Since every NFL team gets a bye week, meaning there are 17 "weeks" in an NFL-season of 16 games per team, there is no true "half-way" point to the season. NFL rules require anyone writing anything about the league to do a "Midseason report" column of some type, so I've incorporated some of that this week, even though we're also supposed to be talking nonstop about the most importantest regular season game ever played by any teams in any sport that takes place somewhere in Indiana this week. Bah, let's just move on and talk about last week's …

Fantasy Playmaker of the Week

This spot could easily be occupied again by Tom Brady*, but it's time to credit Drew Brees for turning his season around and finally being a full-fledged fantasy force in 2007. Brees threw for 336 yards and four touchdowns in San Francisco last week, and has thrown for eight scores with just one pick over his last three games after throwing just one touchdown and nine interceptions in his first four games. It's no coincidence that the Saints started 0-4 and are now riding a three game winning streak. All of us wrote off the Saints at 0-4, but they're now just one game out of first place in the weak NFC South.

Lubic’s Top Five

1. New England* - There's been a lot of talk lately about the Patriots* running up the score on opponents, and for good reason. Now, the only thing I really had a problem with was the touchdown with 19 seconds remaining against Dallas, when they could've taken a knee. But Belicheat has to think about how much he wants to risk injury by continuing to use his starters in the fourth quarter when leading by 40 points. Some "genius."

2. Indianapolis – Can they knock off New England* and take over the #1 spot this week? Yes. Will they? No.

3. Pittsburgh, Dallas and Green Bay in whatever order, comprise the rest of this list. But we're not supposed to talk about any other teams in advance of the most importantest regular season game in the history of the universe. This is bigger than David vs. Goliath. More important than Jesus vs. Judas. Leave your wives, lose the kids, and watch this game! And buy from our advertisers!


Fearless Predictions

San Francisco at Atlanta – Ladies and gentlemen, the LEAST importantest regular season game of all time!

--- Atlanta 23, San Francisco 16

Cincinnati at Buffalo – This game is surprisingly hard to pick, but I’m just not ready to throw the Bengals so far away that they lose to a team as bad as Buffalo. Granted, the Ravens just did, but they were playing without a ton of starters, most of them Pro Bowlers. Don’t underestimate just how much this Buffalo team stinks.

--- Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 20

Seattle at Cleveland – Could this be the week Cleveland gets exposed? Yes. The Browns own the worst statistical defense in the league. Yes, they won their last two games by scoring a combined 58 points, but those games were against the unanimous two worst teams in the league, the winless Dolphins and the winless Rams. The struggling Seahawks are more talented and well-coached, and will win a shootout on the road on Sunday.

--- Seattle 34, Cleveland 30

Dallas at Philadelphia – Despite being obviously overshadowed by Colts-Patriots*, this is a very good game featuring two teams that rank in the top-ten both offensively and defensively on Sunday Night football. The up-and-down Eagles need a victory here desperately and need to start playing better consistently, but it’s impossible to pick against Dallas, who is undefeated in intra-conference games. The Cowboys win in a close one.

--- Dallas 30, Philadelphia 27

Denver at Detroit – This is another tough game to call, because it appears that the 5-2 Lions are for real, and the Broncos, despite their 3-4 record, have been playing solid football of late. Still, I look at the statistical matchups: Offensively, Denver ranks 7th, while the Lions rank 14th. Defensively, the Broncos rank 25th to Detroit’s 28th. The combined record of Denver’s opponents is 32-17, while the combined record of Detroit’s opponents is 20-33. Factor in the AFC’s superiority and I like the Broncos in a mild upset.

--- Denver 27, Lions 24

Green Bay at Kansas City – The first place Packers at the first place Chiefs in November! Can you believe it? While I think Green Bay is the better team, they’re coming off an overtime road game on Monday night, while the Chiefs are coming off a bye. Kansas City will control the clock with Larry Johnson, something the Packers won’t be able to do with Ryan Grant, and squeak out a narrow victory.

--- Kansas City 20, Green Bay 17

New England* at Indianapolis – I’m not overdoing the analysis here. I’m already tired of it, frankly. New England* is a better team, so I’m picking them to win. It’s that simple.

--- New England* 28, Indianapolis 27

Jacksonville at New Orleans – The Saints are back, and the world knows it, as evidenced by them being 3 point favorites over a 5-2 AFC team. Of course, that AFC team is going to be starting Quinn Gray at quarterback and will be without the steroid-assisted services of Marcus Stroud. Saints keep a-rollin’.

--- New Orleans 27, Jacksonville 17

Houston at Oakland – The Texans are have won just one of their last six games after starting 2-0, and have a couple things factoring against them this week. Matt Schaub will give way to Sage Rosenfels as he recovers from a concussion, and the Raiders always have a huge home field advantage, no matter how bad their team. Frankly this might be a worse game than San Francisco at Atlanta, and I couldn’t care less about it. There are not really much fantasy implications either.

--- Oakland 3, Houston 0

San Diego at Minnesota – Adrian Peterson should sue the Vikings. If they had a quarterback and a competent coaching staff, they’d be right in the playoff mix, and Peterson would be a fantasy MVP contender. This game is still kind of cool since it’s LT vs. the future LT – that is to say AP. I hate using initials.

