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'07 MLB Offseason Transactions
by Gil W.
Published: December 13, 2007, 9:23 pm

American League

Anaheim

  • Torii Hunter - Torii Hunter was one of this offseaon's biggest FA signings. Hunter signed with the Angels apparently to make up for the mistake of signing Matthews Jr. last offseason. The Angels have kept the rest of their offense the same so far with the exception of the Cabrera-Garland trade. They also have a good amount of young talent that is more likely to get better over last year. Overall, this move should help Hunter's fantasy value increase. The key word is should. Hunter seemed to play over his head for a lot of last season having the second best year of his career. There is quite a bit to suggest that playing for a 90 million dollar contract gave Hunter a bit more power as it is hard to explain otherwise how a 31 year old player sees his Isolated Power increase two years in a row despite logic suggesting it should have peaked already and be on the decline. Don't expect an extreme decline in performance like his predecessor, Matthews Jr., saw, but still be a bit cautious with him. No matter what, at least he should be near 100 runs and RBIs again this year hitting around Vlad.
  • Jon Garland - Since the White Sox great run in 2005, Garland has been looked at as a good middle of the rotation starter. In reality, he had one great career year and has been lucky to have slightly above average results in the 2 years since then. He's an innings eater who will post an ERA from 4.25-4.50. He has a terrible strikeout rate, he doesn't have anything other than decent control, and he has been prone to the long ball a bit too much (his old home park didn't help though). Maybe entering his prime years will make him repeat 2005, but it is more likely that he continues to not help fantasy teams much. A major downside to moving to the Angels is that he now faces much tougher competition for the rotation. Lackey, Escobar, and Weaver are a sure thing for the top 3 in the rotation while Garland is stuck in the bottom of the rotation with Saunders, Santana, and Moseley as other options if one of them fails.


 Boston

  • Curt Schilling
  • Mike Lowell - One of the bigger FAs of this offseason quickly put an end to any rumors of him moving. He liked Boston and even gave them a bit of a discount to resign there. Even though he is playing where he is comfortable and has what looks to be an improved opening day lineup over last year, there is still a bit of concern with Lowell. Last season when Lowell hit .324, his BABIP was also .342. That is nearly 40 points higher than his previous career high and well above what one expects to be average. With that BABIP, its no wonder he hit 30 points higher than his previous career high.


 Chicago

  • Orlando Cabrera - Orlando Cabrera going to Chicago instantly raises his fantasy value. His new ballpark, US Cellular Field, is a much better hitter's park than Angel Stadium. The White Sox offense last year was extremely disappointing, but a rebound year from Konerko will make that lineup much better making Cabrera a good source of runs hitting around the big bats of Thome, Dye, and Konerko. Newly acquired Carlos Quentin could also help the White Sox get their offense back to respectability.
  • Scott Linebrink
  • Carlos Quentin


 Cleveland

  • Masahide Kobayashi


 Detroit

  • Miguel Cabrera - Miguel Cabrera's move to Detroit makes his value take a very nice jump up even though he was already one of the top fantasy hitters in baseball these past few years. Hanley Ramirez is great and Hermida has some good power, but those guys don't compare to a lineup that includes Gary Sheffield, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Placido Polanco, and Edgar Renteria. Cabrera was able to put up a .966 OPS while being pitched around many times. Stick him in the middle of an offense that ranked 4th in the league last season in OPS and improved in the offseason and he should have career highs in all of his stats.
  • Dontrelle Willis - Well Willis really can't be any worse this upcoming season than he was last year. He had what was by far his worst year in the Majors last season seeing his ERA skyrocket to 5.17. There have been many reports as to why he did this poorly, but still no one knows for sure. He was still a nice 200 inning pitcher who managed to rack up 146 Ks. With the offense Detroit has put together for this season, if Willis is able to repeat his poor performance of last season he should still end up with 14 or 15 wins. But moving to a pitcher's haven like Detroit with a better defense behind him will help out. Last season, the Marlins Fielding Independent Pitching was at 4.68 (.27 lower than their team ERA) while the Tigers put up a FIP of 4.73 (.16 higher than their team ERA).
  • Freddy Guzman
  • Jacque Jones - Being a starter on what looks to be the clear-cut best offense in the league is always going to improve a player's fantasy value. If his BA/OBP/SLG remains the same this season, his fantasy value will stay take a nice jump upwards. His power not changing seems highly unlikely though. Last season, he hit only 5 HRs with 5.6% of his flyballs leaving the park. Throughout the rest of his career, he has been a pretty good bet to hit around 20 with around 20% of his flyballs leaving the park. His ISO took a 100 point drop. Even though Detroit's home park is very spacious and is much more helpful to pitchers, it is still unlikely that Jones does not see his power spike right back up to be more near his career averages. The only downside is that owners will have to watch if he plays that day or not. The Tigers will want to still give Thames some playing time and Jones sitting on the occasional day makes sense.
  • Edgar Renteria


