to contending this season but if they had five Gil Meche's in the rotation it would be a much different story. Buchhloz isn't even in the same league as Meche, and despite the offensive differences between these teams Meche is pretty much a no-brainer. As a side note Meche has done quite well against the Red Sox in the past, sporting a 4-2 record and 3.69 ERA against them in his career.
Tim Redding WAS @ Aaron Cook COL
Finally, we get another solid start from Tim Redding, but I say too little too late. Redding came out like gang busters at the bigging of the season, blowing a nasty fastball past just about anyone who stepped up to the plate. However, it only lasted about a month, and that heater began to cool off. Maybe fatigue set in or maybe it was just the reality that he has never been a particularly good pitcher. It's going to take a lot more than a complete game shut out against the San Fransisco Giants before I recommend him again. And almost like clockwork I just checked the score of his current outing against the Phillies to see that they just sent him packing after four innings and seven earned runs. Aaron Cook continues to pitch like the Ace of the Colorado Rockies in place of Jeff Francis who simply wasn't cutting it even before the injury. Cook is a must start in any league but remains available in about 10% of ten team leagues. Go take a look.
Jair Jurrjens ATL @ Matt Cain SF
Both Jair Jurrjens and Matt Cain have been excellent in their last three starts, Cain has managed to post the better ERA in that period but lost two of three games for no other reason than he pitches for the Giants. Jurrjens also picked up a tough loss because as of right now, the Braves are looking just as bad as the Giants. These guys are both great pitchers, on bad teams so you have to assume that the result will be a low scoring game. Start whichever you can find find, and don't be afraid to start them both as they go toe to toe. Both are capable of posting solid strike out numbers as well as low ERA and WHIP for this match up.
Tuesday August 5, 2008
Dave Bush MIL @ Edinson Volquez CIN
Welcome to Bizarro World, where David Bush is a better pitcher than Edinson Volquez. Then again, as of late even George W. Bush would be a better option than Edinson Volquez. Volquez is coming off a four inning start where he throw an astonishing 99 pitches (remember this is in four innings) and only 59 of those pitches were strikes. It's just more of the same over and over again. Volquez has an impressive 2.77 season ERA but pitches wildly, and throws ridiculous amounts of pitches per inning. That is a sign of needing some more work in AAA. Volquez has all the potential in the world to become the next inning eating strike out king, but with out proper guidance he will become Homer Bailey the second. I can't recommend a pitcher who is usually as hittable as David Bush is in a small ballpark with guys like Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey being knocking the cover off the ball. Despite Volquez's issues he is still the better pitcher, but he won't win when he can't get out of the fourth before he is exhausted. He needs to get his act together and is a reluctant recommendation.
Fausto Carmona CLE @ Edwin Jackson TB
Upon breaking news that Fausto Carmona would be rejoining the Tribes rotation after a lengthy DL stint, his ownership shoots up be about 50%. In his first outing back he pitches like crap and his ownership drops almost 30%. That makes me laugh. Is he not permitted to be rusty after having three months off? Carmona is over-hyped after his 2007 season anyway. He has walked almost twice as many batters as he has struck out this season which is reason enough to stay away. The Indians dismal showing this season certainly won't help his cause either. So we have a pitcher who won't give you K's, walks far too many batters, and is on a team that probably won't win even if he pitches well. That 30% who dropped him were clearly asking themselves just what the hell they were thinking in the first place. Carmona is for AL only leagues. Edwin Jackson's strike out to walk ration is just as bad, and his endurance stinks. Jackson has benefited from hot Tampa bats and nothing more. Will someone throw this moron in the bullpen and call up David price already. Edwin Jackson is for NO leagues.
Sean Gallagher OAK @ Scott Richmond TOR
I'll make this one short and sweet. I live near Toronto and I'm a big Jays fan. I don't know who the hell Scott Richmond is. So much for the Jays having the best rotation in the MLB as was the consensus at the start of the season. Sean Gallagher has pitched better for the A's so far than he ever did with Cubs. He's been a big two start add for my teams in leagues with weekly line ups this week. This should be a great opportunity for him to shine.
