The All-Star break is upon us, and what is practically a whole new season is about to begin. Several players are known to either improve or fall apart in the second half of the season, and there are plenty of young rookie players that many are wondering what to expect from in the second half. Not to mention all of the unexpected studs and duds we have seen thus far in 2008. This week we will break away from the structure of business as usual and put a handful of these players under the microscope.

Hank Blalock - Hank Blalock only stepped up to the plate 87 times this season before a recurring wrist injury sent him to the disabled list. He is expected to return after the all star break and many expect him to do it with a bang. I'm assuming this is the many people who live in Texas and/or are Rangers fans. Blaklock had shown a drastic reduction in power since 2004 when he exceeded 30 homers. Now after back to back injury plagued seasons, I do not understand how he could be expected to come back and hit 20 homers in the second half and also expect not to re-injure his wrist in the process. Blalock will have to reinvent himself not as a power hitter but as a gap hitter and give that wrist a bit of a break.
Hank Blalock's second half prognosis: Grim

Michael Bourn - One of the most anticipated base burning rookies this season was the Astro's Michael Bourn. Since I myself tend to draft power heavy, I too took Bourn in the later rounds to provide some speed. This was usually followed by draft chat room moans and groans by league mates who regretted the decision of letting him drop one more round. After posting a minor league batting average of .278 with 45 stolen bases in only 118 at bats in 2006, and showing similar promise in a brief 2007 call up, many were sure they were getting the next Juan Pierre or Jose Reyes as late as the final two rounds of their drafts. Michael Bourn is fast, there is no denying that, he already has over 30 stolen bases at this point of the season. Which is really impressive when you consider how infrequently he actually gets on base. After failing to get on base in nearly 80% of his at bats, Bourne has so many owners frustrated that they have tossed him and his super human speed right back in the waiver pools. The stolen bases simply are not worth it when he is so destructive to your other offensive scoring categories. To date he has shown no signs that he is improving his presence at the plate.
Odds of Micheal Bourn raising his BA to a respectable level in the second half: Low

Milton Bradley - Milton Bradley has gone from being 28% owned to open the season, to 97% ownership in fantasy leagues. At the All-Star Break, Bradley has already exceeding his numbers from any previous season. Those who own him are ecstatic because they likely got him as a free agent, but at the same time his history of injury has us wondering how much longer we will get to enjoy this. Usually, by this point in the season Bradley has already had a lengthy DL stint. Not only have we not seen a significant injury, we have seen his best power numbers and batting average of his entire career as part of a potent Rangers offense.
Odds that Milton Bradley continues to tear it up: High
Odds that Milton Bradley avoids tearing himself up: Moderate

Billy Butler - Billy Butler has yet to live up to his potential and just doesn't seem have what it takes to be the super slugging all star at the major league level that the Royals need him to be, and needed Ryan Shealy to be before that. Even now, Butler has received a call up out of sheer desperation with Shealy and Russ Gload on the DL, it had nothing to do with how well Butler was performing in AAA because he's never performed poorly at that level. I'm just not convinced Butler will be anything more than a Phil Nevin type player in the big leagues and he has done nothing so far to discount that claim.
Odds that Billy Butler proves me wrong in the second half: Low

Miguel Cabrera - Miguel Cabrera had been a disappointment to his owners throughout most of the season. Although he maintained a decent batting average, the lack of pop from a late first round pick left many of his fantasy owners with a bitter taste in their mouth. However, through the darkness has come a beam of light. Miggy has doubled his home run totals by smacking seven home runs in the past 25 games while batting .340 during the same span. I have heard the excuse that Comerica Park just isn't a good place for Cabrera to be playing, and I fail to see any logic in that especially with it being a shallower park that he played in with Florida and the protection of better hitters surrounding him in the line up. Cabrera has been troubled by a sore hip throughout the season with is a more likely reason for his lack luster start. We enter the second half looking at the Miguel Cabrera we all thought we had drafted. Better late than never.
Odds of a more Miggy-like second half: High

Ryan Dempster - Ryan Dempster is an all-star, who would have thought we'd ever see the day. Not only has Dempster set a Cubs record this season for winning 10 straight decisions at home, his ERA and WHIP are so uncharacteristically low compared to what we have come to expect from him that it is very tough to believe he won't implode in the second half. However, even if Dempster ends up somewhere in the middle of where he was and where he is, we certainly can't be disappointed. If you compare Dempster's career stats from the first half and second half, there is a nasty trend of a downward spiral after the all-star break. I think it is unrealistic to think Dempster is truely on pace for a 20 win season. I personally would be looking to trade Dempster away at this point.
Odds that Ryan Depster keeps it up: Low-Moderate