 Kansas City

  • Jose Guillen
  • Yasuhiko Yabuta


Minnesota

  • Brendan Harris - Harris has moved a lot in his career starting out as a Cub, going to the Expos/Nats, moving to Cinncy, and then calling Tampa Bay home. Harris has once again switched uniforms. Harris right now is nothing more than an average hitter. He's going to give an average BA, throw in some HRs, doesn't have much speed, and will probably hit in the dead part of the Twins lineup. The Twins have Nick Punto and the more promising Alexi Casilla, so Harris will probably only see playing time as a utility player with most of his playing time shifting between the middle infield spots. His fantasy value will probably end up coming from that, his multiple IF position eligibility.
  • Jason Pridie - He was an early draft pick in the Rays 2002 draft who has really failed to impress up until last season. He had nice runs when he was drafted in rookie league ball and short season A ball, but failed to hit the ball until last season when he was promoted to AAA. In Tampa Bay, he was probably looked at as a nice OF prospect, but was very expendable. After all, Tampa Bay has had some of the prospects in baseball filling their OF for the past few years. In Minnesota though, he is going to be given a shot to be their everyday CF as of right now. In AAA last year, he posted a BA/OBP/SLG of .318/.375/.539 while going 12-15 in SB attempts. This looks like a guy who could sneak up on fantasy teams this year.
  • Delmon Young - Its rare to see many players play the full season these days which makes Delmon Young's 162 games as a 21 year old rookie that much more impressive. But for all the hype he got, Young's rookie season was nowhere near what he is expected to do in the rest of his career. But once again, he was only 21 years old and was rushed through the Rays minor league system. This trade alone doesn't raise his value, but adding that year of ML ABs to his resume will. Delmon Young wasn't considered the number 1 prospect in baseball for nothing. He still has the "p" word attached to his name (potential) and is likely to show off some of that hyped power of his. That Twins lineup is still weak with probably the worst MI in all of baseball, but they have a nice 2-3-4 with Mauer-Young-Morneau right now.