Chad Billingsley LA @ Chris Carpenter STL
Chad Billingsley is a no brainer at this point. I went on in length during my pre-season column about how phenomenal this strike out specialist would be this season. Some of you agreed and the rest of you were wrong and should have known better than to doubt me. I made no comments as to Chris Carpenter's return in last weeks column, mostly because I wanted to wait and see. Six innings was more than I expected. However, there is no need to get excited over what was still a relatively short outing against a team that not even a contender. Tommy John surgery usually takes about two years to recover from, and no one has ever... EVER returned from it mid season and performed even moderately well. For crying out loud, quit banking on the names of broken down has-beens and focus on some of the young talent out there blowing away batters and being ignored just because their names aren't in the record books. I guarantee Carpenter will not be in the rotation by September.
Wednesday August 6, 2008
Jeff Suppan MIL @ Aaron Harang CIN
With the Brewers mired in a six game losing streak to date, Jeff Suppan has had his own troubles. In his last three starts, Suppan has an earned run average of almost 10.00. July has not been kind to Suppan but it's not like he's ever been a pitcher to garner any consideration in most fantasy leagues anyway. He certainly shouldn't be considered when he visits the hitter friendly Great Canadian Ball Park. Aaron Harang is expected to return from the 15 day DL on Wednesday. Since I don't believe he ever really had a forearm injury in the first place, I don't expect it to have much of an impact in his return to the mound. I believe Harang was just given time of to work on the things that haven't been working, and the DL was just to spare him the embarrassment. Always insist on seeing something before you buy in to it. I'll say it again, when Harang does something notable, I will consider recommending him. Until then I will continue to insist he is NL only waiver trash.
Brandon Backe HOU @ Jason Marquis CHC
Although there are pitchers with far worse numbers, I have always believed that Jason Marquis is among the worst pitchers in the MLB. The double digit season wins he posted with the Cardinals were more of a result of an incredible offense than skilled pitching. Marquis is now winless in his last five starts and has allowed five or more runs in three of them. I cannot fathom any situation where I would recommend spot starting Marquis. I really enjoyed watching Brandon Backe as a middle reliever, but his inability to pitch deep in to games is proof that he still belongs in the bull pen and not the rotation. However, he is pitching well even if he rarely makes it past the fifth, and his strike outs are an asset to owners in NL only or deeper leagues. This isn't a bad situation to give Backe a shot especial since he has only a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts, even though he allowed four runs against the Cubs in a recent loss.
Anibal Sanchez FLA @ Kyle Kendrick PHI
Anibal Sanchez is back from the 60 day DL and will be making his first start in the band box Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Sanchez is a huge sleeper in the final months of the season and showed little rust going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five rehab starts. Sanchez has loads of potential after his 2006 season where he went 10-3 with 2.83 ERA and a complete game no hitter against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Normally I would insist that you use patience before starting him to see of he performs, but since Sanchez did so well in his rehabs starts and faces Kyle Kendrick, I say go for it.
Tim Wakefield BOS @ Luke Hochevar KC
Tim Wakefield is coming of a nightmare outing and possibly his worst start of the season against the Yankees. The Yankees have always had Wakefield's number and it really came as no surprise. Wakefield has fared much better against the Royals in his career, which should also come as little surprise. After all we're talking about the Royals. You can never expect too much from the knuckle baller, but when the match up is right he can provide seven or eight good innings and a handful of strike outs. This is one of those match ups. Luke Hochevar is an average pitcher on a horrible team, that combination is enough to make him a horrible pitcher by fantasy standards. Ignore Hochevar, and give Wakefield the green light in this one.
Thursday August 7th, 2008
Clayton Kershaw LA @ Kyle Lohse STL
Clayton Kershaw is coming of his first major league win and already his ownership is on the rise. Let's get real here, first of all it was a win against the Nationals. Secondly, his start previous to that was a four inning horror show where he allowed ten hits, five runs and three walks against the Rockies. Kershaw simply does not have the star potential he was projected to have. Things got a little rocky for Kyle Lohse against the Mets, but Lohse has been pitching like a man possessed, and he very well could be because I don't ever remember seeing Lohse pitch like he has this season. Why is he still available in so many leagues? Go take a look, and if your are lucky enough to find him, don't even thinking about tossing him back. He's not a condom, he's safe to use more than once.