Jeff Francoeur - Jeff Francoeur has been such a huge disappointment this season not only to your fantasy team but to the Atlanta Braves themselves. So much so, that he was actually demoted all the way down to AA class reportedly at his own request in order to work on his swing and plate presence with a familiar mentor, Phillip Wellman (most famous for the most entertaining manager tantrum ever and the imaginative rosin bag grenade), However, the demotion lasted only a few days which leads me to ask the question "What was the point"? He hasn't looked any sharper at the plate since his return and his .230 batting average and measly eight home runs has fantasy owners looking for whatever they can get for him, and some owners seeking a bargain hoping for improvement in the second half. As of right now Frenchy is looking like an NL only outfielder.
Odds of Jeff Francoeur coming out of the coma: Very Low

Jason Giambi - Jason Giambi's resurgence of power this season has some people questioning if he is continuing to use steroids. In my personal opinion, this allegation is extremely unlikely. Giambi was man enough to come clean and admit his errors, even calling his decision to violate MLB banned substance policies "stupid". He has to know that he is under the microscope after escaping with a mere slap on the wrist. Giambi is a terrific slugger who is capable of hitting 40 home runs in a season even without the use of performance enhancing substances. I don't think any athlete in any professional sport can honestly say that they have not considered the use of a performance enhancer, even if just for a brief moment. As fans we are unforgiving of a players disappointing season, we expect them to put up bigger and better numbers with every passing year and view them as a failure if they do not meet those expectations. With players also viewing themselves and their careers in a similar light, the lure of readily available steroids is like putting a bowl of candy in front of a child and demanding that they not eat any. Giambi made a mistake, he admitted his mistake and he deserves to be forgiven and credited for his success thereafter. Giambi is clean, I am as sure of that as I can be. As long as he can stay healthy he should be able to continue at his current pace, if not excel in the second half.
Odds of Jason Giambi maintaining or exceeding his current pace in the second half assuming he stays healthy: Very High

Aaron Harang
Odds that Aaron Harrang is even worth the time to write a segment on: Null

Chase Headley - Suddenly Chase Headley's ownership is plummeting just as fast as it rose after word of his call up. He's only played 20 games and still managed to hit five homers, with 11 RBI's and is hitting for a less than impressive average thus far. As for Headley's lack luster RBI totals, Headley can not help the fact that he is a Padre surrounded by an incompetent hitting staff who can't get on base in front of him. I certainly have no complaints about his home run totals. How many homers has Prince Fielder hit in his last 20 games? Headley deserves to be given some adjustment time to get his batting average up. He can't be expected to hit a five run homer in every at bat. Chase Headley has done a fine job thus far. You got him for free, stop whining.
Odds that Chase Headley is a bust: Very Very Low

Aubrey Huff - Aubrey Huff hadn't been anything special for most of the season, but for those who are surprised by his recent hot streak better wake up and realize what is happening. Huff has always been a big time second half monster who is best picked up about a week before the all star break. Huff has gotten an early start so hopefully you aren't too late if you need help at 1st, 3rd, Utility or in some leagues Huff may still have outfield eligibility. Huff has added about twenty points to his batting average in recent weeks, and the power stroke will come soon as well, I guarantee it.
Odds of studly second half from Aubrey Huff: Very High

Randy Johnson - OMG! Let's all list Randy Johnson as being on a hot streak, just because he struck out ten batters for the win against the San Diego Padres. Let's all just forget the fact that the Padres are playing horrible baseball right now, and that Randy Johnson has lost six consecutive outings previous to this one which included being completely destroyed by both the Pirates and the Royals during that losing streak. Let's all go blindly pick up The Big Unit, a man who is a disgrace to his own legacy, because of one freaking start shall we. Randy is five wins away from breaking Nolan Ryan's record. I predict he will actually manage that feat by mid-2012 at his current pace with his future injuries taken in to consideration. Then maybe he will finally retire.
Odds of Randy Johnson being anything but waiver trash: Very Low