 Tampa Bay

  • Jason Bartlett - Bartlett left the 2006 season giving Twins fans hope that they would finally have a good SS on defense and offense for a change. But much like the last guy to give them hope (Christian Guzman), Bartlett disappointed in 2007. Bartlett doesn't have much power and depends on his ability to either get a single or take a walk to first. He's shown that he can take a walk at the Major League level, but he has been unable to hit his way on base. He is going to be given the starting SS spot and can steal a base when he actually reaches first. If he can get his BA up to the .280/.290 range, he can become a useful fantasy player. Useful, but still not the best choice for a starting fantasy SS since all that he will actually help a lineup with is SBs and runs (batting 9th in front of Carl Crawford helps with that).
  • Matt Garza - Garza last season showcased a great ERA for a 23 year old with a handful of Major League starts under his belt. Drafted in the middle of the 2005 season, he already made his Major League debut a little over a year later. Throughout his short minor league career, he was able to post a great 10.04 K/9 and averaged .56 HR/9. His control could use a bit of work, but most young strikeout pitchers take a little longer to develop good control and command. Looking at his starts last year, its not out of the question to see him improving even more on what he did last year. He had one terrible start out of his 15 starts, but otherwise did a great job of keeping the ball in the yard and still saw a good amount of strikeouts. The trade to Tampa Bay doesn't hurt his fantasy value much if at all. He wasn't going to get good run support in Minny and might actually see some better help in the young studs that the Rays are putting out there. The best part about his being traded is that he now will be under the radar.
  • Glenn Gibson - Well the D-Rays certainly didn't get an immediate impact player in return with Gibson when they traded Dukes to the Nats and got Gibson back. Gibson was drafted in 2006 and saw a brief stint in low A and repeated low A last year. He's a nice, tall lefty who projects to be a number 3 in the Majors. If everything goes right for him, he could see high A by the end of 2008, but is still far away from contributing anything to the Devil Rays Major League team.
  • Eduardo Morlan - Morlan was the final piece of the Rays' return in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade. Morlan is going to start next season at the age of 22 years old, but looks like he could break through with the Major League team at some point next season. He's got a great arm on him being able to throw a 100 mph fastball with a good slider as well. In high A, he was able to put up an amazing 12.61 strikeouts per nine innings. That was also his first season as a full time relief pitcher. If the Rays need some more bullpen help, he could see an early call-up to the Majors. And with his great stuff, he should be able to be an immediate positive impact for the Rays and their probably future closer.
  • Troy Percival


 Texas

  • Chris Shelton - Shelton's name should sound familiar to most people. In the middle of 2005, Shelton's bat emerged and he became a hot fantasy pick up. His eligibility at catcher was a huge plus to teams too. In 2006, the secret was out on Shelton and he was a legitimately good choice at first base for teams. Unfortunately, he was not worth the pick up as he saw a demotion to AAA Toledo by the end of the July. He then spent all of 2007 in the minors as well, not worth a call-up over the great Sean Casey. Still, he wasn't terrible in AAA with an .381 OBP and an .801 OPS. He goes into 2008 as one of the few options for Texas at 1B. In all likelihood, Shelton won't be anything more than Catalonotto's platoon partner at first, but if he succeeds in that role than he will see his playing time increase. If he doesn't have success, well then its pretty much guaranteed that he will not be on a Major League team for long.
  • Milton Bradley


 Yankees

  • Andy Pettitte - Pettitte saw an improvement in his ERA even though he had to transition back to the more difficult league. He's going to be 36 next June, but he can still pitch as an elite pitcher and has actually been pretty healthy throughout his career so no big injuries of concern. No one should be expecting him to repeat his dominance from his 2005 season, but at least his wins total should be near that level. The Yanks will continue to give Pettitte the run support he needs to be a 15 game winner and in return, he will continue to post a 4 ERA with about 150 Ks. Last season was his first back in the AL since 2003 so he might have just needed a bit of adjustment time as evidenced by his second half improvements (better ERA, better K/Rate, better OPS against).
  • Jonathan Albaladejo
  • Latroy Hawkins
  • Jorge Posada - It is rare to say that a 35/36 year old player had his career year that year when he has played for over 10 years as a productive player. It is rare to say that a 35/36 year old catcher can still be a productive hitter. It was near unthinkable to predict Posada to post a .970 OPS last season. As if that wasn't reason enough to think that he won't come close to repeating that next season, check out his .389 BABIP last season. Posada will come a lot closer to his 2005 or maybe 2006 production next season than 2007.
  • Mariano Rivera - Rivera last season was one game away from having his 12th straight year with an ERA under 3. Rivera has some of the same concerns as he has had for a while now. It is still yet to see whether or not he will finally hit a wall and whether or not he will be overworked as always. The thing working in his favor is that the Yanks have a new manager now who might not be so inclined to use Rivera whenever there is a problem. The addition of LaTroy Hawkins helps a lot too as Rivera has a more reliable set-up pitcher to make sure he isn't forced to come in with the bases loaded and an out or two to go in the 8th. So look for Rivera to not hit that wall just yet.
  • Alex Rodriguez - Few thought that he would return to the Yankees after he opted out of the largest contract in MLB history. This is the best player in baseball and one of the greatest players of all time already. There is little that could really change his fantasy value. Although, it looks like A-Rod really wants to play in NY and has done a good job of making New York realize that. If the fans and the press can give him an easier time, A-Rod might play better so take that into account.