Dana Eveland OAK @ A.J. Burnett TOR
I have been extremely high on Dana Eveland since the moment I heard he'd be joining the A's rotation. In fact I think I have recommended him every week that he has been featured. However, not this time. Even with the Jays being as putrid a team as they are, A.J. Burnett is pitching like the Cy Young winner he will unfortunately never be. He is on fire and posting insane strike out numbers. Eveland has lost two of his last three starts and has won only two of his last seven. Oakland isn't much better than the Jays offensively, so let Eveland sit this one out.
Jason Bergmann WAS @ Valerio De Los Santos COL
Why am I recommending Valerio De Los Santos? Because, Jason Bergmann posted an ERA of 12.27 the last time he faced the Rockies and there isn't much else to talk about with a typically reduced MLB Thursday schedule. It might be worth a shot in deeper leagues if De Los Santos drinks some Red Bull or something. He's not a starter, and there just isn't enough gas in the tank for him to throw more than maybe 70 pitches max.
Zach Miner DET @ Javier Vazquez CHW
Zach Miner certainly has gotten my attention since I tend to play in a lot of deeper leagues. I'm not getting overly excited yet but I will say that I am partially responsible for his sudden 3% increase in ownership since his call up. Miner beat the Royals in six shut out innings in his first start. Then performed admirably shuting down the White Sox and displaying some great strike out potential. If he did it once, he can do it again. Javier Vazquez has been allowing so many hits that he might as well just set up a tee for the hitters and go for lunch. He's been horribly inconsistent, or consistently horrible depending on whether you are a glass is half empty or half full type of guy. Give Miner a shot, he has already been pitching better than Vazquez and Detroit should out play the White Sox even on their worst day.
Friday August 8,2008
Dallas Braden OAK @ Kenny Rogers DET
Dallas Braden was called upon in lieu of Gio Gonzalez due to the fact that he was dominating batters in AAA. Braden knows he isn't supposed to be there and it wasn't his time, he must continue to perform the same way at the major league level or Gonzalez will be taking over that #5 rotation spot after all. However, Braden seems to work just as well under pressure. He allowed only a single run through five innings against one of the hottest teams in baseball the Tampa Bay Rays, and actually pitched well against the Royals over all, despite giving up two run shots to both Jose Guillen and Alex Gordon. He did strike out seven in only 6.2 innings though. Kenny Rogers has managed to lower his ERA by two points in the past couple of months but I would hardly say that he has been pitching well with the amount of hits he gives up in each start. He also posts very poor strike out numbers. Betting on the Gambler is usually a mistake, even a win could come with a side order of ugly. Stick with Braden.
Luis Mendoza TEX @ Jeremy Guthrie BAL
Eighteen hits and eleven runs in his last nine innings of work, no thank you Luis Mendoza. I don't care how hot the Rangers bats are, I want no part of that. I'd much rather go with Jeremy Guthrie who has posted only a single loss in his last ten starts despite pitching for the Baltimore Orioles. Guthrie is a serviceable back end starter for most mixed leagues and quite possibly a future stud for keeper and dynasty leagues. As most young pitcher do, he has struggled at times with consistency, so you don't necessarily want to start him in every situation. However, Mendoza is bad enough that I will still give Guthrie the nod even against the Rangers.
Jorge Campillo ATL @ Doug Davis ARI
Jorge Campillo is now 2-0 in his last three start (discounting a second inning rain out on July 27th) with a 1.15 ERA. Campillo has also never been one to give out many free passes to first, keeping his season WHIP at a very respectable 1.06. That's fairly impressive considering how disappointing the Braves have been this season. In fact you almost have to place most of the blame with the Braves for his lack luster season since Campillo's season ERA is only 2.76. Campillo routinely pitches in to the seventh inning, yet the Braves just can't do enough to allow him to collect as many wins as he deserves. The Diamondback's aren't performing much better this season and regardless of Doug Davis brilliant outing against the Padres he still isn't a good fantasy pitcher. Campillo remains a decent roto option since wins are only one category, but he is of little use to anyone in point based leagues.
