NFL Mailbag :: Week 6 by John Lubic Published: October 12, 2007, 5:20 pm
The best time of the year is upon us. The NFL season has reached its quarter-pole, the MLB playoffs are in full swing, as is the NCAA football season, and the NHL season is just getting underway. Combine that with the unseasonably warm weather throughout the northeast this month and you get every man’s dream. Enjoy it while it lasts, because it won’t last long. Nor will the reign of our…Another week, another wild day of NFL action last Sunday with upsets galore and plenty of fantasy news to go around. The dreaded bye weeks started last week as well, so planning and setting your lineup becomes more and more crucial each week. The fun part of fantasy football has begun, so let’s jump right in to our…
Fantasy Playmaker of the Week
Cheers to those of you who spend every waking moment of Sunday mornings scouring waiver wires and injury reports. I’m one of you. I just wish I was one of the select few who picked up and started Indianapolis backup running back Kenton Keith last week for a spot start while filling in for the injured Joseph Addai. All Keith did was rack up 121 rushing yards and score a pair of touchdowns while also catching five passes for 37 yards. The Colts have a bye this week to get Addai healthy again, so Keith won’t even stay around on your bench for long, unless you’re in a very deep league. But it’s nice to know now exactly who will fill in for Addai should he get hurt again, and how he can perform if that happens. Lubic’s Top Five
1. New England* - I’ve actually read columns talking about the Patriots’* off-week against Cleveland last Sunday, since they “only” won by 17 points. Yep, this team is pretty good.
2. Indianapolis – A much-needed bye comes this week to get the Colts healthy after arguably their most impressive win of the season, a 33-14 thrashing of the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus many key players. Should New England* beat the Cowboys this Sunday, a potential meeting of undefeated Colts and Patriots* looms on November 4th. 3. Dallas – I’m not too worried about the egg Tony Romo and the Cowboys laid in Buffalo on Monday night. They ended up with the win, and they were probably thinking too much about New England*. But I don’t like their chances against the Patriots* one bit. 4. Pittsburgh – The Steelers proved that their loss in the desert was what we thought it was! Without All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu, All-Pro nose tackle Casey Hampton, and nickleback Bryant McFadden, all the Steelers did was shutout the red-hot Seahawks 21-0. Oh, and by the way, All-Pro wide receiver Hines Ward and number two man Santonio Holmes didn’t play either.
5. Green Bay – The number five spot is Green Bay’s to lose. It’s eerie how much of a drop off there is after these five teams, and Green Bay needs to bounce back to prove they still belong here. Another Packers loss and it’ll be “nobody” holding the number five spot.
Fearless Predictions
Carolina at Arizona – The Kurt Warner era begins (again) in Arizona this week, and I couldn’t be more excited. Warner looks like he just stepped out of a Delorian, and this could finally be the year that the Cardinals actually compete in the NFC West. Their impressive season continues with a win over the Panthers, who could possibly be led by Vinny Testaverde. Party like it’s 1999. ---Arizona 27, Carolina 13 St. Louis at Baltimore – The Rams really have no chance of winning this game, but give the Ravens some credit for being a bad football team. They’re actually 9 ½ point favorites in this game, which I don’t see them covering. If you enjoy watching football, stay away from this game. ---Baltimore 17, St. Louis 10 Minnesota at Chicago – The 1-3 Vikings are better than their record indicates and have still outscored their opponents this season. I’m giving Chicago the edge because of home field and because they can build off of an impressive victory over the Packers last week. But don’t be surprised to see the Vikings keep it within reach. ---Chicago 23, Minnesota 20 Cincinnati at Kansas City – The Bengals’ season will pretty much die with a loss here, which would drop them to 1-4. I don’t see that happening. As bad as their defense has been, their offense is that good. They’ll get it together for a nice road victory. ---Cincinnati 30, Kansas City 24 Miami at Cleveland – Kellen Winslow vs. Joey Porter is always interesting. If only these teams didn’t suck horribly. Another game to avoid if you enjoy football. ---Cleveland 21, Miami 16 Washington at Green Bay – This game should really tell us something about one or both of these teams. The Packers are a contender in the NFC North, but are they a threat to win the conference over Dallas? Same goes for the Redskins and the NFC East. I’m giving the edge to the home team, but this will be a fun game to watch and a true learning experience. ---Green Bay 24, Washington 23 Houston at Jacksonville – I’m still not sold on Jacksonville as a contender in the AFC, but I’m running out of reasons to doubt the 3-1 Jaguars. It says here they’ll beat their division rivals, but I have no confidence in this pick at all. ---Jacksonville 19, Houston New England* at Dallas – The game of the season to this point, by far needs little analysis for me to predict. Even if Dallas had blown the Bills out Monday night, the prediction remains the same. You simply can’t pick against the Patriots* right now. This is the most impressive start to a season that I can ever remember seeing. ---New England* 38, Dallas 31 Philadelphia at New York Jets – The 1-3 Eagles have an offense and a defense that rank in the upper half of the league and, thanks to their 56-21 thumping of the Detroit Lions, have also outscored their opponents this season. The Jets might be the worst team in the AFC if it weren’t for the lowly Miami Dolphins. The Eagles keep their season alive with a victory at the Meadowlands. ---Philadelphia 30, New York Jets 17 Oakland at San Diego – Before the season started, this game wouldn’t have deserved a split second of thought. Now, it does. But only a split second. San Diego in a blowout. ---Chargers 34, Raiders 13 New Orleans at Seattle – Despite laying a huge egg in Pittsburgh last week, Seattle remains one of the NFC’s elite teams. That game just showed the difference in strength between the two conferences. New Orleans has lost all respect for their ability this season. Until Drew Brees figures it out, I’m staying far, far away from them. ---Seattle 27, New Orleans 10 Tennessee at Tampa Bay – Upset of the week. Tampa is favored by three points, but the Titans will steal this one on the road. Tampa Bay doesn’t have the weapons to score on a fast Titans’ defense, while the Titans should be able to get just enough done offensively to pull off the road upset. ---Tennessee 20, Tampa Bay 17 New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons – What a horrible, horrible Monday Night game. Giants take it on the road. Whatever. ---New York Giants 24, Atlanta 14
To the Mailbag!
From Adam Hathaway: "Who do you think are the best/worst buy low candidates and why?"
Awesome question, Adam. The best buy low candidate is Larry Johnson. Now perhaps that’s too obvious, and he won’t be easy to pry away from many fantasy owners. But I’ve seen him go for a package of Ben Watson and Philip Rivers in one league, so there definitely impatient owners out there looking to get anything valuable in return. Johnson wasn’t just some guy who racked up 1,000 yards behind a stout offensive line the last couple seasons. He was a dominant, game-altering back. With a holdout in the pre-season, and some issues at quarterback as well as on the offensive line, it’s no surprise Johnson is struggling. He’ll get his act together before long.
The worst buy low candidate is Thomas Jones. The Jets really are that bad. Jones has had enough trouble running on his own, but the Jets love Leon Washington as a third down back, and they won’t be protecting any second half leads so his production will be limited there, as well. I don’t look for a strong rest of the season for the former Bear.
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