Alex Rodriguez


National League

 Arizona

  • Chris Carter - The White Sox paid a high price to get Quentin when they traded Carter away. While he is only 20 years old and spent all of last season in A ball, he dominated the league showing a good eye and good power. Carter was also recently named the White Sox best prospect by Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein. For only 20 years old, his .231 Isolated Power was 10th in the league despite being one of the youngest players in the league. That type of power generally does not develop so quickly in hitters. Being traded to Arizona also is likely to make Carter arrive in the Majors sooner as Arizona isn't a team that will be patient with its prospects if they have the talent. Carter should start the year in high A--in the very hitter friendly California League-- and should move quickly to AA. So he is at least a year away in being able to produce for a fantasy team, but might be worth a look in deeper multi-year teams as he could be the next big bat at 1B.


 Atlanta

  • Josh Anderson
  • Tom Glavine
  • Gorkys Hernandez
  • Omar Infante - Infante's greatest value comes from his multiple position eligibility. In most leagues, he should go into 2008 eligible as at 2B, SS, 3B, and OF. He will also see his value increase moving to the NL and more specifically Atlanta. With the oft hurt Chipper Jones at third, a still inexperienced SS in Yunel Escobar, and no superstars at CF, LF, and 2B, Infante can see a good amount of playing time throughout the season. He also isn't too old to not expect any improvements at all from him. He really shouldn't be on any mixed league team to begin the season unless it is a very deep league, but Infante is a player to keep an eye on throughout the season as he will have good opportunities to start a lot and be able to earn more playing time.
  • Jair Jurrjens
  • Will Ohman


 Chicago Cubs

  • Jose Ascaino
  • Kerry Wood


 Cincinnati

  • Francisco Cordero - Francisco Cordero just signed an absurdly large contract to be the closer the Reds have been looking for for quite a while now. The Red are going to be extremely disappointed. Cordero was traded away from Texas to Milwaukee because he started failing as their closer. He was unable to close out games without letting the other team back into game and when demoted to set-up man, he rarely made the 8th inning boring for the other team. The trade to Milwaukee made Texas look terrible until interleague play started and Cordero went back to melting down in Arlington. Since then, he went from being untouchable to being a good closer but still hittable. Also last year with Milwaukee, he posted a 6.55 ERA on the road and had an .843 OPS against instead of the .431 OPS against he had while pitching in Milwaukee. He hasn't pitched much in his new home ballpark, but his few innings there haven't been good and it is much more of a hitter's park than the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is. Basically, let someone else take the risk in Cordero.


