Criteria

First Tier

These guys are virtually locked into their jobs. Either they've been around forever with one hell of a track record, signed a megamillion dollar deal or are a youngster who has little competition. Or they're Taka Saito. These guys will keep their jobs all season long.

1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2008: 25/26 saves, 28 IP, 25:16 K:BB, 1.93 ERA.
2005-07 average: 44/49 saves, 70 IP, 93:31 K:BB, 2.38 ERA.
Pick number one is about as easy as it gets. The 26-year old who shares my birthday enters free agency at the end of 2008, and man does he want to get paid. K-Rod's blown one save in 2008, and he has allowed one earned run since April 17th – 20.2 innings. The lone worry is the sixteen walks.

2. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
2008: 15/15 saves, 26 IP, 26:2 K:BB, 0.35 ERA.
2005-07: 36/40 saves, 75 IP, 70:14 K:BB, 2.08 ERA.
The track record, the uniform, the untouchable cutter ... and the wear on the tires. Rivera is 38, but he seems to be improving off his first 3+ ERA season in – are you ready? – twelve hall of fame seasons. He's gone seventy-plus innings five straight years, and he's given up one run so far this season. The legend's still going strong.

3. Joe Nathan, Twins
2008: 16/17 saves, 25.2 IP, 26:5 K:BB, 1.40 ERA.
2005-07: 39/43 saves, 70 IP, 89:19 K:BB, 2.06 ERA.
Well, this list keeps looking like the top of the draft prep lists in March. Nathan has blown one save this season, and he's given up one earned run through the last 11.2 innings.

4. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2008: 17/19 saves, 27 IP, 34:3 K:BB, 2.00 ERA.
2006-07: 36/41 saves, 63 IP, 80:14 K:BB, 1.35 ERA.
Domination's been the name of the game for the Red Sox stud closer. Since earning the closer role in 2006, Papelbon has been one of the best in strikeouts, saves and ERA. At 27, he's just peaking.

5. Billy Wagner, Mets
2008: 13/15 saves, 24.2 IP, 28:4 K:BB, 0.36 ERA.
2005-07: 37/41 saves, 73 IP, 87:21 K:BB, 2.10 ERA.
One of the most outspoken players in the sport, Wagner's arm can usually deal well enough to make up for that mouth (until September). With one of the best track records in the game – 372 career saves – Wagner's long been a stud. And even with the Mets struggles, Wagner has put up elite numbers. Expect another dominant campaign with 35 saves for the star finisher.

6. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
2008: 14/17 saves, 25.1 IP, 16:7 K:BB, 2.13 ERA.
2006-07: 41/46 saves, 67 IP, 68:22 K:BB, 3.41 ERA.
With one of the best fastballs in the game, Bobby Jenks has been able to put together two consecutive solid seasons for the White Sox. His strikeouts fell from 80 to 56, but his walks dropped, too. Being on a first-place team certainly won't hurt his numbers, and the fact he led the team to a championship as closer before keeps him in tier one. Ever since signing with the club as a free agent from the Angels, he's been solid.

7. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
2008: 8/11 saves, 24.2 IP, 29:8 K:BB, 2.19 ERA.
2006-07: 32/35 saves, 71.1 IP, 93:18 K:BB, 1.77 ERA.
Speaking of good pickups, Saito was a hell of a signing at age 36 from Japan. Despite the age, Saito's been a consistent closer with six blown saves the last two years. He does have three this year, but with the dominance through two seasons and sub-2.2 ERA, he won't be moving even with Jonathan Broxton around.

8. Francisco Cordero, Reds
2008: 12/14 saves, 27 IP, 31:17 K:BB, 2.00 ERA.
2005-07: 34/41 saves, 69 IP, 83:27 K:BB, 3.38 ERA.
After getting traded to the Brewers two years ago, Cordero still had trouble with saves. In fact, even Joe Borowski has blown fewer saves over the years than Cordero. However, the Reds gave him a huge deal, so his chances of not keeping the job are very, very small. Plus, it looks like he's actually pitching well. His sub-3 ERA last year won't hurt his cause despite the seven blown saves.