Kyle Kendrick - Speaking of huge second halves of the season. Remember how Kyle Kendrick exploded on to the scene in mid-2007 to win ten games. Many drafted Kendrick as a late round sleeper this season only to be sickened by what they actually got. Kendrick had none of the precision breaking pitches we had previously seen. His stuff seemed sloppy and telegraphed and as a result, his offerings were crushed by hitters. However, Kendrick has made quality starts in five of his last six outings, picking up four wins during that streak. Could Kendrick be repeating his second half trend? It certainly doesn't hurt too pick him up in NL only or deeper leagues and find out. Kendrick doesn't offer much in the strike out department, nor does he have an exciting fastball. Neither did a young Tom Glavine which is who Kendrick began to remind me of last season.
Odds of a repeat strong second half from Kyle Kendrick: Moderate - High

Cliff Lee - Currently tied for second in American League wins, Cliff Lee has been this seasons biggest surprise especially with his extremely low ERA and WHIP not to mention his career high strikeouts to date. Since Lee's first hot week baseball fans everywhere have been expecting him to falter with every passing start, but he has maintained his status as a must start pitcher in fantasy play and an ace of the Indians pitching staff after being seen as a number four starter at best, throughout his seven year MLB career. Without even the slightest sign of weakness so far this season, there is no reason to expect anything different in the second half.
Odds that Cliff Lee maintains his current pace: Very High

Francisco Liriano - Francisco Liriano missed the entire 2007 season with an injury, and attempted a rather unsuccessful comeback early this season. After his demotion to AAA Liriano continued to struggle, and many began to wonder if Tommy John surgery had ended his career before it ever really started. However, Liriano has now won six straight decisions for the AAA Red Wings and is beginning to look like the stud we all envisioned him to be. There's a new problem though, the Twins claim they have no room for him. No room? Are you kidding me? This is a team that considers Livan Hernandez their Ace. Does Livan Hernandez know that an earned run doesn't mean that he has accomplished something? Glen Perkins is pitching over his head as well, and has little talent. The Twins are just being cautious. There will suddenly be room not long after the all-star break.
Odds that Francisco Liriano gets called up in the second half: Very High
Odds that Francisco Liriano is even remotely effective at the major league level: Moderate - High

Dustin McGowan - Dustin McGowan hasn't pitched well thus far in 2008, and he had a rather disappoint first half to 2007 as well. He turned it around becoming the Jays best pitcher in the second half last season, and I was prepared to predict the same type of turn around this year. Then his shoulder exploded. The Jays are notorious liars when it comes to disclosing injuries. So for JP Ricciardi to say in a public interview, that "things are not looking good" when discussing McGowan, I don't think we'll see him for the rest of the season.
Odds of a strong second half from Dustin McGowan: Very Very Low

Hunter Pence - Don't get excited by Hunter Pence's recent home run against the Washington Nationals, it had a little help from near hurricane force winds. Pence has struggled since his explosive rookie season. It's the ol' sophomore slump and probably nothing more. I don't think his .322 BA from last season is any more of a reflection than the .250 BA we are seeing now. I believe the true Hunter Pence will settle right in the middle to become a .280 hitter capable of spanking 25 long balls a season, but finding his gap power to become an RBI hero. Most of that will most likely come in 2009, although I expect a tad more consistency in the second half, it will hardly be substantial enough to sell the farm in an attempt to get him via trade.
Odds of seeing the 2007 version of Hunter Pence: Low - Moderate

Ian Snell - Ian Snell has gone from being owned in 94% of leagues to 25% ownership on average in fantasy leagues. One look at his 5.84 ERA and 1.93 WHIP and there is no need to ask why. Snell has been flat out horrid on the mound this season. Since he has always carried a higher than acceptable WHIP and his ERA has averaged 4.64 in his 5 year career, this type of downward spiral was almost predictable. All Snell brings to the party is a load of strike outs, and now that the K's are down too, all we have is a load of sh...ocking resemblance to Dontrelle Willis.
Odds that Ian Snell will prove to be anything but an over hyped prospect: Null

Nick Swisher - Nick Swisher appeared to be turning around his disappointing season last month by batting .315, however now in July he is batting .212 once again. However we are still seeing far fewer 0 for games for Swisher as we did previously. Although I doubt we'll see his batting average rise much above .250, we should see some increased power numbers and possibly even see him moved up in the batting order. Swisher remains a 30 HR, 90 RBI threat. He's got to play some catch up if he expects to even come close to that potential this season.
Odds of Nick Swisher reclaims his powers stroke in the second half: High