 Colorado

  • Aaron Cook
  • Yorvit Torrealba


 Florida

  • Burke Badenhop - Badenhop at this point is nothing more than a dynasty team pick-up. He has great control which has helped him overcome his lack of great stuff. His three years of college baseball also generally means he could be brought up through the system quickly, but he has only seen a few games above high A which means he isn't likely to see any playing time in 2008 and most likely won't even be a September call-up unless something goes terribly wrong with about 10+ possible starters for the Marlins all at the same time.
  • Dallas Trahern - Dallas is a more interesting prospect to look at. Unlike Miller, he really wasn't rushed through the Tigers system and was given a good amount of time at the major levels in the minors. He finished last season at Detroit's AAA team so he is probably among the top of the list in back-up rotation candidates. The Marlins have tried to ship Scot Olsen for a while and other starting candidates have their own injury concerns i.e. Anibal Sanchez and his shoulder tendonitis so it might only be a short while for Trahern to see the Majors. The only problem with Trahern is that he is a groundball pitcher so even if he comes up and has success at the Major League level, he still won't strike many hitters out, he'll have a high WHIP due to the number of groundballs slipping through the infield holes, and again Florida will not provide a lot of run support.
  • Cameron Maybin - His time in Detroit last season left much to be desired, but remember that he is only going to be 21 at the start of next season. And if he was good enough to see some playing time on a contending team like Detroit, Florida is sure to stick him in their lineup everyday since they can afford to train him in the Majors. That alone increases his fantasy value since Detroit was not going to play him in their OF every day. Its still not a good idea though to rely on him to do much. He might finally get in a groove though as the season goes on.
  • Andrew Miller - Miller, like Maybin, will see his fantasy value increase thanks to being traded to the Marlins. The Tigers felt he was ready to start getting some playing time in the Majors, but Florida being in a non-contending mode now will be able to stick Miller in their rotation for a full season. Last year while he had 13 starts with the Tigers, he put up a terrible 5.63 ERA over 64 IP and a horrible 1.75 WHIP. The good news though is that he managed to maintain a 7.88 K/9 which isn't bad for a rookie with about a year's worth of minor league experience. Also the added experience in the Majors can only help a pitcher like Miller. Don't expect many wins out of him for next season since Florida isn't likely to win many games in general, but he could be a decent fantasy option for deeper leagues or NL only leagues.
  • Mike Rabelo - It almost seems repetitive at this point, but Rabelo's fantasy value really increases thanks to this offseason. In Detroit, he is nothing more than Pudge's back-up. In Florida, he is likely to actually see some playing time. Right now, the Marlins have said that they expect him to start at least 100 games. He is also in the prime years of his career so that number could go north. Don't get too excited though. His season high OPS is .787 that he put up at AA so hitting is obviously not his strong suit. He does give the bonus of simply getting a lot of ABs so he can help fantasy teams in the runs and RBIs department while providing a BA that won't hurt teams too much (at least in comparison to other catchers).
  • Eulogio De La Cruz - De La Cruz is probably more likely to see some playing time in the Majors early since he is a RP and every team could always use the type of pitching De La Cruz brings. Despite being just udner 6 feet tall, he is able to throw a fastball that can reach 100 at times and will stay in the upper 90s. His fantasy impact though is minimal at best. He isn't likely to close any time soon for the Marlins and his awful control will negate the strikeouts he could bring or he might be forced to tune down the fastball to gain more control which would probably lower his strikeouts anyways.


 Houston

  • Kaz Matsui - He started his career as a huge bust but managed to become extremely underrated when he went to Colorado. Obviously not a huge source of RBIs, Kaz still managed to have a lot of fantasy value by being a major threat on the basepaths and posting a respectable .288 BA. Then Houston decided to bring him aboard. Kaz's fantasy value goes back to his Mets days with that signing. A large reason he was able to put up that .288 BA last season was the .330 BA he had in Coors and a .864 OPS there as well. On the road he hit .249 with a .638 OPS. Many teams though still find value in a player who can steal 30+ bases for them. Unfortunately, Kaz still doesn't seem like the player to do that for them. Houston only had 98 total stolen base attempts last season. For a good comparison to see how Kaz might do in Houston, Willy Taveras was able to match his SB total exactly this season with Colorado (33/42 this season and last year). The kicker was that Taveras played in about 50 less games with Colorado than with Houston.
  • Michael Bourn- Bourn's rookie year showed reasons to be optimistic about his future. He was able to go 18-19 in SBs and had a decent .277 BA with a .348 OBP. The only problem is that the little power he has only diminishes in Houston and Houston is not a fan of running on the basepaths. It isn't right to say that his fantasy value is going to be worse next season because he is a young player who should see some improvements across the board, but on the other hand going to Houston hurts his value as opposed to beginning the year as a Philly.
  • Mike Constanzo - Costonzo is a nice hitting 3rd baseman who has currently topped out at AA. He is still young, only 24 years old, and will probably start next season at AAA. It is strange to see him moved to Houston considering he could have tried to fill the hole at third base for Philly in case none of their veteran players can step up to the challenge. The Astros currently have Ty Wiggington as their 3rd baseman, so barring an injury, Constonzo will not see many (if any) Major League ABs in the near future.
  • Geoff Geary - The final part of the Lidge-Bourn deal, Geary is a RP who has been a pretty good RP the past few years. He is only 1 year removed from going 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 91.2 IP. So what caused the big decline in performance. It looks like Geary lost his great control from 2006 which also might have been the reason that his HR rate doubled and it all ended up with him having to go back to AAA. He has no shot of becoming the closer with Houston recently acquiring Valverde, but Geary looks to be able to play a valuable role as a set-up man which can get him the occasional win and save as well as plenty of holds.
  • Oscar Villarreal