Second Tier

9. Brad Lidge, Phillies
2008: 16/16 saves, 25 IP, 30:13 K:BB, 1.04 ERA.
2005-2007: 31/37 saves, 71 IP, 98:30 K:BB, 3.68 ERA.
A change of scenery can certainly do some good. Lidge was very solid last year with 88 strikeouts but also compiled eight blown saves adding to the seven the year before. Houston had enough and for the second time in the last five years, they dealt their closer to the Phillies – Wagner in 2003. And for the second time the Phils look like geniuses. Lidge just recently got his ERA over one, but there's no doubting he's keeping the job.

10. Joakim Soria, Royals
2008: 13/13 saves, 26.1 IP, 28:7 K:BB, 1.03 ERA.
2007: 17/21 saves, 69 IP, 75:19 K:BB, 2.48 ERA.
With just 16.2 minor league innings (in the Dodgers' and Padres' systems), the Royals took Joakim Soria in the Rule V Draft and seemed to have acquired a legitimate closer for the next half decade. With a 70 MPH curve to complement a 90 MPH fastball, the Mexican hurler already had 30 saves through one and a half seasons. At 24, he'll only get better ... meaning in five years he'll be wearing a different uniform.

11. Matt Capps, Pirates
2008: 11/13 saves, 25.2 IP, 16:3 K:BB, 2.45 ERA.
2007: 18/21 saves, 79 IP, 64:16 K:BB, 2.28 ERA.
After unsurprisingly winning the job from Saloman Torres – remember that name – in '07, Capps has held onto the job. Despite the team's lack of success, Capps has a shot at 30 saves and a legitimate chance at a top ten closer ranking next year. With his consistency and just two blown saves since he got the job, Capps seems set to carry the job until he leaves for more money.

12. George Sherrill, Orioles
2008: 21/23 saves, 27.2 IP, 27:14 K:BB, 3.04 ERA.
Entering this year as a primarily middle reliever to JJ Putz in Seattle, Sherrill was probably best known as the other guy with Adam Jones in the deal for Erik Bedard. But the Os have found their replacement for the injured Chris Ray with the 31-year old southpaw. Not only had Sherrill never been a closer prior to 2008, he'd barely logged 125 major league innings. Still, with a great slider as his out pitch, Sherrill trails only K-Rod in saves.

13. Kerry Wood, Cubs
2008: 17/21 saves, 32.1 IP, 36:6 K:BB, 2.78 ERA.
One of the most intriguing closers entering the year, Kerry Wood has for the most part delivered. With one of the most powerful fastballs in the game, Wood struggled through injuries the past couple seasons but seems to have found his role as a late-inning pitcher. On May 1st, however, Wood had a 5.14 ERA with three blown saves to four converted ones. Since then, Wood's gone 12-for-13 and yielded two earned runs, and he's held off perhaps the most productive middle reliever in the game Carlos Marmol.

14. Jose Valverde, Astros
2008: 16/19 saves, 30 IP, 38:8 K:BB, 3.60 ERA.
2005-07: 27 saves, 60 IP, 74: 23 K:BB, 3.45 ERA.
Valverde was excellent in 2007. However, his 2008 started off more like 2006, when he lost the job to a guy a tier above him in Lyon. That year he posted a 5.84 ERA, and this year he allowed earned runs in his first three appearances for the Astros. The Astros, who dealt prospects for a star closer to replace Lidge, hesitated to replace the all-star, and it paid off. Let's hope he keeps it going.

15. BJ Ryan, Blue Jays
2008: 12/14 saves, 18.1 IP, 21:9 K:BB, 2.95 ERA.
2005-06: 37/42 saves, 71.1 IP, 93:23 K:BB, 1.89 ERA.
After a year of recovering from Tommy John surgery, JP Ricciardi's big off-season signing from 2006 continues to justify the money. The 32-year old has now blown two consecutive saves, but his first thirteen innings this season yielded zero runs, eight saves and one victory. He'll keep that job, but obviously, his health is the big issue here.