Hiroki Kuroda LA @ Barry Zito SF
I warned you last week that bad is not always better than worse. However, Hiroki Kuroda does have the odd brilliant start, and now he has the bat of Mad Manny Ramirez in the line up to help him out. I have to admit that Manny is the sole reason behind suggesting Kuroda in this high risk start. The Dodgers were very close to running away with their division, and then just fell apart or stopped trying or something. Perhaps the addition of Manny's much needed big bat will provide the Dodgers with the enthusiasm they seem to be lacking.
Saturday August 9, 2008
Francisco Liriano MIN @ Zack Greinke KC
I really wanted to wait until after Francisco Liriano's August 3rd start in Cleveland before reviewing this match up, but I do have a deadline to meet so that is a luxury I will have to do without. Since he is facing Matt Ginter I will predict a six inning win with two earned runs and five strike outs. Liriano has been dominating in the minors as he and his fantasy owners have waited impatiently for what we all knew was coming. As I predicted in the All Star break edition, veteran Livan Hernandez was dishonorably discharged from the Twins 40 man roster and released. Since Liriano has been working so hard to get back on track, I don't expect to see any rust. However, if he thinks he can dominate at the major league level as easily as he did in AAA, he is in for a reality check. Liriano will make a few mistakes but should be a great fantasy pitcher from here on out. If you haven't grabbed him yet, you better cross your fingers and get on it. His ownership has already climbed to 85% in 10 team leagues. Zack Greinke had some pretty horrendous outings before bouncing back against the Oakland A's. He had a pretty tough schedule in those starts though. This one likely won't be any easier for him or the Royals, so keep him benched this weekend.
Vicente Padilla TEX @ Daniel Cabrera BAL
In the politically inclined world of Major League baseball, you simply can't attempt to behead the leagues top revenue grossing player with a fastball, and expect to get away with it. Especially, if you yourself are a sub par pitcher who has never lived up to your own potential. Daniel Cabrera, what the hell were you thinking? The fact that 10,000 pissed off Yankees fans didn't rush the field and beat you to death is in and of itself a miracle. The fact that Edwar Ramirez receives a three game suspension for throwing at Kevin Millar, and Cabrera gets six games for doing the same thing except to A-Rod, proves my point. Cabrera is appealing his suspension and therefore should resume his scheduled start against Texas on Saturday. Cabrera has beaten the Rangers only once in his career with a combined 6.33 ERA against them. Cabrera hasn't seen a Rangers lineup like this in his five year career so don't expect those numbers to improve. Vicente Padilla is 5-2 in his last eight starts and is looking like a viable mixed league pitcher. Joba and the Yankees are going to give him some trouble before he gets to this start, but be confident in the Rangers bats and Padilla's hot streak.
Jason M. Johnson LA @ Kevin Correia SF
Jason Johnson isn't anyone I ever thought I'd see in a major league rotation again, especially after opting to play in Japan last season when not a single team would return his agents calls. Johnson is only a stop gag option for the Dodgers. if they don't hold him to much value, there is no reason why you should. He did pitch six solid but unspectacular innings against the Giants in his first start, and did reasonably well in a couple of long relief appearances before that. In a total of 13 innings he has only allowed two earned runs and two walks. However, the Dodgers have little use for another long reliever Chan Ho Park and Hong-Chih Kuo are doing just fine in that role. So you have to wonder where that really leaves Jason Johnson when Brad Penny returns. My guess is back in the free agent pool with nobody returning his calls. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Giants will be better prepared this time around and that Johnson will not have the same success. With 28 hits and 14 earned runs in his last 13 innings over three starts, I'm not about to recommend Kevin Correia either.