-- SD 38, MN 21

Arizona at Tampa Bay – Both teams are struggling, having lost two straight. The Cardinals have the advantage of coming off a bye, while the Bucs have the home field advantage. Arizona has the offensive edge, while Tampa Bay has the edge on defense. It’s virtually a pick’em, which I almost always give to the home team.

-- Tampa Bay 20, Arizona 19

Washington at New York Jets – I’m as eager as anyone to see what the Kellen Clemens era is going to bring, but I’m going to temper my expectations until he actually shows me something outside of the preseason.

-- Washington 21, New York Jets 10

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – They could probably play this game without a ball. This slugfest is going to be close, much closer than the nine-point line the odds makers are favoring Pittsburgh by. Still, the Steelers are a better team, and will emerge victorious at Heinz Field on Monday night.

--- Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 17

To the Mailbag!

Our first question this week comes from Josh in Ohio, who writes,

“At the season’s halfway point, what are your predictions for the playoffs?”

Thanks for the question, Josh. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

AFC:

Division Winners:

1. New England*

2. Indianapolis

3. Pittsburgh

4. San Diego

This is very easy to call. The only question mark is San Diego, who is only tied for the division lead at the moment with the 4-3 Chiefs, just one game ahead of the 3-4 Broncos. But it’s obvious watching the games that after their slow start, the Chargers are now easily the class of the AFC West.

Wildcards:

5. Baltimore

6. Tennessee

I really see the AFC as being top-heavy this year. Jacksonville, Kansas City and Denver could make a run at these spots as well. Now that Baltimore is healthy, they should be able to make a run. The Titans need to improve, and have been lucky, but are well-coached and will sneak in with the final spot.

Wildcard Round:
PIT over TEN
SD over BAL

Divisional Round
NE over SD
IND over PIT

Championship Round:
NE over IND

Yeah, yeah, I know it’s a vanilla call. Really going out on a limb there, eh? Seriously, though, at this point you’d be insane not to pick the Colts and Patriots to meet again in the AFC title game. I see the Pats winning a showdown in the snow at Foxboro.

NFC:

Division Winners:

1. Dallas

2. Green Bay

3. Seattle

4. New Orleans

Yes, I see the Saints coming all the way back and winning the division. The NFC South is traditionally one of the worst divisions in the league, and this year is no different. Other than that there are no real surprises. The NFC East will be competitive with the Giants, Redskins and perhaps even the Eagles making their runs, but the Cowboys are too good to lose ground.

Wildcards:

5. New York Giants

6. Washington Redskins

The NFC East is easily the best division in football this season, and it will show with both wildcards being awarded to teams in the division. Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Arizona will make some noise, but ultimately the final spot will come down to the Redskins or the Detroit Lions. Despite John Kitna’s divine intervention, I’m not ready to predict a playoff spot for the lowly Lions just yet. It just sounds so wrong.

Wildcard Round:
WAS over SEA
NYG over NO


Divisional Round
DAL over WAS
NYG over GB

Championship Round
DAL over NYG

My AFC picks were by the book, but I’m going out on a limb a little for my NFC picks. The Giants might be the 2nd best team in the conference, while the Redskins solid play will be enough to earn them a wildcard spot as well as a first round victory over the sluggish Seahawks, winners of a weak West. Still, I have the best two current teams in the conference meeting in the Championship game.

**SUPER BOWL**

New England over Dallas. I hate that I have two #1 seeds meeting in the Super Bowl, but these teams really are that much better than their competition. And if New England can handily defeat the Cowboys in Dallas, I have no reason

Our next question comes from Leopold in Denver, who writes:

“I need to start 2 WR's this week. I have Roy Williams, Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson with Torry Holt on a bye. Initially, I'm thinking Williams and Marshall. However, Lee Evans was recently dropped. With Chris Chambers now in San Diego, Jackson's fantasy value has dropped substantially. At the same time, I'm not sold on the idea that a Losman return makes Evans a fantasy stud again.

So, I have two questions...

First, in a long-term move, would you drop Jackson for Evans?

Secondly, if so, would you start Evans in place of either Williams or Marshall”

Excellent e-mail, Leopold. First, I would definitely drop Jackson for Evans, though I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it. Since you’ll be starting Williams and Holt each week, and Marshall is better than both, it doesn’t matter that much, so you need to look at upside. Jackson might be the better talent, and is the unknown, but Evans, despite his struggles this season, has a history of being a valuable fantasy commodity. I like him over Jackson, and would pick him up in hopes of a turnaround.

Secondly, I wouldn’t start Evans over either of those two. Williams is a must-start every week regardless of opponent, even though he’s struggled for a few weeks now. Marshall has been remarkably consistent on the season. In a standard-scoring league, with one point for every ten receiving yards and six points for a touchdown, here is Marshall’s week-to-week fantasy point production: 11, 8, 13, 8, 7, 7, 7. Nothing jumps out at you, but it’s always nice to have a receiver with no fewer than seven points in any week. If you extrapolate Marshall’s numbers over a full season, he’s on pace for 82 catches, 1173 yards, and 4.6 touchdowns. Pretty nice for the second year pro.

As far as Evans goes, the 236 yards on ten catches over the last two games is nice, but as you mention, a Losman return provides more questions than answers, and Evans was nothing short of awful before the last two games. Get him on your roster. But for now, keep him on your bench.

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Tags: Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy football news, NFL Mailbag, NFL Predictions