16. Huston Street, Athletics
2008: 12/14 saves, 27.1 IP, 32:7 K:BB, 3.62 ERA.
2005-07: 25/32 saves, 199 IP, 67:17 K:BB, 2.58 ERA.
Street's been closing for the A's since he was drafted from the University of Texas. However, he also suffered injuries last season which shortened his innings total to 50. The 24-year old has the potential to be one of the better closers in the league, and he has proven it this year with thirty-two strikeouts. The A's will replace him rather than pay him, so watch out for a trade, but he won't be in any other role with Oakland.

17. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
2008: 11/14 saves, 29.1 IP, 21:17 K:BB, 2.45 ERA.
2007: 32/36 saves, 84 IP, 67:40 K:BB, 3.54 ERA.
He'Gregg quietly put together a very impressive 2007 season with 87 strikeouts and 32 saves despite starting the season as a middle reliever. The Marlins have been surprising, and the 29-year old Gregg has taken advantage. However, his strikeouts are down while his walks are way, way up. His three blown saves are just one short of his entire total last season, including two blown saves in his last three. Add in the Marlins frugality, and if they fall out of the race, Gregg may become a bargaining chip to a team in need of relief help in July.

18. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
2008: 13/15 saves, 24 IP, 19:2 K:BB, 1.50 ERA.
The 28-year old closed once before and got injured. However, he converted virtually all his saves in that short time but after his returned completely stunk. He's blown ten leads in two seasons, an average number for a reliever. The worry has always been mediocre strikeout totals – career-high of fifty – but with nineteen in twenty-four innings, maybe Lyon's peaking. Health is a slight concern, but it looks like the Diamondbacks have replaced Valverde with an admirable pitcher.

19. Troy Percival, Rays
2008: 14/16 saves, 21.1 IP, 21:4 K:BB, 2.95 ERA.
Yes, the former Angels star closer is injured and missed all of 2006, but after re-joining St. Louis last year, Dave Duncan worked his magic and look at the result. He looked great as a middle reliever and Tampa took a huge chance on the 300-save closer to bring his stuff to ninth innings for the Rays. It worked like a charm. He's dominated like his days back in Anaheim while blowing just two saves. Though he allowed three earned runs in his most recent 4.1 innings, expect Percival to keep the job for a while. Of course, he needs to get back from the hammy injury that's put him on the disabled list, but Tampa has several guys who have gotten a save in his place. There's not one guy ready to take over though Wheeler does have experience with a struggling Lidge in Houston last year.

20. Brian Wilson, Giants
2008: 16/18 saves, 24.1 IP, 28:12 K:BB, 4.44 ERA.
Yes, Wilson's ERA did reach 5.79 in May and a replacement may have been handy, but the Giants' closer has been fairly dominant much of the season. In his four most recent outings, the former twenty-fourth round selection hasn't allowed a single baserunner while blowing two saves all season. There's a small issue in walks, but Wilson's put up over a strikeout per inning. The one issue with Wilson is he tends to use his fastball – admittedly strong as 95 MPH – way too much, and hitters adjust fairly easily. He has several pitches, so using one every once in a while would be a welcomed move for Wilson owners.

21. Jon Rauch, Nationals
2008: 12/14 saves, 29.2 IP, 26:4 K:BB, 2.73 ERA.
The 6'11 monster of a man has been a dominant reliever with the Nationals pitching almost 180 innings for the Nats in two seasons. His stuff is closer-worthy, and at no point has Rauch seemed upset with the middle relief role. But an injury to star closer Chad Cordero let Rauch into the role, and he hasn't wanted to let it go. He had a 0.63 ERA in May – one earned run in 14.1 innings – and looks like he's locked the job even pending Cordero's return. If they take him out and put in the injured Cordero at this point, it would look like a laughable move. So despite the great numbers Cordero has over his career, I'd feel comfortable as a Rauch owner moving forward.