Matt Garza TB @ Miguel Batista SEA
Matt Garza is hot again, and Miguel Batista never was. There is very little need for further explanation here.
Sunday August 10, 2008
Sean Gallagher OAK @ Nate Robertson DET
Sean Gallagher looked amazing in his first start with the A's laying a path of destruction through the MLB leading Angels line up. His ownership shot up by 25% as owners eagerly awaited a repeat performance. He pitched well against the Yankees for the no decision while striking out seven batters in five innings. We all know you can't win them all, and with another solid outing his ownership climbed a little higher. Then things got ugly against the Rangers and the Royals, as he posted two more, far less impressive no decisions. Gallagher has yet to lose with the Athletics and the strike out numbers are great, but you have to wonder how consistent he will be throughout the season, and he will ever be able to pitch deep in to games on a regular basis. My opinions on Nate Robertson should be common knowledge by now, so I'll go with Gallagher one more time. I've added him to all all my AL only leagues.
Wandy Rodriguez HOU @ Edinson Volquez CIN
It has finally happened. Wandy Rodriguez has actually posted back to back away game wins. I'm a little concerned that the Nationals actually provided him with more problems than the Brewers, but lets not split hairs. In between he held his own at home against the Cubs for another win, but took a beating back on the road against the Reds not even getting past the fourth inning. Wandy's biggest problem is that he allows too many hits. Whether or not he manages to keep them from scoring is usually a matter of luck, and he's been lucky lately. I am a big Wandy Rodriguez fan, and I have patiently waited for him to pull it together. I'm just not seeing any real progression. A stud pitcher does not allow eight or nine hits in six inning on a consistent basis. The strike outs are nice, but I am beginning to think Wandy is a career #4 pitcher at best. Edinson Volquez pitched beautifully in Houston, and will now try to duplicate his success against the Astro's on his own turf. Volquez appears to be back on track after a mid-season stumble, and based on what the Reds did to Wandy Rodriguez last week at home, and given his record in away games, my money is on Volquez here.
Matt Harrison TEX @ Dennis Sarfate BAL
I am confused and disappointed as to why the Texas Rangers made no attempt to procure a veteran starting pitcher before the trade deadline. In not doing so they have essentially thrown away any chance of contending for a playoff spots this season. What was arguably the worst starting rotation in all of baseball at the beginning of the season, is looking even more grim now in the second half. Despite a potent offense I find myself unable to recommend any of these young low end prospects even against a team like the Orioles. Neither Matt Harrison nor Dennis Sarfate appear to have any place in a major league rotation at this time, Therefore, both should be ignored.
Chris R. Young SD @ Jeff Francis COL
Chris Young and Jeff Francis are both returning from the DL and have had a rather disappointing season thus far in 2008. Young, however showed no lasting effects after virtually having his face crushed by a line drive, and as far as pitching stats alone, probably has the greater chance of rebounding regardless of a less effective offense. Nothing has gone right for Francis this season who doesn't have a particularly favorable record against the Padres anyway, going 5-10 with a 5.42 ERA against them throughout his career. Fantasy owners have been quicker to pick up Jeff Francis, but I believe they have made the wrong choice. Go with Chris Young here, and hang on to him for his next few starts and see how he performs.
Highlight Of The Week
Jeff Baker - Colorado Rockies (1B,2B,RF)
With most of the Rockies line up playing extremely well at the moment, it is easy to miss the solid play Jeff Baker has been displaying. He consistently gets on base and has raised his batting average from .267 to .302 in the past week alone. With the ability to play just about any position Baker's position eligibility is an asset in and of itself, especially at second base. He has above average power and a knack for displaying the power swing in key situations, and hitting the line drives when he simply needs to get on base or get a runner in from scoring position. The fact that he doesn't swing for the fences in every at bat is a sign of true maturity as a ball player. Baker has found most of his playing time in a replacement role for injured players. It is inevitable that Baker will end up replacing Clint Barmes on a permanent basis this season. His ownership in fantasy leagues is just about nil, when he is actually worthy of ownership in leagues with as few as 10 teams.
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