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Second base Profiles
by Peter Mazurkiewicz
Published: March 19, 2006, 8:50 pm
1. Chase Utley PHI
Age: 27 Eligibility: 2B Upside: 4 DV: Fair Value
2005: .291 (7) 28 HR (t-3) 105 RBI (t-2) 93 RS (6) 16 SB (t-7)
Utley stormed onto the fantasy scene, crushing everything and becoming one of the elite fantasy second basemen in only his first full season. He wasn’t even a full time starter in the beginning of the year, but once the Phillies moved Placido Polanco, Utley took a hold of the starting job and never let go, hitting .282 with 19 HR, 76 RBI, 65 RS and 11 SB the rest of the way. He was especially good after the all-star break. He was able to cut down his strikeouts to 18.3% and his ISO surged to a ridiculous .291. Now going into 2006, Utley projects to be the #4 or #5 hitter in a stacked Phillies lineup. He’ll have plenty of RBI opportunities; he’ll have 2005 NL ROY Ryan Howard batting behind him, and perhaps Pat Burrell as well, so he’ll score a bunch too. The only thing that may fall off is his SB total. Though he did steal at an 84% rate, his 16 SB were the most he’s stolen since 2001 at A-ball. With Utley projecting to be a big part of the Phillies offense, manager Charlie Manuel will not be likely to take many risks with him, though he’s a good bet to get at least double digit steals. There seems to be little reason to not be excited about Utley, as very little in his statistics show any reason to doubt he’ll at least repeat his 2005 performance. He does seem to struggle a bit against lefties, as he only hit .219 and had a 26.5% K%, but that is pretty normal for a young lefty hitter, and he does retain his power, as his .250 ISO vs. LH shows. So even if the struggles against lefties continue, it’ll keep his BA down, but not his power. His .320 BABIP will keep up if his 23% LD % does, which not being dramatically high could continue, but either way with his nice drop in GB/FB last season, those LD would probably just turn to FB, meaning more HR. He’s a patient hitter, always has been, and that should help him keep that BA up there, and allow him to continue his overall progression as a hitter. Once he cuts down on the K’s against lefties, he’s easily a consistent .300 hitter, and he may have a 35-40 HR ceiling. He is 27 this year, so for those of you who make a lot out of that, it’s another piece of evidence to support one thing. Utley is easily the #1 fantasy 2B in my book.
PREDICTION: .278 35 HR 109 RBI 95 RS 12 SB
2. Chone Figgins LAA
Age: 28 Eligibility: 2B, 3B, OF Upside: 3 DV: Fair Value
2005 .290 (9) 8 HR (t-14) 57 RBI (12) 113 RS (1) 62 SB (1)
After a 2004 season that was really a surprise to a lot of people, many wondered if Figgins could repeat in 2005. Not only did he repeat, but he showed excellent growth. He saw a decent jump in BB% (7.8%-9.1%) while maintaining his K% and almost doubling his SB while stealing at a better rate (79%). His BA survived the inevitable leveling off of his LD%, only losing six points. It would be nice to see him get some more balls on the ground, which he did improve upon from 2004, but at a 1.09 GB/FB is still too low for his style of play since he has really no power to speak of. He did much better as a lefty in 2005 than as a righty, the opposite of what he did in 2004. If he gets his swing working from both sides of the plate, he’s got .300 BA potential. With eligibility at 2B, 3B and OF, hitting leadoff for a good offense, and having 70 SB potential, there are few players out there more valuable than Figgins to a roto-style player.
PREDICTION: .287 6 HR 50 RBI 110 RS 60 SB
3. Jeff Kent LAD
Age: 38 Eligibility: 2B Upside: 3 DV: Fair Value
2005: .289 (10) 29 HR (2) 105 RBI (t-2) 100 RS (4) 6 SB (t-15)
Historically second basemen see shorter peaks than any other position other than catcher. The mid-30's usually have been the downfall of even the best offensive 2B. But not Kent. Kent is showing little signs of slowing down, and his 2005 season proves it. With his advanced age, and his moving from a very good hitters’ ballpark in Houston, to a tough park in LA, many thought we were seeing the end of the line for the borderline HOFer. Kent went on to produce yet another typical Kent season. He hit 20+ HR for the tenth time in eleven seasons, and had 100 RBI for the seventh time in the last eight seasons. Add to that the fact that Kent had a career best BB/K ratio and GB/FB, you get little reason to suspect anything less again in 2006. If anything with the addition of a legitimate leadoff hitter in Rafael Furcal, better hitters possibly surrounding him health permitting in JD Drew and Nomar Garciaparra, and an awfully high 15.6% IFFB% suppressing his BA a bit, you get reason to believe 2006 may actually be better for Kent. And there is no better time to buy in on Kent as a bargain than now. With Utley’s emergence, Soriano’s continued popularity, and the overall improved depth of 2B, Kent may be a forgotten man to a certain extent.