Third Tier

22. Rafael Soriano, Braves
2008: 3/4 saves, 9 IP, 11:7 K:BB, 2.00 ERA.
If he's healthy, Soriano has some of the best stuff in the Majors. However, his trip to the DL worried the Braves enough that they moved John Smoltz to the closer role. Now Smoltz is done for the year, and the Braves hope Soriano finds his fastball. The worries may have subsided as Soriano has two consecutive saves with two strikeouts. His K:BB is anything but impressive, but let's see if a few more innings of work could help him out. Soriano's strong fastball is the reason the Braves acquired him from Seattle, but in 2004 and 2005, Soriano pitched a combined 10.2 innings.
Possible Replacement
Blaine Boyer
2008: 9 holds, 35 IP, 32:12 K:BB, 3.34 ERA.
With Smoltz not available, Blaine Boyer has a good opportunity to take the job with Soriano injury or ineffectiveness. A 3:1 K:BB is impressive, and after a 3-run debut to start the year, Boyer's been fairly impressive, which included a 1.80 ERA in May and 8.1 consecutive no-earned run outings – two runs allowed total. Boyer started and relieved in the minors, but he was never a closer. The 26-year old has had his own injury issues, though, so he's no certainty either and may have others – Will Ohman, Manny Acosta, Jeff Bennett – on his heels. In fact, Acosta has the second-most saves to Soriano with three, taking over that role with Soriano hurt, but he's blown consecutive save attempts.

23. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
2008: 13/16 saves, 22 IP, 27:6 K:BB, 4.91 ERA.
2005-07: 44/49 saves, 59 IP, 49:13 K:BB, 2.88 ERA.
No, not Hoffman. Well, unfortunatel, it's sad to put a 500-save guy in this tier. And at 40, the Padres may not have a choice but to switch him out of the closer's role if he blows another save. He blew seven last year even with a 2.98 ERA, and he's got three more this season. Hoffman's career reads like a closer step-by-step blueprint to success, but right now, there is just a little inkling that things may be falling apart.
Possible Replacement
Heath Bell
2008: 11 holds, 35.1 IP, 26:11 K:BB, 2.04 ERA.
Bell's a very, very capable closer. Sure, he's never done it, and the last guy labeled as Hoffman's replacement – Scott Linebrink – was dealt away. But Bell recorded 34 holds last season blowing just four leads. He also recorded 102 strikeouts, obviously an impressive number for a reliever with his 93.2 innings. His GB/FB has fallen from 2.81 to 1.08 meaning way too many pitches are ending up in the air, but the 30-year old does benefit from the confines of Petco.

24. JJ Putz, Mariners
2008: 6/9 saves, 17.2 IP, 22:14 K:BB, 5.60 ERA.
2006-07: 38 saves, 75 IP, 93:13 K:BB, 1.86 ERA.
This guy may draw the most controversy of any player on this list. Is he guaranteed his job? Most certainly. Is he healthy enough to keep it? Damn, we can only hope. He's given up nine earned runs in 15.2 innings since returning from the disabled list while walking 13 batters. It's already bad enough the Mariners have come out sucking air, but their usually killer closer – 186 strikeouts in two seasons – has been atrocious. One knock on Putz is using his fastball less and less while compensating with a good split-finger. However, Putz has always dominated with the fastball, so using it less may suggest the rid injury still lingers.
Possible Replacement
Brandon Morrow
2008: 3 holds, 16 IP, 23:7 K:BB, 1.13 ERA.
The fifth overall draft pick in 2006, Morrow made his debut just last season while going 63 innings. He walked fifty batters, but he's walked just seven this season. The 23-year old never closed in college but quickly fell into a middle relief role for the M's. If Putz continues to look like somebody the Mariners have no trust in, Morrow seems like the best replacement. With a mid-90s fastball and rock-solid split, Morrow has the two pitches necessary for the role of a ninth-inning finisher. Now all he needs is the opportunity. That is, if the Ms don't plan on making him a starter in their terribly underachieving rotation.