 Los Angeles

  • Andruw Jones - This deal should only help Jones out. Signing a 2 year deal with the Dodgers allows him to stay in the NL, an atmosphere he is more familiar with, and gives him another shot at raising his value for a big pay day. So the incentive to perform great is there. There are also some rumors saying that Jones played most of last season hurt. Looking at everything else, it seems fair to suggest Jones' BA will not be too spectacular (probably in the .250-.260 range), but he at least goes to a team with talent on offense. Loney, Kemp, Martin, and Ethier provide young and improving talent for Jones to hit around in the lineup to give him those desirable runs and RBIs. Dodgers Stadium also plays as more of a hitter's park than Jones' old home park, Turner Field.


 New York

  • Ryan Church
  • Jhonny Estrada
  • Brian Schneider


 Philadelphia

  • Travis Blackley
  • Eric Bruntlett - Well, if Bruntlett were to ever have any fantasy value, being traded to Philly killed that. The main positions he has played in his career, 2B, SS, CF, are currently being occupied by 3 of the 4 best Phillies (Victorino, Rollins, and Utley in no particular order). His only shot at playing time is at third base competing with Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs. Both of are nothing special, but are still significantly better than Bruntlett which does not bode well for his chance of breaking through into that lineup.
  • Lincoln Holdzkum
  • Brad Lidge - Brad Lidge is certainly one of the hardest pitchers to predict. No matter what though, he goes into next season as a closer and he is always a great source of Ks. His BBs have gotten worse these past few years, but he remains pretty unhittable. His ERA isn't likely to get better as a Philly, but Lidge's value is still good as a guaranteed closer who strikes a lot of hitters out.


 Pittsburgh

  • Chris Gomez


 Milwaukee

  • Eric Gagne
  • Guillermo Mota
  • David Riske
  • Salmon Torres

 

 St. Louis
  • Cesar Izturis


 Washington

  • Elijah Dukes - Simply put, Dukes is an extremely talented OF that could have a near superstar career in the Majors. If this couldn't be said about him, Tampa Bay would have bailed out on him a long time ago. His fantasy value for next season is extremely dependent on what Dukes does off the field. Dukes isn't just a risk to sleep through team meetings or skip practices, he is a risk to actually murder someone. Throw in some illegitimate children and there is definitely reason to look at his off-the-field issues before drafting him. The good news for him is that it looks like Washington is trying to do whatever they can to turn his life around. He'll have an everyday spot in the OF as Kearns and Mo Pena aren't going to really steal any playing time from him and Milledge will probably get his own dedicated spot. His first stint last season wasn't too impressive, but a lot of rookies struggle in the Majors their first time around and a couple of months worth of games should not be much of a black mark on his potential. Also, he had a BABIP of .192 which is simply awful and when mixed in with his decent .318 OBP suggests that his BA should take a nice jump up this season.
  • Aaron Boone
  • Tyler Clippard
  • Lastings Milledge

 

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