PREDICTION: .285 26 HR 107 RBI 98 RS 4 SB
4. Alfonso Soriano WAS
Age: 30 Eligibility: 2B Upside: 2 DV: Fair Value
2005: .268 (14) 36 HR (1) 104 RBI (3) 102 RS (3) 30 SB (3)
No player has seen their fantasy value suffer more this off-season than Alfonso Soriano. The move to Washington will no doubt destroy a large part of Soriano’s fantasy value. The thing that made Soriano a regular top 2 round pick was his ability to provide the ever-so-rare 30/30 figures from second base. Say goodbye to that. Playing half of his games in RFK and a bunch more in the NL East’s other pitcher’s parks will cut his HR total down dramatically. A look at his home/road splits over the last two seasons shows why this is seemingly inevitable. In that time Soriano had taken full advantage of Texas’ Ameriquest Field, hitting .316 with a .277 ISO, an AB/HR of 16.32 and a respectable K% of 15.9% there. His road games were much worse, hitting .234 with a .175 ISO, 23.74 HR/AB, and a 23.4% K%. A move to the NL and mostly unfamiliar pitchers probably will not help Soriano’s cause either. He lacks the plate discipline to work deep counts, and since he’s unfamiliar with the pitchers, he may lack the ability to make good contact early in the count, something that is crucial to Soriano’s success. With the inability to discern balls from strikes, a well know fact, Soriano could be the victim of quite a number of strikeouts. If there’s one thing encouraging about Soriano, it’s the fact that he’s lowered his GB/FB ratio every season, now to 0.69. This worked very well in Ameriquest as you’ve seen, but in RFK, that could mean a lot of deep FB outs. In Washington’s lineup he will be the undisputed best hitter, something Soriano had never had to experience, being on loaded teams in Texas and New York. I wonder if with his hacktastic ways, and teams no doubt pitching around him, if he’ll be able to do much of anything in 2006. RBI opportunities will be scarce, his possibly sub .300 OBP will hurt his SB and RS chances, so there’s not many thinks working in Soriano’s favor for 2006. The best Soriano could hope for is a deal out of Washington, which seems possible, but unless it’s to a favorable ballpark and a good lineup, I think Soriano will not flourish as a featured hitter.
PREDICTION: .261 23 HR 82 RBI 86 RS 26 SB
5. Marcus Giles ATL
Age: 27 Eligibility: 2B Upside: 4 DV; Fair Value
2005: .291 (6) 15 HR (t-6) 63 RBI (t-8) 104 RS (2) 16 SB (t-7)
After an injury shortened 2004, Giles bounced back nicely in 2005. He regained some of the power we saw from him in his 2003 season bringing his ISO right up to about his career levels and producing overall what Giles has done pretty consistently when healthy. Unfortunately, he’s shown no real signs of the serious breakout that was suspected of him following that great 2003 season. The upside though is the fact that he is still only 27 years old and a big part of the reason he’s been stifled is hard luck injuries. He posted a career low GB/FB last year, as well as got his BB% back up (10%), which gives some reason for optimism moving forward. He’ll now be most likely hitting leadoff instead of #2, where he’s normally hit in the past. This may open the door for him to steal more bases, and perhaps cause him to take a more patient approach at the plate. The Braves lineup looks to be nothing special this year, but it appears as though as long as he’s healthy, with his on base ability and decent speed, Giles should be able to notch 100. Giles has also been a doubles machine, which could mean a power spike is possible, and since he has hit 20 HR in the past, and has a falling GB/FB, I don’t see it as too far a stretch to think he can do it again. He’s probably the most balance option at 2B, as he’ll give you plus levels in three of the five categories, and if you consider his position, respectable HR numbers to go along with that. After the top options are gone, grab Giles and you’ll be set at 2B.
PREDICTION: .293 19 HR 61 RBI 106 RS 19 SB
To see all of Peter's rankings, player profiles and more. Please download his 2006 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (PDF) here |
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