25. CJ Wilson, Rangers
2008: 11/13 saves, 25 IP, 17:11 K:BB, 4.32 ERA.
I considered the guy a lefty specialist when he got the job, but the 27-year old's numbers vs. righties are actually better than those vs. lefties – .592 OPSA vs. .694 OPSA. However, Wilson's ERA is still above four with seven earned runs allowed last month in 11.2 innings. He was still 6-for-7 on save chances, but Wilson has not been the elite pitcher the Rangers need in that role. Add in that the Rangers are surprisingly in the race – at .500, but good for them – and a change maybe made if Wilson continues his inconsistency.
Possible Replacement
Frank Francisco
2008: 3 holds, 21.2 IP, 28:14 K:BB, 3.32 ERA.
The fun name would be Eddie Guardado, but the realistic guy is Francisco. He's averaging well over a strikeout per inning with a 2:1 K:BB. Last year was absolutely pathetic for Francisco with a 49:38 K:BB and a 4.55 ERA, but after a terrible April, he looks like a candidate to at least compete with Wilson. Francisco, admittedly, needs some work, but he does have a powerful fastball that can at times look like one of the best on the team.

Fourth Tier

These guys are at a 50/50 point right now. One more blown save and their job may be in someone else's hands. Or they may have just gotten the closer role and need some more time to evaluate.

26. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
2008: 7/8 saves, 27.1 IP, 17:12 K:BB, 2.63 ERA.
He's been an excellent pickup for the Cardinals, just like every other pitcher the Cards bring in. Franklin went from a consistent 4.5 ERA guy to closing for a first-place team. How'd that happen? Perhaps Dave Duncan has made a deal with the pitching devil, and now Franklin has the job over former closer Jason Isringhausen. Isringhausen's injuries and ineffectiveness made way for the 35-year old, who had one save in 2007, the only save of his career before 2008. But since he just got the job, he could also lose it any moment.
Possible Replacement
Kyle McClellan
2008: 15 holds, 31.1 IP, 24:8 K:BB, 2.01 ERA.
Well, yes, Isringhausen could get the job back if he looks good in the middle relief role. But now on the disabled list with a lacerated right hand, Isringhausen's chances are slim to none for a while. Instead, Kyle McClellan has become a candidate. His 15 holds are tied for second with Luis Ayala of the Nationals. His domination with a 3:1 K:BB means he won't make many mistakes on his own account. The 23-year old rookie was a 25th round draft pick, but he came on a fast track after failing as a starter and dominating as a reliever – 54:10 K:BB in single- and double- A in 2007. Just a year later, a few mistakes by Franklin and he'll be considered for the job.

27. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
2008: 9/10 saves, 25.2 IP, 23:8 K:BB, 2.45 ERA.
2005-07: 27/32 saves, 67 IP, 73:38 K:BB, 3.13 ERA.
Manny Corpas was one of my favorite closers entering 2008, but damn, baseball's unpredictable. Corpas looked more like Bob Wickman on acid and suffered for it. With a 1:1 K:BB, he lost the job before really ever settling in. Enter the guy whose job he took midway through 2007: Brian Fuentes. The 33-year old lefty, once a coveted closer on the market until the Rockies needed him for the playoff run only to watch him blow four consecutive saves in June, has dominated. Continuing off a strong finish (six earned runs after moving to middle relief), Fuentes now could return to All-Star status of 2006. But watch out for possible candidates.
Possible Replacement
Taylor Buchholz
2008: 11 holds, 31.1 IP, 25:8 K:BB, 1.72 ERA.
Like Isringhausen, Corpas could regain the job since his stuff down the stretch last year was amazing, but look at Taylor Buchholz. The former top prospect in – who else? – the Phillies system suffered mightily as a starter. Now, though, Buchholz has a sub-2 ERA and allowed just two earned runs and one walk since May 5th. Also, if the Rockies continue to flounder 16 games under .500, Fuentes and his $5.5 million contract may be sent packing to a contender.