Mark Reynolds - How quaint that Mark Reynolds would fall right behind Nick Swisher on our alphabetically sorted list. They really do appear to be very similar players. Reynolds really hasn't shown any indication that he is more than a .260 hitter at best. He has a great power swing, but very poor timing. The timing will likely improve with experience, the power will be there for years to come and the batting average will likely stay put. I think we will see some 30 home run seasons from Reynolds in the future, and probably even an out of nowhere 2004 Adrian Beltre type season mixed in there somewhere, but he'll never be a top five third baseman.
What can we expect from Mark Reynolds in the second half: Same old same old.

Ivan Rodriguez - Ivan Rodriguez did next to nothing all season until about mid June. His average has gone from .245 to .290 in the last few weeks alone. It is doubtful that we will ever see more than a dozen home runs from Pudge in a season again, but this was at one time the best hitting catcher in the game. Pudge appears to be on track for a great second half and should be a formidable source of RBI's from here on out for a catcher. Pudge is beginning to show his age though and is most likely going to need at least one day of a week. He still has the potential to be a top five catcher in the second half.
Odds that Pudge continues to perform like a top 10 catcher: High

Jimmy Rollins - With a 100% sucess rate in stolen bases this season and a .270 BA Jimmy Rollins is hardly a slouch at shortstop, but he hasn't quite performed like a first round draft pick. Rollins has always put up a strong second half. Currently on pace for around forty stolen bases, it is reasonable to expect that he will not only reach that projection, but exceed his projected on pace season totals in every offensive category.
Odds that there will be no regrets in your first round pick: Very High

Troy Tulowitski - Troy Tulowitski has only logged 151 at bats so far this season due to a lengthy DL stint, and now finds himself back on the DL with a cut hand due to a freak accident. Tulo is without a doubt this years most regrettable draft pick. In his limited at bats this season he has still done bupkis. A disgusting .165 batting average with none of the power and RBI success he and his owners enjoyed last season. The injuries provide a convenient excuse, but given the fact that he had only 126 at bats at the minor league level, I think it's safe to say 2007 was just a fluke.
Odds Tulo is even worthy of second half ownership in a 12 team league: Very Low

Justin Verlander - Is Justin Verlander just enjoying a hot streak or is he finally back to stud status? I know all his other fantasy owners are asking themselves that question as well. Drafted this season as a top five starter in most leagues, Verlander's season to date has been beyond disappointing. As of right now we are enjoying the strike out machine we all expected and Verlander also has yet to allow more than two runs in his last six starts. His ERA is quickly plummeting, and although it still currently sits above 4.00 it should continue to fall. Verlander is a must start pitcher once again and should be on pace for a strong finish.
Odds Verlander continues to turn it around this season: High

Delmon Young - Delmon Young is enjoying a moderate hot streak, and has maintained a respectable batting average all season, but it has still been rather under-whelming. We just expected so much more than a few home runs, nine steals, and a disappointing 20 RBI's by mid-season. Get used to it folks, I have a feeling this is as good as it gets. We might see him gain more confidence in his base stealing, but I'm not convinced he can ever become a 30-30 player, never mind the 40-40 player he was expected to become.
Odds Delmon Young begins to hit for more power this season: Low

Barry Zito - Barry Zito was once trademarked has a second half stud. Many of you will remember last year that just about every week after the all-star break I suggested that it was coming. Start after start I assured you, the strong second half was coming, and to be patient. I took my own advice and it wasn't a matter of patience, it was foolishness. It simply never came, and this season Zito looks worse that ever. Once again he is picking it up, and the Giants looked on pace to become serious contenders due to a hot streak and an ice cold D-Backs team. Although, Zito is looking strong coming in to the second half again, the Giants have cooled off mired in a seven game losing streak at this time. Bottom line is even if Zito does return to have a hot second half, his strike out to walk ratio has always been poor, and he pitches for a joke of a team, in a joke of a division. There is no need to ride this roller coaster, there are currently plenty of young up and coming pitchers this season ripe and ready to be plucked off the free agent tree.
Odds That Barry Zito returns as a strong second half pitcher: Moderate
Odds that you should care: Low

Questions or comments? You can contact me by e-mail at tenaciousdstore@fantasyplaymakers.com .