28. Salomon Torres, Brewers
2008: 6/6 saves, 34.1 IP, 26:14 K:BB, 2.62 ERA.
He did save 24 games the past two years for Pittsburgh, but he lost the job to Matt Capps after a good start in 2007 followed by several poor outings. He's only got six saves yet far, but the middle reliever has looked rather dominant. Torres hasn't allowed an earned run since getting the job on May 24th. His 1.80 ERA in May will certainly help his resume as he continues to fight for the job. The Brewers being the chase may make Torres one of the better pickups right now.
Possible Replacement
Brian Shouse
2008: 6 holds, 22 IP, 14:6 K:BB, 2.45 ERA.
Shouse has few save opportunities in his career and just six total, but the 39-year old has pitched over 290 career innings and will be seen as an important middle reliever for the Brewers. He's allowed one earned run since April, and if Torres pulls what he did with Pittsburgh, Shouse will then get an opportunity. Of course, that seems a bit down the line with Torres dealing aces right now.

29. Todd Jones, Tigers
2008: 8/8 saves, 21 IP, 9:10 K:BB, 4.71 ERA.
2005-07: 39/45 saves, 66 IP, 41:16 K:BB, 3.36 ERA.
Jones had just 33 strikeouts in 61 innings a year ago and now the 40-year old has more walks than Ks. To his credit, however, Jones hasn't blown a single save opportunity. Though, with Detroit stinking it up, Jones has often come into games in non-save opportunities and yielded just enough runs to make people squirm but leave satisfied with a win. How long Jones can keep on not completely blowing games could be the story of the season, but Leyland seems comfortable with the aging righty.
Possible Replacement
Joel Zumaya
2008: N/A.
He's already made a rehab outing and seems like he'll return by the all-star break. Sure, Jones may lose his stuff before Zumaya's return meaning someone else will get a shot, but Zumaya is the sure-fire bet to keep the job of any of Detroit's relievers. With a sick fastball and the 2006 dominance, look for Zumaya to challenge for the job right away. No doubt he has the mindset either with the fiery demeanor and all-out approach. The question lies in his arm's health, but Zumaya is the best opportunity to be a second-half stud closer pickup.

30. Joe Borowski, Indians
2008: 5/7 saves, 9 IP, 5:4 K:BB, 8.00 ERA.
2006-07: 40/48 saves, 135.1 IP, 61:25 K:BB, 4.39 ERA.
For three years now, it's been give the man a chance. Manager Eric Wedge has been deaf to everyone who wanted to remove the overweight and ineffective Joe Borowski or Bob Wickman from his closer spot in Cleveland. Fausto Carmona tried the job out, but he was horrifically pathetic. But finally, after blowing two saves and hitting the DL, the long-awaited Betancourt finally got his opportunity. For four seasons, Betancourt lit up batters as one of the more impressive middle relievers in the game. Wickman left, and Borowski got injured, and here came the new, sure-fire stud. And he ... flopped. He was 4-for-5 in save opportunities, but JoBo got the job back upon his return because the 33-year old has been atrocious this year. Betancourt's 6+ ERA combined with five home runs allowed has left a big hole of uncertainty in middle relief in addition to the closer spot. For now, JoBo somehow lives on.
Possible Replacement
Masahide Kobayashi
2008: 1 hold, 30 IP, 22:5 K:BB, 2.70 ERA.
Enough of Betancourt, give me some Kobayashi. Masahide Kobayashi has been a fine reliever and had a hell of a career in Japan – 227 career saves – so he certainly has the experience. It certainly looks like Borowski has cursed the mound for anyone who enters the ninth to close it out, but Kobayashi may break that trend. He has two saves and could be closing for yet another season if he gets the opportunity.